Paleoclimate proxy records suggest reduced tropical Pacific zonal asymmetry under sustained global warming
Abstract Pronounced model-observation discrepancies in the changes of tropical Pacific zonal sea surface temperature gradient during the satellite era imply systematic model deficiencies. However, the relatively short high-quality instrumental record hampers robustly determining the response of trop...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2025-02-01
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| Series: | Communications Earth & Environment |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02039-0 |
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| author | Eui-Seok Chung Seong-Joong Kim Keith B. Rodgers Sang-Yoon Jun Joo-Hong Kim Sun-Seon Lee Kyung-Sook Yun |
| author_facet | Eui-Seok Chung Seong-Joong Kim Keith B. Rodgers Sang-Yoon Jun Joo-Hong Kim Sun-Seon Lee Kyung-Sook Yun |
| author_sort | Eui-Seok Chung |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Pronounced model-observation discrepancies in the changes of tropical Pacific zonal sea surface temperature gradient during the satellite era imply systematic model deficiencies. However, the relatively short high-quality instrumental record hampers robustly determining the response of tropical Pacific sea surface temperature to greenhouse gas increases. By adopting paleoclimate proxy records along with a series of climate model simulations, here we show that the zonal gradient is likely to decrease under sustained strong forcing. Paleoclimate proxy records indicate an overall increase of the zonal gradient over time, which has been accompanied by global-mean cooling associated with decreasing carbon dioxide concentrations. Model simulations are found to broadly reproduce the distinct contrast between warmer high carbon dioxide climates and the opposite climates, albeit with large inter-model discrepancy. The qualitative agreement among paleoclimate proxy records and modeled representations therefore lends some important credence to the sign of model-projected future tropical Pacific mean state change. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-f73390cdd2b444768abb34372147a83c |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2662-4435 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-02-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Communications Earth & Environment |
| spelling | doaj-art-f73390cdd2b444768abb34372147a83c2025-02-09T12:56:04ZengNature PortfolioCommunications Earth & Environment2662-44352025-02-016111110.1038/s43247-025-02039-0Paleoclimate proxy records suggest reduced tropical Pacific zonal asymmetry under sustained global warmingEui-Seok Chung0Seong-Joong Kim1Keith B. Rodgers2Sang-Yoon Jun3Joo-Hong Kim4Sun-Seon Lee5Kyung-Sook Yun6Division of Ocean and Atmosphere Sciences, Korea Polar Research InstituteKOPRI School, University of Science and TechnologyWPI-Advanced Institute for Marine Ecosystem Change, Tohoku UniversityDivision of Ocean and Atmosphere Sciences, Korea Polar Research InstituteDivision of Ocean and Atmosphere Sciences, Korea Polar Research InstituteCenter for Climate Physics, Institute for Basic ScienceCenter for Climate Physics, Institute for Basic ScienceAbstract Pronounced model-observation discrepancies in the changes of tropical Pacific zonal sea surface temperature gradient during the satellite era imply systematic model deficiencies. However, the relatively short high-quality instrumental record hampers robustly determining the response of tropical Pacific sea surface temperature to greenhouse gas increases. By adopting paleoclimate proxy records along with a series of climate model simulations, here we show that the zonal gradient is likely to decrease under sustained strong forcing. Paleoclimate proxy records indicate an overall increase of the zonal gradient over time, which has been accompanied by global-mean cooling associated with decreasing carbon dioxide concentrations. Model simulations are found to broadly reproduce the distinct contrast between warmer high carbon dioxide climates and the opposite climates, albeit with large inter-model discrepancy. The qualitative agreement among paleoclimate proxy records and modeled representations therefore lends some important credence to the sign of model-projected future tropical Pacific mean state change.https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02039-0 |
| spellingShingle | Eui-Seok Chung Seong-Joong Kim Keith B. Rodgers Sang-Yoon Jun Joo-Hong Kim Sun-Seon Lee Kyung-Sook Yun Paleoclimate proxy records suggest reduced tropical Pacific zonal asymmetry under sustained global warming Communications Earth & Environment |
| title | Paleoclimate proxy records suggest reduced tropical Pacific zonal asymmetry under sustained global warming |
| title_full | Paleoclimate proxy records suggest reduced tropical Pacific zonal asymmetry under sustained global warming |
| title_fullStr | Paleoclimate proxy records suggest reduced tropical Pacific zonal asymmetry under sustained global warming |
| title_full_unstemmed | Paleoclimate proxy records suggest reduced tropical Pacific zonal asymmetry under sustained global warming |
| title_short | Paleoclimate proxy records suggest reduced tropical Pacific zonal asymmetry under sustained global warming |
| title_sort | paleoclimate proxy records suggest reduced tropical pacific zonal asymmetry under sustained global warming |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02039-0 |
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