Potential impact of annual vaccination with reformulated COVID-19 vaccines: Lessons from the US COVID-19 scenario modeling hub.
<h4>Background</h4>Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to cause significant hospitalizations and deaths in the United States. Its continued burden and the impact of annually reformulated vaccines remain unclear. Here, we present projections of COVID-19 hospitalizations and deat...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2024-04-01
|
| Series: | PLoS Medicine |
| Online Access: | https://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.1004387&type=printable |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1850159645432217600 |
|---|---|
| author | Sung-Mok Jung Sara L Loo Emily Howerton Lucie Contamin Claire P Smith Erica C Carcelén Katie Yan Samantha J Bents John Levander Jessi Espino Joseph C Lemaitre Koji Sato Clifton D McKee Alison L Hill Matteo Chinazzi Jessica T Davis Kunpeng Mu Alessandro Vespignani Erik T Rosenstrom Sebastian A Rodriguez-Cartes Julie S Ivy Maria E Mayorga Julie L Swann Guido España Sean Cavany Sean M Moore T Alex Perkins Shi Chen Rajib Paul Daniel Janies Jean-Claude Thill Ajitesh Srivastava Majd Al Aawar Kaiming Bi Shraddha Ramdas Bandekar Anass Bouchnita Spencer J Fox Lauren Ancel Meyers Przemyslaw Porebski Srini Venkatramanan Aniruddha Adiga Benjamin Hurt Brian Klahn Joseph Outten Jiangzhuo Chen Henning Mortveit Amanda Wilson Stefan Hoops Parantapa Bhattacharya Dustin Machi Anil Vullikanti Bryan Lewis Madhav Marathe Harry Hochheiser Michael C Runge Katriona Shea Shaun Truelove Cécile Viboud Justin Lessler |
| author_facet | Sung-Mok Jung Sara L Loo Emily Howerton Lucie Contamin Claire P Smith Erica C Carcelén Katie Yan Samantha J Bents John Levander Jessi Espino Joseph C Lemaitre Koji Sato Clifton D McKee Alison L Hill Matteo Chinazzi Jessica T Davis Kunpeng Mu Alessandro Vespignani Erik T Rosenstrom Sebastian A Rodriguez-Cartes Julie S Ivy Maria E Mayorga Julie L Swann Guido España Sean Cavany Sean M Moore T Alex Perkins Shi Chen Rajib Paul Daniel Janies Jean-Claude Thill Ajitesh Srivastava Majd Al Aawar Kaiming Bi Shraddha Ramdas Bandekar Anass Bouchnita Spencer J Fox Lauren Ancel Meyers Przemyslaw Porebski Srini Venkatramanan Aniruddha Adiga Benjamin Hurt Brian Klahn Joseph Outten Jiangzhuo Chen Henning Mortveit Amanda Wilson Stefan Hoops Parantapa Bhattacharya Dustin Machi Anil Vullikanti Bryan Lewis Madhav Marathe Harry Hochheiser Michael C Runge Katriona Shea Shaun Truelove Cécile Viboud Justin Lessler |
| author_sort | Sung-Mok Jung |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <h4>Background</h4>Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to cause significant hospitalizations and deaths in the United States. Its continued burden and the impact of annually reformulated vaccines remain unclear. Here, we present projections of COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths in the United States for the next 2 years under 2 plausible assumptions about immune escape (20% per year and 50% per year) and 3 possible CDC recommendations for the use of annually reformulated vaccines (no recommendation, vaccination for those aged 65 years and over, vaccination for all eligible age groups based on FDA approval).<h4>Methods and findings</h4>The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub solicited projections of COVID-19 hospitalization and deaths between April 15, 2023 and April 15, 2025 under 6 scenarios representing the intersection of considered levels of immune escape and vaccination. Annually reformulated vaccines are assumed to be 65% effective against symptomatic infection with strains circulating on June 15 of each year and to become available on September 1. Age- and state-specific coverage in recommended groups was assumed to match that seen for the first (fall 2021) COVID-19 booster. State and national projections from 8 modeling teams were ensembled to produce projections for each scenario and expected reductions in disease outcomes due to vaccination over the projection period. From April 15, 2023 to April 15, 2025, COVID-19 is projected to cause annual epidemics peaking November to January. In the most pessimistic scenario (high immune escape, no vaccination recommendation), we project 2.1 million (90% projection interval (PI) [1,438,000, 4,270,000]) hospitalizations and 209,000 (90% PI [139,000, 461,000]) deaths, exceeding pre-pandemic mortality of influenza and pneumonia. In high immune escape scenarios, vaccination of those aged 65+ results in 230,000 (95% confidence interval (CI) [104,000, 355,000]) fewer hospitalizations and 33,000 (95% CI [12,000, 54,000]) fewer deaths, while vaccination of all eligible individuals results in 431,000 (95% CI: 264,000-598,000) fewer hospitalizations and 49,000 (95% CI [29,000, 69,000]) fewer deaths.<h4>Conclusions</h4>COVID-19 is projected to be a significant public health threat over the coming 2 years. Broad vaccination has the potential to substantially reduce the burden of this disease, saving tens of thousands of lives each year. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-f7a01a06e8a543d79ce8eb85263d9b4f |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 1549-1277 1549-1676 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-04-01 |
| publisher | Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | PLoS Medicine |
| spelling | doaj-art-f7a01a06e8a543d79ce8eb85263d9b4f2025-08-20T02:23:27ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS Medicine1549-12771549-16762024-04-01214e100438710.1371/journal.pmed.1004387Potential impact of annual vaccination with reformulated COVID-19 vaccines: Lessons from the US COVID-19 scenario modeling hub.Sung-Mok JungSara L LooEmily HowertonLucie ContaminClaire P SmithErica C CarcelénKatie YanSamantha J BentsJohn LevanderJessi EspinoJoseph C LemaitreKoji SatoClifton D McKeeAlison L HillMatteo ChinazziJessica T DavisKunpeng MuAlessandro VespignaniErik T RosenstromSebastian A Rodriguez-CartesJulie S IvyMaria E MayorgaJulie L SwannGuido EspañaSean CavanySean M MooreT Alex PerkinsShi ChenRajib PaulDaniel JaniesJean-Claude ThillAjitesh SrivastavaMajd Al AawarKaiming BiShraddha Ramdas BandekarAnass BouchnitaSpencer J FoxLauren Ancel MeyersPrzemyslaw PorebskiSrini VenkatramananAniruddha AdigaBenjamin HurtBrian KlahnJoseph OuttenJiangzhuo ChenHenning MortveitAmanda WilsonStefan HoopsParantapa BhattacharyaDustin MachiAnil VullikantiBryan LewisMadhav MaratheHarry HochheiserMichael C RungeKatriona SheaShaun TrueloveCécile ViboudJustin Lessler<h4>Background</h4>Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to cause significant hospitalizations and deaths in the United States. Its continued burden and the impact of annually reformulated vaccines remain unclear. Here, we present projections of COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths in the United States for the next 2 years under 2 plausible assumptions about immune escape (20% per year and 50% per year) and 3 possible CDC recommendations for the use of annually reformulated vaccines (no recommendation, vaccination for those aged 65 years and over, vaccination for all eligible age groups based on FDA approval).<h4>Methods and findings</h4>The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub solicited projections of COVID-19 hospitalization and deaths between April 15, 2023 and April 15, 2025 under 6 scenarios representing the intersection of considered levels of immune escape and vaccination. Annually reformulated vaccines are assumed to be 65% effective against symptomatic infection with strains circulating on June 15 of each year and to become available on September 1. Age- and state-specific coverage in recommended groups was assumed to match that seen for the first (fall 2021) COVID-19 booster. State and national projections from 8 modeling teams were ensembled to produce projections for each scenario and expected reductions in disease outcomes due to vaccination over the projection period. From April 15, 2023 to April 15, 2025, COVID-19 is projected to cause annual epidemics peaking November to January. In the most pessimistic scenario (high immune escape, no vaccination recommendation), we project 2.1 million (90% projection interval (PI) [1,438,000, 4,270,000]) hospitalizations and 209,000 (90% PI [139,000, 461,000]) deaths, exceeding pre-pandemic mortality of influenza and pneumonia. In high immune escape scenarios, vaccination of those aged 65+ results in 230,000 (95% confidence interval (CI) [104,000, 355,000]) fewer hospitalizations and 33,000 (95% CI [12,000, 54,000]) fewer deaths, while vaccination of all eligible individuals results in 431,000 (95% CI: 264,000-598,000) fewer hospitalizations and 49,000 (95% CI [29,000, 69,000]) fewer deaths.<h4>Conclusions</h4>COVID-19 is projected to be a significant public health threat over the coming 2 years. Broad vaccination has the potential to substantially reduce the burden of this disease, saving tens of thousands of lives each year.https://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.1004387&type=printable |
| spellingShingle | Sung-Mok Jung Sara L Loo Emily Howerton Lucie Contamin Claire P Smith Erica C Carcelén Katie Yan Samantha J Bents John Levander Jessi Espino Joseph C Lemaitre Koji Sato Clifton D McKee Alison L Hill Matteo Chinazzi Jessica T Davis Kunpeng Mu Alessandro Vespignani Erik T Rosenstrom Sebastian A Rodriguez-Cartes Julie S Ivy Maria E Mayorga Julie L Swann Guido España Sean Cavany Sean M Moore T Alex Perkins Shi Chen Rajib Paul Daniel Janies Jean-Claude Thill Ajitesh Srivastava Majd Al Aawar Kaiming Bi Shraddha Ramdas Bandekar Anass Bouchnita Spencer J Fox Lauren Ancel Meyers Przemyslaw Porebski Srini Venkatramanan Aniruddha Adiga Benjamin Hurt Brian Klahn Joseph Outten Jiangzhuo Chen Henning Mortveit Amanda Wilson Stefan Hoops Parantapa Bhattacharya Dustin Machi Anil Vullikanti Bryan Lewis Madhav Marathe Harry Hochheiser Michael C Runge Katriona Shea Shaun Truelove Cécile Viboud Justin Lessler Potential impact of annual vaccination with reformulated COVID-19 vaccines: Lessons from the US COVID-19 scenario modeling hub. PLoS Medicine |
| title | Potential impact of annual vaccination with reformulated COVID-19 vaccines: Lessons from the US COVID-19 scenario modeling hub. |
| title_full | Potential impact of annual vaccination with reformulated COVID-19 vaccines: Lessons from the US COVID-19 scenario modeling hub. |
| title_fullStr | Potential impact of annual vaccination with reformulated COVID-19 vaccines: Lessons from the US COVID-19 scenario modeling hub. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Potential impact of annual vaccination with reformulated COVID-19 vaccines: Lessons from the US COVID-19 scenario modeling hub. |
| title_short | Potential impact of annual vaccination with reformulated COVID-19 vaccines: Lessons from the US COVID-19 scenario modeling hub. |
| title_sort | potential impact of annual vaccination with reformulated covid 19 vaccines lessons from the us covid 19 scenario modeling hub |
| url | https://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.1004387&type=printable |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT sungmokjung potentialimpactofannualvaccinationwithreformulatedcovid19vaccineslessonsfromtheuscovid19scenariomodelinghub AT saralloo potentialimpactofannualvaccinationwithreformulatedcovid19vaccineslessonsfromtheuscovid19scenariomodelinghub AT emilyhowerton potentialimpactofannualvaccinationwithreformulatedcovid19vaccineslessonsfromtheuscovid19scenariomodelinghub AT luciecontamin potentialimpactofannualvaccinationwithreformulatedcovid19vaccineslessonsfromtheuscovid19scenariomodelinghub AT clairepsmith potentialimpactofannualvaccinationwithreformulatedcovid19vaccineslessonsfromtheuscovid19scenariomodelinghub AT ericaccarcelen potentialimpactofannualvaccinationwithreformulatedcovid19vaccineslessonsfromtheuscovid19scenariomodelinghub AT katieyan potentialimpactofannualvaccinationwithreformulatedcovid19vaccineslessonsfromtheuscovid19scenariomodelinghub AT samanthajbents potentialimpactofannualvaccinationwithreformulatedcovid19vaccineslessonsfromtheuscovid19scenariomodelinghub AT johnlevander potentialimpactofannualvaccinationwithreformulatedcovid19vaccineslessonsfromtheuscovid19scenariomodelinghub AT jessiespino potentialimpactofannualvaccinationwithreformulatedcovid19vaccineslessonsfromtheuscovid19scenariomodelinghub AT josephclemaitre potentialimpactofannualvaccinationwithreformulatedcovid19vaccineslessonsfromtheuscovid19scenariomodelinghub AT kojisato potentialimpactofannualvaccinationwithreformulatedcovid19vaccineslessonsfromtheuscovid19scenariomodelinghub AT cliftondmckee potentialimpactofannualvaccinationwithreformulatedcovid19vaccineslessonsfromtheuscovid19scenariomodelinghub AT alisonlhill potentialimpactofannualvaccinationwithreformulatedcovid19vaccineslessonsfromtheuscovid19scenariomodelinghub AT matteochinazzi potentialimpactofannualvaccinationwithreformulatedcovid19vaccineslessonsfromtheuscovid19scenariomodelinghub AT jessicatdavis potentialimpactofannualvaccinationwithreformulatedcovid19vaccineslessonsfromtheuscovid19scenariomodelinghub AT kunpengmu potentialimpactofannualvaccinationwithreformulatedcovid19vaccineslessonsfromtheuscovid19scenariomodelinghub AT alessandrovespignani potentialimpactofannualvaccinationwithreformulatedcovid19vaccineslessonsfromtheuscovid19scenariomodelinghub AT eriktrosenstrom potentialimpactofannualvaccinationwithreformulatedcovid19vaccineslessonsfromtheuscovid19scenariomodelinghub AT sebastianarodriguezcartes potentialimpactofannualvaccinationwithreformulatedcovid19vaccineslessonsfromtheuscovid19scenariomodelinghub AT juliesivy potentialimpactofannualvaccinationwithreformulatedcovid19vaccineslessonsfromtheuscovid19scenariomodelinghub AT mariaemayorga potentialimpactofannualvaccinationwithreformulatedcovid19vaccineslessonsfromtheuscovid19scenariomodelinghub AT julielswann potentialimpactofannualvaccinationwithreformulatedcovid19vaccineslessonsfromtheuscovid19scenariomodelinghub AT guidoespana potentialimpactofannualvaccinationwithreformulatedcovid19vaccineslessonsfromtheuscovid19scenariomodelinghub AT seancavany potentialimpactofannualvaccinationwithreformulatedcovid19vaccineslessonsfromtheuscovid19scenariomodelinghub AT seanmmoore potentialimpactofannualvaccinationwithreformulatedcovid19vaccineslessonsfromtheuscovid19scenariomodelinghub AT talexperkins potentialimpactofannualvaccinationwithreformulatedcovid19vaccineslessonsfromtheuscovid19scenariomodelinghub AT shichen potentialimpactofannualvaccinationwithreformulatedcovid19vaccineslessonsfromtheuscovid19scenariomodelinghub AT rajibpaul potentialimpactofannualvaccinationwithreformulatedcovid19vaccineslessonsfromtheuscovid19scenariomodelinghub AT danieljanies potentialimpactofannualvaccinationwithreformulatedcovid19vaccineslessonsfromtheuscovid19scenariomodelinghub AT jeanclaudethill potentialimpactofannualvaccinationwithreformulatedcovid19vaccineslessonsfromtheuscovid19scenariomodelinghub AT ajiteshsrivastava potentialimpactofannualvaccinationwithreformulatedcovid19vaccineslessonsfromtheuscovid19scenariomodelinghub AT majdalaawar potentialimpactofannualvaccinationwithreformulatedcovid19vaccineslessonsfromtheuscovid19scenariomodelinghub AT kaimingbi potentialimpactofannualvaccinationwithreformulatedcovid19vaccineslessonsfromtheuscovid19scenariomodelinghub AT shraddharamdasbandekar potentialimpactofannualvaccinationwithreformulatedcovid19vaccineslessonsfromtheuscovid19scenariomodelinghub AT anassbouchnita potentialimpactofannualvaccinationwithreformulatedcovid19vaccineslessonsfromtheuscovid19scenariomodelinghub AT spencerjfox potentialimpactofannualvaccinationwithreformulatedcovid19vaccineslessonsfromtheuscovid19scenariomodelinghub AT laurenancelmeyers potentialimpactofannualvaccinationwithreformulatedcovid19vaccineslessonsfromtheuscovid19scenariomodelinghub AT przemyslawporebski potentialimpactofannualvaccinationwithreformulatedcovid19vaccineslessonsfromtheuscovid19scenariomodelinghub AT srinivenkatramanan potentialimpactofannualvaccinationwithreformulatedcovid19vaccineslessonsfromtheuscovid19scenariomodelinghub AT aniruddhaadiga potentialimpactofannualvaccinationwithreformulatedcovid19vaccineslessonsfromtheuscovid19scenariomodelinghub AT benjaminhurt potentialimpactofannualvaccinationwithreformulatedcovid19vaccineslessonsfromtheuscovid19scenariomodelinghub AT brianklahn potentialimpactofannualvaccinationwithreformulatedcovid19vaccineslessonsfromtheuscovid19scenariomodelinghub AT josephoutten potentialimpactofannualvaccinationwithreformulatedcovid19vaccineslessonsfromtheuscovid19scenariomodelinghub AT jiangzhuochen potentialimpactofannualvaccinationwithreformulatedcovid19vaccineslessonsfromtheuscovid19scenariomodelinghub AT henningmortveit potentialimpactofannualvaccinationwithreformulatedcovid19vaccineslessonsfromtheuscovid19scenariomodelinghub AT amandawilson potentialimpactofannualvaccinationwithreformulatedcovid19vaccineslessonsfromtheuscovid19scenariomodelinghub AT stefanhoops potentialimpactofannualvaccinationwithreformulatedcovid19vaccineslessonsfromtheuscovid19scenariomodelinghub AT parantapabhattacharya potentialimpactofannualvaccinationwithreformulatedcovid19vaccineslessonsfromtheuscovid19scenariomodelinghub AT dustinmachi potentialimpactofannualvaccinationwithreformulatedcovid19vaccineslessonsfromtheuscovid19scenariomodelinghub AT anilvullikanti potentialimpactofannualvaccinationwithreformulatedcovid19vaccineslessonsfromtheuscovid19scenariomodelinghub AT bryanlewis potentialimpactofannualvaccinationwithreformulatedcovid19vaccineslessonsfromtheuscovid19scenariomodelinghub AT madhavmarathe potentialimpactofannualvaccinationwithreformulatedcovid19vaccineslessonsfromtheuscovid19scenariomodelinghub AT harryhochheiser potentialimpactofannualvaccinationwithreformulatedcovid19vaccineslessonsfromtheuscovid19scenariomodelinghub AT michaelcrunge potentialimpactofannualvaccinationwithreformulatedcovid19vaccineslessonsfromtheuscovid19scenariomodelinghub AT katrionashea potentialimpactofannualvaccinationwithreformulatedcovid19vaccineslessonsfromtheuscovid19scenariomodelinghub AT shauntruelove potentialimpactofannualvaccinationwithreformulatedcovid19vaccineslessonsfromtheuscovid19scenariomodelinghub AT cecileviboud potentialimpactofannualvaccinationwithreformulatedcovid19vaccineslessonsfromtheuscovid19scenariomodelinghub AT justinlessler potentialimpactofannualvaccinationwithreformulatedcovid19vaccineslessonsfromtheuscovid19scenariomodelinghub |