Long-term trends and projections of ovarian cancer burden in China (1990 to 2040): an age-period-cohort analysis based on GBD 2021 data
BackgroundThe growing burden of ovarian cancer is attracting widespread attention; the impact factors and the evolution trend of ovarian cancer burden need to be further studied.MethodsOvarian cancer disease burden data for Chinese women were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease study 2021. We...
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2025-08-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Oncology |
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| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fonc.2025.1652347/full |
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| author | Miaoling Huang Meimei Guan Qunxian Rao Qing Chen Jiating Wang Zhongyi Fan Zhongyi Fan Jianpeng Xiao Jianpeng Xiao Changhao Liu |
| author_facet | Miaoling Huang Meimei Guan Qunxian Rao Qing Chen Jiating Wang Zhongyi Fan Zhongyi Fan Jianpeng Xiao Jianpeng Xiao Changhao Liu |
| author_sort | Miaoling Huang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | BackgroundThe growing burden of ovarian cancer is attracting widespread attention; the impact factors and the evolution trend of ovarian cancer burden need to be further studied.MethodsOvarian cancer disease burden data for Chinese women were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease study 2021. We performed Age-Period-Cohort (APC) analysis to evaluate evolution trends across age, period, and cohort dimensions and identify contributing factors. Using the Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model, we projected incidence and mortality trends through 2040.ResultsIn 2021, China recorded approximately 41,240 new ovarian cancer cases and 25,140 related deaths. From 1990 to 2021, age-standardized rates (ASRs) for incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years fluctuated but increased steadily after 2015, with annual percentage changes of 1.6% (95%CI: 1.4%, 1.8%), 1.6% (95%CI: 1.4%, 1.9%), and 1.5% (95%CI: 1.3%, 1.6%), respectively. The APC model revealed a significant age effect with peak incidence occurring at 65–69 years; a period effect showing incidence and mortality rates resurged after 2015; and the cohort effects demonstrating bimodal incidence peaks in the birth cohorts of 1910–1914 and 1935–1939. Specifically, a 1% increase in the obesity rate was associated with a 3.06 (95%CI: 0.84, 5.28; p = 0.007) per 100,000 rise in ovarian cancer incidence. BAPC projections suggest that the ASRs of incidence and mortality of ovarian cancer in China will continue rising through 2040, possibly exceeding global trends.ConclusionsThe burden of ovarian cancer in China remains significant; the increasing obesity rate in women may be a driver. The ovarian cancer burden has resurged in China since 2015, and it is projected to continue increasing by 2040. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-f2f1d0d0c1d042e5beba830fa03ec45d |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2234-943X |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-08-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Oncology |
| spelling | doaj-art-f2f1d0d0c1d042e5beba830fa03ec45d2025-08-20T04:01:00ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Oncology2234-943X2025-08-011510.3389/fonc.2025.16523471652347Long-term trends and projections of ovarian cancer burden in China (1990 to 2040): an age-period-cohort analysis based on GBD 2021 dataMiaoling Huang0Meimei Guan1Qunxian Rao2Qing Chen3Jiating Wang4Zhongyi Fan5Zhongyi Fan6Jianpeng Xiao7Jianpeng Xiao8Changhao Liu9Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Sun Yat-sen Memorial Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, ChinaDepartment of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Sun Yat-sen Memorial Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, ChinaDepartment of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Sun Yat-sen Memorial Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, ChinaDepartment of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Sun Yat-sen Memorial Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, ChinaGuangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, ChinaGuangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, ChinaSchool of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, ChinaGuangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, ChinaSchool of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, ChinaDepartment of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Sun Yat-sen Memorial Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, ChinaBackgroundThe growing burden of ovarian cancer is attracting widespread attention; the impact factors and the evolution trend of ovarian cancer burden need to be further studied.MethodsOvarian cancer disease burden data for Chinese women were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease study 2021. We performed Age-Period-Cohort (APC) analysis to evaluate evolution trends across age, period, and cohort dimensions and identify contributing factors. Using the Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model, we projected incidence and mortality trends through 2040.ResultsIn 2021, China recorded approximately 41,240 new ovarian cancer cases and 25,140 related deaths. From 1990 to 2021, age-standardized rates (ASRs) for incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years fluctuated but increased steadily after 2015, with annual percentage changes of 1.6% (95%CI: 1.4%, 1.8%), 1.6% (95%CI: 1.4%, 1.9%), and 1.5% (95%CI: 1.3%, 1.6%), respectively. The APC model revealed a significant age effect with peak incidence occurring at 65–69 years; a period effect showing incidence and mortality rates resurged after 2015; and the cohort effects demonstrating bimodal incidence peaks in the birth cohorts of 1910–1914 and 1935–1939. Specifically, a 1% increase in the obesity rate was associated with a 3.06 (95%CI: 0.84, 5.28; p = 0.007) per 100,000 rise in ovarian cancer incidence. BAPC projections suggest that the ASRs of incidence and mortality of ovarian cancer in China will continue rising through 2040, possibly exceeding global trends.ConclusionsThe burden of ovarian cancer in China remains significant; the increasing obesity rate in women may be a driver. The ovarian cancer burden has resurged in China since 2015, and it is projected to continue increasing by 2040.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fonc.2025.1652347/fullovarian cancerage-period-cohort analysisdisease burdentrend projectionincidencedeath |
| spellingShingle | Miaoling Huang Meimei Guan Qunxian Rao Qing Chen Jiating Wang Zhongyi Fan Zhongyi Fan Jianpeng Xiao Jianpeng Xiao Changhao Liu Long-term trends and projections of ovarian cancer burden in China (1990 to 2040): an age-period-cohort analysis based on GBD 2021 data Frontiers in Oncology ovarian cancer age-period-cohort analysis disease burden trend projection incidence death |
| title | Long-term trends and projections of ovarian cancer burden in China (1990 to 2040): an age-period-cohort analysis based on GBD 2021 data |
| title_full | Long-term trends and projections of ovarian cancer burden in China (1990 to 2040): an age-period-cohort analysis based on GBD 2021 data |
| title_fullStr | Long-term trends and projections of ovarian cancer burden in China (1990 to 2040): an age-period-cohort analysis based on GBD 2021 data |
| title_full_unstemmed | Long-term trends and projections of ovarian cancer burden in China (1990 to 2040): an age-period-cohort analysis based on GBD 2021 data |
| title_short | Long-term trends and projections of ovarian cancer burden in China (1990 to 2040): an age-period-cohort analysis based on GBD 2021 data |
| title_sort | long term trends and projections of ovarian cancer burden in china 1990 to 2040 an age period cohort analysis based on gbd 2021 data |
| topic | ovarian cancer age-period-cohort analysis disease burden trend projection incidence death |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fonc.2025.1652347/full |
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