Improving Multiday Solar Wind Speed Forecasts
Abstract We analyze the residual errors for the Wang‐Sheeley‐Arge (WSA) solar wind speed forecasts as a function of the photospheric magnetic field expansion factor (fp) and the minimum separation angle (d) in the photosphere between the footpoints of open field lines and the nearest coronal hole bo...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2022-09-01
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| Series: | Space Weather |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2021SW002868 |
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| author | H. A. Elliott C. N. Arge C. J. Henney M. A. Dayeh G. Livadiotis J.‐M. Jahn C. E. DeForest |
| author_facet | H. A. Elliott C. N. Arge C. J. Henney M. A. Dayeh G. Livadiotis J.‐M. Jahn C. E. DeForest |
| author_sort | H. A. Elliott |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract We analyze the residual errors for the Wang‐Sheeley‐Arge (WSA) solar wind speed forecasts as a function of the photospheric magnetic field expansion factor (fp) and the minimum separation angle (d) in the photosphere between the footpoints of open field lines and the nearest coronal hole boundary. We find the map of residual speed errors are systematic when examined as a function of fp and d. We use these residual error maps to apply corrections to the model speeds. We test this correction approach using 3‐day lead time speed forecasts for an entire year of observations and model results. Our methods can readily be applied to develop corrections for the remaining WSA forecast lead times which range from 1 to 7 days in 1‐day increments. Since the solar wind density, temperature, and the interplanetary magnetic field strength all correlate well with the solar wind speed, the improved accuracy of solar wind speed forecasts enables the production of multiday forecasts of the solar wind density, temperature, pressure, and interplanetary field strength, and geophysical indices. These additional parameters would expand the usefulness of Air Force Data Assimilative Photospheric Flux Transport‐WSA forecasts for space weather clients. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-f2cdbcdec5bf4c3fa7a69bdeaec5dbe3 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1542-7390 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2022-09-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Space Weather |
| spelling | doaj-art-f2cdbcdec5bf4c3fa7a69bdeaec5dbe32025-01-14T16:31:13ZengWileySpace Weather1542-73902022-09-01209n/an/a10.1029/2021SW002868Improving Multiday Solar Wind Speed ForecastsH. A. Elliott0C. N. Arge1C. J. Henney2M. A. Dayeh3G. Livadiotis4J.‐M. Jahn5C. E. DeForest6Space Science Directorate Space Science and Engineering Division Southwest Research Institute San Antonio TX USAHeliophysics Science Division NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt MD USAAir Force Research Laboratory Space Vehicles Directorate Kirtland AFB NM USASpace Science Directorate Space Science and Engineering Division Southwest Research Institute San Antonio TX USASpace Science Directorate Space Science and Engineering Division Southwest Research Institute San Antonio TX USASpace Science Directorate Space Science and Engineering Division Southwest Research Institute San Antonio TX USAPlanetary Science Directorate Space Science and Engineering Division Southwest Research Institute Boulder CO USAAbstract We analyze the residual errors for the Wang‐Sheeley‐Arge (WSA) solar wind speed forecasts as a function of the photospheric magnetic field expansion factor (fp) and the minimum separation angle (d) in the photosphere between the footpoints of open field lines and the nearest coronal hole boundary. We find the map of residual speed errors are systematic when examined as a function of fp and d. We use these residual error maps to apply corrections to the model speeds. We test this correction approach using 3‐day lead time speed forecasts for an entire year of observations and model results. Our methods can readily be applied to develop corrections for the remaining WSA forecast lead times which range from 1 to 7 days in 1‐day increments. Since the solar wind density, temperature, and the interplanetary magnetic field strength all correlate well with the solar wind speed, the improved accuracy of solar wind speed forecasts enables the production of multiday forecasts of the solar wind density, temperature, pressure, and interplanetary field strength, and geophysical indices. These additional parameters would expand the usefulness of Air Force Data Assimilative Photospheric Flux Transport‐WSA forecasts for space weather clients.https://doi.org/10.1029/2021SW002868solar windforecastspace weathergeoeffectivespeed |
| spellingShingle | H. A. Elliott C. N. Arge C. J. Henney M. A. Dayeh G. Livadiotis J.‐M. Jahn C. E. DeForest Improving Multiday Solar Wind Speed Forecasts Space Weather solar wind forecast space weather geoeffective speed |
| title | Improving Multiday Solar Wind Speed Forecasts |
| title_full | Improving Multiday Solar Wind Speed Forecasts |
| title_fullStr | Improving Multiday Solar Wind Speed Forecasts |
| title_full_unstemmed | Improving Multiday Solar Wind Speed Forecasts |
| title_short | Improving Multiday Solar Wind Speed Forecasts |
| title_sort | improving multiday solar wind speed forecasts |
| topic | solar wind forecast space weather geoeffective speed |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2021SW002868 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT haelliott improvingmultidaysolarwindspeedforecasts AT cnarge improvingmultidaysolarwindspeedforecasts AT cjhenney improvingmultidaysolarwindspeedforecasts AT madayeh improvingmultidaysolarwindspeedforecasts AT glivadiotis improvingmultidaysolarwindspeedforecasts AT jmjahn improvingmultidaysolarwindspeedforecasts AT cedeforest improvingmultidaysolarwindspeedforecasts |