Nomograms predicting cancer-specific survival and overall survival of advanced salivary gland malignancy patients: a study based on the SEER database

Abstract Objective To establish a clinical prediction model for specific and overall survival in advanced salivary gland malignant tumors, providing a potential reference tool for personalized clinical care and adjunct treatment decision-making. Methods Retrospective data from the Surveillance, Epid...

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Main Authors: Congzhi Ma, Xiaolin Nong
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Springer 2025-05-01
Series:Discover Oncology
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Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1007/s12672-025-02072-7
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author Congzhi Ma
Xiaolin Nong
author_facet Congzhi Ma
Xiaolin Nong
author_sort Congzhi Ma
collection DOAJ
description Abstract Objective To establish a clinical prediction model for specific and overall survival in advanced salivary gland malignant tumors, providing a potential reference tool for personalized clinical care and adjunct treatment decision-making. Methods Retrospective data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) 8.4.3 version were utilized. Clinical variables collected included patient age, gender, race, diagnosis year, SERR historic stage A, histological types(The histological classification of advanced salivary gland malignant tumors in this study mainly include acinic cell carcinoma, adenoid cystic, mucoepidermoid carcinoma, salivary duct carcinoma, carcinoma ex pleomorphic adenoma, squamous cell carcinoma NOS, salivary gland carcinoma NOS and other histological types), T stage, N stage, M stage, treatment modalities (including surgery, radiotherapy, and chemotherapy), marital status, cancer-specific survival (CSS), overall survival (OS), and survival status. Patients diagnosed with TNM III/TNM IV stage salivary gland malignant tumors between 2010 and 2015 were allocated to the training set, while those diagnosed between 2004 and 2009 served as the test set. Chi-square test compared clinical variables between the training and test sets. Univariate and multivariate COX regression models identified prognostic factors, Kaplan–Meier analysis depicted survival curves, and predictive models for patient OS and CSS were constructed using R-studio environment, with calibration curves and C-index calculated. All statistical analyses were conducted using SPSS 25.0 and R-studio, with P < 0.05 considered significant. Results A total of 1477 late-stage salivary gland malignant tumor patients were included. Independent prognostic factors for OS included age, tumor histology, histologic types, T stage, M stage, surgery, and radiotherapy. CSS shared similar prognostic factors with OS. Predictive nomograms based on clinical variables showed high accuracy for 1, 2, 3, 5, and 10-year OS and CSS, with C-indexes of 0.748 and 0.783, respectively. External validation confirmed the models’ accuracy, with well-fitted calibration curves between predicted and observed survival rates. Conclusion Nomograms constructed from clinical data can effectively predict OS and CSS for advanced salivary gland malignant tumor patients, providing a potential reference tool for personalized clinical care and adjunct treatment strategies.
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spelling doaj-art-f2d873f4c2d94db38ab1eed537848c772025-08-20T03:53:58ZengSpringerDiscover Oncology2730-60112025-05-0116111210.1007/s12672-025-02072-7Nomograms predicting cancer-specific survival and overall survival of advanced salivary gland malignancy patients: a study based on the SEER databaseCongzhi Ma0Xiaolin Nong1Department of Oral & Maxillofacial Surgery, College & Hospital of Stomatology, Guangxi Medical UniversityDepartment of Oral & Maxillofacial Surgery, College & Hospital of Stomatology, Guangxi Medical UniversityAbstract Objective To establish a clinical prediction model for specific and overall survival in advanced salivary gland malignant tumors, providing a potential reference tool for personalized clinical care and adjunct treatment decision-making. Methods Retrospective data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) 8.4.3 version were utilized. Clinical variables collected included patient age, gender, race, diagnosis year, SERR historic stage A, histological types(The histological classification of advanced salivary gland malignant tumors in this study mainly include acinic cell carcinoma, adenoid cystic, mucoepidermoid carcinoma, salivary duct carcinoma, carcinoma ex pleomorphic adenoma, squamous cell carcinoma NOS, salivary gland carcinoma NOS and other histological types), T stage, N stage, M stage, treatment modalities (including surgery, radiotherapy, and chemotherapy), marital status, cancer-specific survival (CSS), overall survival (OS), and survival status. Patients diagnosed with TNM III/TNM IV stage salivary gland malignant tumors between 2010 and 2015 were allocated to the training set, while those diagnosed between 2004 and 2009 served as the test set. Chi-square test compared clinical variables between the training and test sets. Univariate and multivariate COX regression models identified prognostic factors, Kaplan–Meier analysis depicted survival curves, and predictive models for patient OS and CSS were constructed using R-studio environment, with calibration curves and C-index calculated. All statistical analyses were conducted using SPSS 25.0 and R-studio, with P < 0.05 considered significant. Results A total of 1477 late-stage salivary gland malignant tumor patients were included. Independent prognostic factors for OS included age, tumor histology, histologic types, T stage, M stage, surgery, and radiotherapy. CSS shared similar prognostic factors with OS. Predictive nomograms based on clinical variables showed high accuracy for 1, 2, 3, 5, and 10-year OS and CSS, with C-indexes of 0.748 and 0.783, respectively. External validation confirmed the models’ accuracy, with well-fitted calibration curves between predicted and observed survival rates. Conclusion Nomograms constructed from clinical data can effectively predict OS and CSS for advanced salivary gland malignant tumor patients, providing a potential reference tool for personalized clinical care and adjunct treatment strategies.https://doi.org/10.1007/s12672-025-02072-7NomogramSalivary gland malignancyCancer-specific survival (CSS)Overall survival (OS)
spellingShingle Congzhi Ma
Xiaolin Nong
Nomograms predicting cancer-specific survival and overall survival of advanced salivary gland malignancy patients: a study based on the SEER database
Discover Oncology
Nomogram
Salivary gland malignancy
Cancer-specific survival (CSS)
Overall survival (OS)
title Nomograms predicting cancer-specific survival and overall survival of advanced salivary gland malignancy patients: a study based on the SEER database
title_full Nomograms predicting cancer-specific survival and overall survival of advanced salivary gland malignancy patients: a study based on the SEER database
title_fullStr Nomograms predicting cancer-specific survival and overall survival of advanced salivary gland malignancy patients: a study based on the SEER database
title_full_unstemmed Nomograms predicting cancer-specific survival and overall survival of advanced salivary gland malignancy patients: a study based on the SEER database
title_short Nomograms predicting cancer-specific survival and overall survival of advanced salivary gland malignancy patients: a study based on the SEER database
title_sort nomograms predicting cancer specific survival and overall survival of advanced salivary gland malignancy patients a study based on the seer database
topic Nomogram
Salivary gland malignancy
Cancer-specific survival (CSS)
Overall survival (OS)
url https://doi.org/10.1007/s12672-025-02072-7
work_keys_str_mv AT congzhima nomogramspredictingcancerspecificsurvivalandoverallsurvivalofadvancedsalivaryglandmalignancypatientsastudybasedontheseerdatabase
AT xiaolinnong nomogramspredictingcancerspecificsurvivalandoverallsurvivalofadvancedsalivaryglandmalignancypatientsastudybasedontheseerdatabase