The potential for fuel reduction to reduce wildfire intensity in a warming California
Increasing fuel aridity due to climate warming has and will continue to increase wildfire danger in California. In addition to reducing global greenhouse gas emissions, one of the primary proposals for counteracting this increase in wildfire danger is a widespread expansion of hazardous fuel reducti...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
IOP Publishing
2025-01-01
|
| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/adab86 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1832577782040756224 |
|---|---|
| author | Patrick T Brown Scott J Strenfel Richard B Bagley Craig B Clements |
| author_facet | Patrick T Brown Scott J Strenfel Richard B Bagley Craig B Clements |
| author_sort | Patrick T Brown |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Increasing fuel aridity due to climate warming has and will continue to increase wildfire danger in California. In addition to reducing global greenhouse gas emissions, one of the primary proposals for counteracting this increase in wildfire danger is a widespread expansion of hazardous fuel reductions. Here, we quantify the potential for fuel reduction to reduce wildfire intensity using empirical relationships derived from historical observations with a novel combination of spatiotemporal resolution (0.375 km, instantaneous) and extent (48 million acres, 9 years). We use machine learning to quantify relationships between sixteen environmental conditions (including ten fuel characteristics and four temperature-affected aridity characteristics) and satellite-observed fire radiative power. We use the derived relationships to create fire intensity potential (FIP) maps for sixty historical weather snapshots at a 2 km and hourly resolution. We then place these weather snapshots in differing background climatological temperature and fuel characteristic conditions to quantify their independent and combined influence on FIP. We find that in order to offset the effect of climate warming under the SSP2-4.5 emissions scenario, fuel reduction would need to be maintained perpetually on ∼3 million acres (or 600 000 acres per year, 1% of our domain, at a 5 year return frequency) by 2050 and ∼8 million acres (or 1.6 million acres per year, 3% of our domain, at a 5 year return frequency) by 2090. Overall, we find substantial potential for fuel reduction to negate the effects of climate warming on FIP. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-f53114b7c0f044dba34543c8006fcb45 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-f53114b7c0f044dba34543c8006fcb452025-01-30T16:14:53ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262025-01-0120202404010.1088/1748-9326/adab86The potential for fuel reduction to reduce wildfire intensity in a warming CaliforniaPatrick T Brown0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5058-1718Scott J Strenfel1https://orcid.org/0009-0006-7864-1280Richard B Bagley2Craig B Clements3https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9999-8621The Breakthrough Institute , Berkeley, CA, United States of America; San José State University , San Jose, CA, United States of America; Johns Hopkins University , Washington, DC, United States of AmericaMeteorology Operations and Fire Science division, Pacific Gas and Electric Company , Oakland, CA, United States of AmericaMeteorology Operations and Fire Science division, Pacific Gas and Electric Company , Oakland, CA, United States of AmericaSan José State University , San Jose, CA, United States of America; Department of Meteorology and Climate Science, San José State University , San Jose, CA, United States of AmericaIncreasing fuel aridity due to climate warming has and will continue to increase wildfire danger in California. In addition to reducing global greenhouse gas emissions, one of the primary proposals for counteracting this increase in wildfire danger is a widespread expansion of hazardous fuel reductions. Here, we quantify the potential for fuel reduction to reduce wildfire intensity using empirical relationships derived from historical observations with a novel combination of spatiotemporal resolution (0.375 km, instantaneous) and extent (48 million acres, 9 years). We use machine learning to quantify relationships between sixteen environmental conditions (including ten fuel characteristics and four temperature-affected aridity characteristics) and satellite-observed fire radiative power. We use the derived relationships to create fire intensity potential (FIP) maps for sixty historical weather snapshots at a 2 km and hourly resolution. We then place these weather snapshots in differing background climatological temperature and fuel characteristic conditions to quantify their independent and combined influence on FIP. We find that in order to offset the effect of climate warming under the SSP2-4.5 emissions scenario, fuel reduction would need to be maintained perpetually on ∼3 million acres (or 600 000 acres per year, 1% of our domain, at a 5 year return frequency) by 2050 and ∼8 million acres (or 1.6 million acres per year, 3% of our domain, at a 5 year return frequency) by 2090. Overall, we find substantial potential for fuel reduction to negate the effects of climate warming on FIP.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/adab86wildfire intensityclimate changefuel aridityhazardous fuels reductionsmechanical thinningprescribed burning |
| spellingShingle | Patrick T Brown Scott J Strenfel Richard B Bagley Craig B Clements The potential for fuel reduction to reduce wildfire intensity in a warming California Environmental Research Letters wildfire intensity climate change fuel aridity hazardous fuels reductions mechanical thinning prescribed burning |
| title | The potential for fuel reduction to reduce wildfire intensity in a warming California |
| title_full | The potential for fuel reduction to reduce wildfire intensity in a warming California |
| title_fullStr | The potential for fuel reduction to reduce wildfire intensity in a warming California |
| title_full_unstemmed | The potential for fuel reduction to reduce wildfire intensity in a warming California |
| title_short | The potential for fuel reduction to reduce wildfire intensity in a warming California |
| title_sort | potential for fuel reduction to reduce wildfire intensity in a warming california |
| topic | wildfire intensity climate change fuel aridity hazardous fuels reductions mechanical thinning prescribed burning |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/adab86 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT patricktbrown thepotentialforfuelreductiontoreducewildfireintensityinawarmingcalifornia AT scottjstrenfel thepotentialforfuelreductiontoreducewildfireintensityinawarmingcalifornia AT richardbbagley thepotentialforfuelreductiontoreducewildfireintensityinawarmingcalifornia AT craigbclements thepotentialforfuelreductiontoreducewildfireintensityinawarmingcalifornia AT patricktbrown potentialforfuelreductiontoreducewildfireintensityinawarmingcalifornia AT scottjstrenfel potentialforfuelreductiontoreducewildfireintensityinawarmingcalifornia AT richardbbagley potentialforfuelreductiontoreducewildfireintensityinawarmingcalifornia AT craigbclements potentialforfuelreductiontoreducewildfireintensityinawarmingcalifornia |