When months matter; modelling the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the diagnostic pathway of Motor Neurone Disease (MND).
<h4>Background</h4>A diagnosis of MND takes an average 10-16 months from symptom onset. Early diagnosis is important to access supportive measures to maximise quality of life. The COVID-19 pandemic has caused significant delays in NHS pathways; the majority of GP appointments now occur o...
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Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2023-01-01
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| Series: | PLoS ONE |
| Online Access: | https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0259487&type=printable |
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| author | Ella Burchill Vishal Rawji Katy Styles Siobhan Rooney Patrick Stone Ronan Astin Nikhil Sharma |
| author_facet | Ella Burchill Vishal Rawji Katy Styles Siobhan Rooney Patrick Stone Ronan Astin Nikhil Sharma |
| author_sort | Ella Burchill |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <h4>Background</h4>A diagnosis of MND takes an average 10-16 months from symptom onset. Early diagnosis is important to access supportive measures to maximise quality of life. The COVID-19 pandemic has caused significant delays in NHS pathways; the majority of GP appointments now occur online with subsequent delays in secondary care assessment. Given the rapid progression of MND, patients may be disproportionately affected resulting in late stage new presentations. We used Monte Carlo simulation to model the pre-COVID-19 diagnostic pathway and then introduced plausible COVID-19 delays.<h4>Methods</h4>The diagnostic pathway was modelled using gamma distributions of time taken: 1) from symptom onset to GP presentation, 2) for specialist referral, and 3) for diagnosis reached after neurology appointment. We incorporated branches to simulate delays: when patients did not attend their GP and when the GP consultation did not result in referral. An emergency presentation was triggered when diagnostic pathway time was within 30 days of projected median survival. Total time-to-diagnosis was calculated over 100,000 iterations. The pre-COVID-19 model was estimated using published data and the Improving MND Care Survey 2019. We estimated COVID-19 delays using published statistics.<h4>Results</h4>The pre-COVID model reproduced known features of the MND diagnostic pathway, with a median time to diagnosis of 399 days and predicting 5.2% of MND patients present as undiagnosed emergencies. COVID-19 resulted in diagnostic delays from 558 days when only primary care was 25% delayed, to 915 days when both primary and secondary care were 75%. The model predicted an increase in emergency presentations ranging from 15.4%-44.5%.<h4>Interpretations</h4>The model suggests the COVID-19 pandemic will result in later-stage diagnoses and more emergency presentations of undiagnosed MND. Late-stage presentations may require rapid escalation to multidisciplinary care. Proactive recognition of acute and late-stage disease with altered service provision will optimise care for people with MND. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-f490edbfbede4cdb8b30cdb2f83dcf76 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 1932-6203 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2023-01-01 |
| publisher | Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | PLoS ONE |
| spelling | doaj-art-f490edbfbede4cdb8b30cdb2f83dcf762025-08-20T02:23:19ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS ONE1932-62032023-01-01181e025948710.1371/journal.pone.0259487When months matter; modelling the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the diagnostic pathway of Motor Neurone Disease (MND).Ella BurchillVishal RawjiKaty StylesSiobhan RooneyPatrick StoneRonan AstinNikhil Sharma<h4>Background</h4>A diagnosis of MND takes an average 10-16 months from symptom onset. Early diagnosis is important to access supportive measures to maximise quality of life. The COVID-19 pandemic has caused significant delays in NHS pathways; the majority of GP appointments now occur online with subsequent delays in secondary care assessment. Given the rapid progression of MND, patients may be disproportionately affected resulting in late stage new presentations. We used Monte Carlo simulation to model the pre-COVID-19 diagnostic pathway and then introduced plausible COVID-19 delays.<h4>Methods</h4>The diagnostic pathway was modelled using gamma distributions of time taken: 1) from symptom onset to GP presentation, 2) for specialist referral, and 3) for diagnosis reached after neurology appointment. We incorporated branches to simulate delays: when patients did not attend their GP and when the GP consultation did not result in referral. An emergency presentation was triggered when diagnostic pathway time was within 30 days of projected median survival. Total time-to-diagnosis was calculated over 100,000 iterations. The pre-COVID-19 model was estimated using published data and the Improving MND Care Survey 2019. We estimated COVID-19 delays using published statistics.<h4>Results</h4>The pre-COVID model reproduced known features of the MND diagnostic pathway, with a median time to diagnosis of 399 days and predicting 5.2% of MND patients present as undiagnosed emergencies. COVID-19 resulted in diagnostic delays from 558 days when only primary care was 25% delayed, to 915 days when both primary and secondary care were 75%. The model predicted an increase in emergency presentations ranging from 15.4%-44.5%.<h4>Interpretations</h4>The model suggests the COVID-19 pandemic will result in later-stage diagnoses and more emergency presentations of undiagnosed MND. Late-stage presentations may require rapid escalation to multidisciplinary care. Proactive recognition of acute and late-stage disease with altered service provision will optimise care for people with MND.https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0259487&type=printable |
| spellingShingle | Ella Burchill Vishal Rawji Katy Styles Siobhan Rooney Patrick Stone Ronan Astin Nikhil Sharma When months matter; modelling the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the diagnostic pathway of Motor Neurone Disease (MND). PLoS ONE |
| title | When months matter; modelling the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the diagnostic pathway of Motor Neurone Disease (MND). |
| title_full | When months matter; modelling the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the diagnostic pathway of Motor Neurone Disease (MND). |
| title_fullStr | When months matter; modelling the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the diagnostic pathway of Motor Neurone Disease (MND). |
| title_full_unstemmed | When months matter; modelling the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the diagnostic pathway of Motor Neurone Disease (MND). |
| title_short | When months matter; modelling the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the diagnostic pathway of Motor Neurone Disease (MND). |
| title_sort | when months matter modelling the impact of the covid 19 pandemic on the diagnostic pathway of motor neurone disease mnd |
| url | https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0259487&type=printable |
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