Northern Hemisphere Climatology and Interannual Variability of Storm Tracks in NCEP’s CFS Model
Evaluating the climatology and interannual variability of storm tracks in climate models represents an excellent way to evaluate their ability to simulate synoptic-scale phenomena. We generate storm tracks from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFS) mod...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2015-01-01
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| Series: | Advances in Meteorology |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2015/720545 |
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| author | Timothy Paul Eichler Francisco Alvarez Jon Gottschalck |
| author_facet | Timothy Paul Eichler Francisco Alvarez Jon Gottschalck |
| author_sort | Timothy Paul Eichler |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Evaluating the climatology and interannual variability of storm tracks in climate models represents an excellent way to evaluate their ability to simulate synoptic-scale phenomena. We generate storm tracks from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFS) model for the northern hemisphere (NH) and compare them to storm tracks generated from NCEP’s reanalysis I data, the European Centre for Medium Range Prediction (ECMWF) ERA40 data, and CFS reanalysis data. To assess interannual variability, we analyze the impacts of El Niño, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). We show that the CFS model is capable of simulating realistic storm tracks for frequency and intensity in the NH. The CFS storm tracks exhibit a reasonable response to El Niño and the NAO. However, it did not capture interannual variability for the IOD. Since one path by which storm tracks respond to external forcing is via Rossby waves due to anomalous heating, the CFS model may not be able to capture this effect especially since anomalous heating for the IOD is more local than El Niño. Our assessment is that the CFS model’s storm track response is sensitive to the strength of external forcing. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-f281806410ee46fc99fcef90d9961aa1 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1687-9309 1687-9317 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2015-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Advances in Meteorology |
| spelling | doaj-art-f281806410ee46fc99fcef90d9961aa12025-02-03T06:00:34ZengWileyAdvances in Meteorology1687-93091687-93172015-01-01201510.1155/2015/720545720545Northern Hemisphere Climatology and Interannual Variability of Storm Tracks in NCEP’s CFS ModelTimothy Paul Eichler0Francisco Alvarez1Jon Gottschalck2Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Saint Louis University, 3642 Lindell Boulevard, O’Neil Hall 205, St. Louis, MO 63108, USADepartment of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Saint Louis University, 3642 Lindell Boulevard, O’Neil Hall 205, St. Louis, MO 63108, USANOAA/National Weather Service, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Climate Prediction Center, 5830 University Research Court, College Park, MD 20740, USAEvaluating the climatology and interannual variability of storm tracks in climate models represents an excellent way to evaluate their ability to simulate synoptic-scale phenomena. We generate storm tracks from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFS) model for the northern hemisphere (NH) and compare them to storm tracks generated from NCEP’s reanalysis I data, the European Centre for Medium Range Prediction (ECMWF) ERA40 data, and CFS reanalysis data. To assess interannual variability, we analyze the impacts of El Niño, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). We show that the CFS model is capable of simulating realistic storm tracks for frequency and intensity in the NH. The CFS storm tracks exhibit a reasonable response to El Niño and the NAO. However, it did not capture interannual variability for the IOD. Since one path by which storm tracks respond to external forcing is via Rossby waves due to anomalous heating, the CFS model may not be able to capture this effect especially since anomalous heating for the IOD is more local than El Niño. Our assessment is that the CFS model’s storm track response is sensitive to the strength of external forcing.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2015/720545 |
| spellingShingle | Timothy Paul Eichler Francisco Alvarez Jon Gottschalck Northern Hemisphere Climatology and Interannual Variability of Storm Tracks in NCEP’s CFS Model Advances in Meteorology |
| title | Northern Hemisphere Climatology and Interannual Variability of Storm Tracks in NCEP’s CFS Model |
| title_full | Northern Hemisphere Climatology and Interannual Variability of Storm Tracks in NCEP’s CFS Model |
| title_fullStr | Northern Hemisphere Climatology and Interannual Variability of Storm Tracks in NCEP’s CFS Model |
| title_full_unstemmed | Northern Hemisphere Climatology and Interannual Variability of Storm Tracks in NCEP’s CFS Model |
| title_short | Northern Hemisphere Climatology and Interannual Variability of Storm Tracks in NCEP’s CFS Model |
| title_sort | northern hemisphere climatology and interannual variability of storm tracks in ncep s cfs model |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2015/720545 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT timothypauleichler northernhemisphereclimatologyandinterannualvariabilityofstormtracksinncepscfsmodel AT franciscoalvarez northernhemisphereclimatologyandinterannualvariabilityofstormtracksinncepscfsmodel AT jongottschalck northernhemisphereclimatologyandinterannualvariabilityofstormtracksinncepscfsmodel |