The levelized cost of energy in the presence of uncertainty on the offshore wind speed
In the last few years, offshore wind power has experienced remarkable growth attributable to the need to mitigate the impact of global warming, which leads to policies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and fostering investment in renewable technologies. However, this endeavor raises concerns reg...
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| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Heliyon |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405844025001987 |
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| author | J. Pablo Arenas-López Mohamed Badaoui |
| author_facet | J. Pablo Arenas-López Mohamed Badaoui |
| author_sort | J. Pablo Arenas-López |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In the last few years, offshore wind power has experienced remarkable growth attributable to the need to mitigate the impact of global warming, which leads to policies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and fostering investment in renewable technologies. However, this endeavor raises concerns regarding economic assessment studies, where the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) is the most widely adopted index. This paper aims to propose an estimation of the LCOE under generation uncertainty induced by the intermittency of the wind and thus determine how the LCOE obtained by a deterministic approach is affected. To carry out this task, we employ two techniques based on stochastic differential equations to generate wind power scenarios. Utilizing 40 years of recorded wind speed data sourced from the MERRA-2 reanalysis, we derive the input parameters of the models from fitting to 4-parameter Dagum and Johnson SB probability distributions, which shows that accurate modeling of offshore wind speeds requires dealing with complex mathematical functions that need numerical computation. The findings show that the stochastic approach can estimate an uncertainty interval around the result obtained via the deterministic approach. In the case studies examined, the maximum and minimum values correspond to approximately ±1.6% and ±3.5% from the deterministic LCOE. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-f54e05b76c994d36b63e3d1f62b32eea |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2405-8440 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Heliyon |
| spelling | doaj-art-f54e05b76c994d36b63e3d1f62b32eea2025-02-02T05:28:17ZengElsevierHeliyon2405-84402025-01-01112e41818The levelized cost of energy in the presence of uncertainty on the offshore wind speedJ. Pablo Arenas-López0Mohamed Badaoui1Instituto Politécnico Nacional, Escuela Superior de Ingeniería Mecánica y Eléctrica, Av. Luis Enrique Erro s/n, 07738, Ciudad de México, MexicoCorresponding author.; Instituto Politécnico Nacional, Escuela Superior de Ingeniería Mecánica y Eléctrica, Av. Luis Enrique Erro s/n, 07738, Ciudad de México, MexicoIn the last few years, offshore wind power has experienced remarkable growth attributable to the need to mitigate the impact of global warming, which leads to policies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and fostering investment in renewable technologies. However, this endeavor raises concerns regarding economic assessment studies, where the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) is the most widely adopted index. This paper aims to propose an estimation of the LCOE under generation uncertainty induced by the intermittency of the wind and thus determine how the LCOE obtained by a deterministic approach is affected. To carry out this task, we employ two techniques based on stochastic differential equations to generate wind power scenarios. Utilizing 40 years of recorded wind speed data sourced from the MERRA-2 reanalysis, we derive the input parameters of the models from fitting to 4-parameter Dagum and Johnson SB probability distributions, which shows that accurate modeling of offshore wind speeds requires dealing with complex mathematical functions that need numerical computation. The findings show that the stochastic approach can estimate an uncertainty interval around the result obtained via the deterministic approach. In the case studies examined, the maximum and minimum values correspond to approximately ±1.6% and ±3.5% from the deterministic LCOE.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405844025001987Levelized cost of energyOffshore wind energyStochastic modelWind power uncertainty |
| spellingShingle | J. Pablo Arenas-López Mohamed Badaoui The levelized cost of energy in the presence of uncertainty on the offshore wind speed Heliyon Levelized cost of energy Offshore wind energy Stochastic model Wind power uncertainty |
| title | The levelized cost of energy in the presence of uncertainty on the offshore wind speed |
| title_full | The levelized cost of energy in the presence of uncertainty on the offshore wind speed |
| title_fullStr | The levelized cost of energy in the presence of uncertainty on the offshore wind speed |
| title_full_unstemmed | The levelized cost of energy in the presence of uncertainty on the offshore wind speed |
| title_short | The levelized cost of energy in the presence of uncertainty on the offshore wind speed |
| title_sort | levelized cost of energy in the presence of uncertainty on the offshore wind speed |
| topic | Levelized cost of energy Offshore wind energy Stochastic model Wind power uncertainty |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405844025001987 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT jpabloarenaslopez thelevelizedcostofenergyinthepresenceofuncertaintyontheoffshorewindspeed AT mohamedbadaoui thelevelizedcostofenergyinthepresenceofuncertaintyontheoffshorewindspeed AT jpabloarenaslopez levelizedcostofenergyinthepresenceofuncertaintyontheoffshorewindspeed AT mohamedbadaoui levelizedcostofenergyinthepresenceofuncertaintyontheoffshorewindspeed |