Preparing for Uncertain Water Futures: An Analysis of Intrannual Snowpack Processes in the Southern Sierra Nevada Under Climate Change

Abstract In this paper, we seek to understand how useful the Western United States Dynamically Downscaled Data set (WUS‐D3) is to water managers in California, as well as how climate change will impact the state's water resources. We analyze intrannual snowpack water storage skill of this data...

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Main Authors: Kyle Greenspan, Branwen Williams, Heather Williams, Stefan Rahimi, Alex Hall, Lei Huang
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Wiley 2025-08-01
Series:Geophysical Research Letters
Subjects:
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL115768
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author Kyle Greenspan
Branwen Williams
Heather Williams
Stefan Rahimi
Alex Hall
Lei Huang
author_facet Kyle Greenspan
Branwen Williams
Heather Williams
Stefan Rahimi
Alex Hall
Lei Huang
author_sort Kyle Greenspan
collection DOAJ
description Abstract In this paper, we seek to understand how useful the Western United States Dynamically Downscaled Data set (WUS‐D3) is to water managers in California, as well as how climate change will impact the state's water resources. We analyze intrannual snowpack water storage skill of this data set over the southern Sierra Nevada, and project future changes in timing and magnitude of snowpack water storage over this region. We find that WUS‐D3 downscaled climate models are skillful at capturing peak SWE timing, but overestimate peak SWE and melt date. The model ensemble projects diminished peak SWE and earlier, shorter snowmelt seasons. Further improvements in intrannual skill of these data would be useful to water managers. Altered timing and magnitude of southern Sierra snowpack water storage will have impacts in that region and throughout California, indicating that we must accelerate climate change adaptation planning.
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institution Kabale University
issn 0094-8276
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publishDate 2025-08-01
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series Geophysical Research Letters
spelling doaj-art-f8883d72bea349bebe9bfc2cabe111cf2025-08-20T04:02:27ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072025-08-015215n/an/a10.1029/2025GL115768Preparing for Uncertain Water Futures: An Analysis of Intrannual Snowpack Processes in the Southern Sierra Nevada Under Climate ChangeKyle Greenspan0Branwen Williams1Heather Williams2Stefan Rahimi3Alex Hall4Lei Huang5Kravis Department of Integrated Sciences Claremont McKenna College Claremont CA USAKravis Department of Integrated Sciences Claremont McKenna College Claremont CA USADepartments of Politics & Environmental Analysis Pomona College Claremont CA USADepartment of Atmospheric Science University of Wyoming Laramie WY USACenter for Climate Science University of California, Los Angeles Los Angeles CA USACenter for Climate Science University of California, Los Angeles Los Angeles CA USAAbstract In this paper, we seek to understand how useful the Western United States Dynamically Downscaled Data set (WUS‐D3) is to water managers in California, as well as how climate change will impact the state's water resources. We analyze intrannual snowpack water storage skill of this data set over the southern Sierra Nevada, and project future changes in timing and magnitude of snowpack water storage over this region. We find that WUS‐D3 downscaled climate models are skillful at capturing peak SWE timing, but overestimate peak SWE and melt date. The model ensemble projects diminished peak SWE and earlier, shorter snowmelt seasons. Further improvements in intrannual skill of these data would be useful to water managers. Altered timing and magnitude of southern Sierra snowpack water storage will have impacts in that region and throughout California, indicating that we must accelerate climate change adaptation planning.https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL115768Sierra Nevadasnowpackclimate changewestern United States dynamically downscaled data setCaliforniawater resources
spellingShingle Kyle Greenspan
Branwen Williams
Heather Williams
Stefan Rahimi
Alex Hall
Lei Huang
Preparing for Uncertain Water Futures: An Analysis of Intrannual Snowpack Processes in the Southern Sierra Nevada Under Climate Change
Geophysical Research Letters
Sierra Nevada
snowpack
climate change
western United States dynamically downscaled data set
California
water resources
title Preparing for Uncertain Water Futures: An Analysis of Intrannual Snowpack Processes in the Southern Sierra Nevada Under Climate Change
title_full Preparing for Uncertain Water Futures: An Analysis of Intrannual Snowpack Processes in the Southern Sierra Nevada Under Climate Change
title_fullStr Preparing for Uncertain Water Futures: An Analysis of Intrannual Snowpack Processes in the Southern Sierra Nevada Under Climate Change
title_full_unstemmed Preparing for Uncertain Water Futures: An Analysis of Intrannual Snowpack Processes in the Southern Sierra Nevada Under Climate Change
title_short Preparing for Uncertain Water Futures: An Analysis of Intrannual Snowpack Processes in the Southern Sierra Nevada Under Climate Change
title_sort preparing for uncertain water futures an analysis of intrannual snowpack processes in the southern sierra nevada under climate change
topic Sierra Nevada
snowpack
climate change
western United States dynamically downscaled data set
California
water resources
url https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL115768
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