Uncertainty and Sensitivity in the Development Lifecycle of Advanced Aerospace Systems
Reliability and assurance of the research enterprise for the development and acquisition of advanced technologies is urgently needed. In particular, aerospace systems are susceptible to endogenous and exogenous disruptions throughout their lifecycles. A principled approach is needed to address sensi...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IEEE
2025-01-01
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| Series: | IEEE Open Journal of Systems Engineering |
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| Online Access: | https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/10972117/ |
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| author | Timothy L. Eddy Christopher M. VanYe Beatrice E. Li Thomas L. Polmateer Christopher P. Goyne John Friend David Barnes Megan E. Gunn Igor Linkov David L. Slutzky James H. Lambert |
| author_facet | Timothy L. Eddy Christopher M. VanYe Beatrice E. Li Thomas L. Polmateer Christopher P. Goyne John Friend David Barnes Megan E. Gunn Igor Linkov David L. Slutzky James H. Lambert |
| author_sort | Timothy L. Eddy |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Reliability and assurance of the research enterprise for the development and acquisition of advanced technologies is urgently needed. In particular, aerospace systems are susceptible to endogenous and exogenous disruptions throughout their lifecycles. A principled approach is needed to address sensitivity, trust, security, and risk in the research and development enterprise. A particular concern is for integrated hardware and software devices that are essential to aerospace systems. This article introduces a method for enterprise-level sensitivity analysis of emergent and future conditions that relies on scenario-based preferences to identify the conditions that are most disruptive to the systems acquisition schedule. We demonstrate the method via a comprehensive analysis for the acquisition of advanced hypersonic glide vehicle technologies using thirteen importance/ordering criteria, forty initiatives, and ten scenarios. The approach and results are applicable to reliability assurance and management for a variety of high technology systems. Additionally, the approach is applicable to enterprise reliability and assurance improvements for supply chains, manufacturing, maintenance, repair, etc. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-f80ff17b8ebd4e828ee3a8a5600c7410 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2771-9987 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | IEEE |
| record_format | Article |
| series | IEEE Open Journal of Systems Engineering |
| spelling | doaj-art-f80ff17b8ebd4e828ee3a8a5600c74102025-08-20T03:17:28ZengIEEEIEEE Open Journal of Systems Engineering2771-99872025-01-013243810.1109/OJSE.2025.356314910972117Uncertainty and Sensitivity in the Development Lifecycle of Advanced Aerospace SystemsTimothy L. Eddy0Christopher M. VanYe1https://orcid.org/0009-0003-4158-345XBeatrice E. Li2Thomas L. Polmateer3https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1034-6980Christopher P. Goyne4John Friend5David Barnes6Megan E. Gunn7https://orcid.org/0009-0006-5304-5984Igor Linkov8https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0823-8107David L. Slutzky9James H. Lambert10https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0697-8339University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USAUniversity of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USAUniversity of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USAUniversity of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USAUniversity of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USAStrategic Programs and Critical Infrastructure Division, Systems Planning & Analysis Inc., Alexandria, VA, USAStrategic Programs and Critical Infrastructure Division, Systems Planning & Analysis Inc., Alexandria, VA, USAUniversity of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USAEngineering Research and Development Center, US Army Corps of Engineers, Concord, MA, USAUniversity of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USAUniversity of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USAReliability and assurance of the research enterprise for the development and acquisition of advanced technologies is urgently needed. In particular, aerospace systems are susceptible to endogenous and exogenous disruptions throughout their lifecycles. A principled approach is needed to address sensitivity, trust, security, and risk in the research and development enterprise. A particular concern is for integrated hardware and software devices that are essential to aerospace systems. This article introduces a method for enterprise-level sensitivity analysis of emergent and future conditions that relies on scenario-based preferences to identify the conditions that are most disruptive to the systems acquisition schedule. We demonstrate the method via a comprehensive analysis for the acquisition of advanced hypersonic glide vehicle technologies using thirteen importance/ordering criteria, forty initiatives, and ten scenarios. The approach and results are applicable to reliability assurance and management for a variety of high technology systems. Additionally, the approach is applicable to enterprise reliability and assurance improvements for supply chains, manufacturing, maintenance, repair, etc.https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/10972117/Epistemic uncertaintiesimpact analysisimportance measureslarge-scale systemsrisk managementscenario-based preferences |
| spellingShingle | Timothy L. Eddy Christopher M. VanYe Beatrice E. Li Thomas L. Polmateer Christopher P. Goyne John Friend David Barnes Megan E. Gunn Igor Linkov David L. Slutzky James H. Lambert Uncertainty and Sensitivity in the Development Lifecycle of Advanced Aerospace Systems IEEE Open Journal of Systems Engineering Epistemic uncertainties impact analysis importance measures large-scale systems risk management scenario-based preferences |
| title | Uncertainty and Sensitivity in the Development Lifecycle of Advanced Aerospace Systems |
| title_full | Uncertainty and Sensitivity in the Development Lifecycle of Advanced Aerospace Systems |
| title_fullStr | Uncertainty and Sensitivity in the Development Lifecycle of Advanced Aerospace Systems |
| title_full_unstemmed | Uncertainty and Sensitivity in the Development Lifecycle of Advanced Aerospace Systems |
| title_short | Uncertainty and Sensitivity in the Development Lifecycle of Advanced Aerospace Systems |
| title_sort | uncertainty and sensitivity in the development lifecycle of advanced aerospace systems |
| topic | Epistemic uncertainties impact analysis importance measures large-scale systems risk management scenario-based preferences |
| url | https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/10972117/ |
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