Fitting Probability Distributions and Statistical Trend Analysis of Rainfall of Agro-climatic Zone of West Bengal
This research aimed to identify the most appropriate probability distribution for modeling average monthly rainfall in the agro-climatic zones of West Bengal and to detect any trends in this data. The study utilized historical rainfall data spanning 51 years (1970-2020) obtained from the IMD in Pune...
Saved in:
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Technoscience Publications
2024-12-01
|
| Series: | Nature Environment and Pollution Technology |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://neptjournal.com/upload-images/(51)B-4160.pdf |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| Summary: | This research aimed to identify the most appropriate probability distribution for modeling average monthly rainfall in the agro-climatic zones of West Bengal and to detect any trends in this data. The study utilized historical rainfall data spanning 51 years (1970-2020) obtained from the IMD in Pune. To determine the best-fitting distribution and assess trends, 23 different probability distributions were employed, with the Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator used for trend analysis. Goodness-of-fit tests, including the Kolmogorov-Smirnov, Anderson-Darling, and Chi-square tests, were employed to determine the most suitable distribution. The findings indicated that the Generalized Extreme Value, Gamma, and Lognormal (3-parameter) distributions were the best fits for two specific districts. The monthly rainfall distributions can be effectively used for predicting future monthly rainfall events in the region. The Mann-Kendall test revealed an increasing trend in rainfall for Kalimpong and Nadia Districts and a decreasing trend for Malda District. |
|---|---|
| ISSN: | 0972-6268 2395-3454 |