Larval source management in Ethiopia: modelling to assess its effectiveness in curbing malaria surge in dire Dawa and Batu Towns
Abstract Background Ethiopia faces several severe challenges in terms of malaria elimination, including drug resistance and diagnostic evasion in the Plasmodium falciparum parasite, insecticide resistance in the primary Anopheles malaria vector, and, most recently, the invasion of the Asian malaria...
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BMC
2024-12-01
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12936-024-05189-2 |
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| author | Galana Mamo Ayana Abdollah Jalilian Temesgen Ashine Eshetu Molla Elifaged Hailemeskel Dagmawi Hailu Yemane Hailegiorgis Yirgu Nigatu Negash Natnael Teferi Daniel Teshome Alison M. Reynolds David Weetman Anne L. Wilson Birhanu Kenate Martin J. Donnelly Luigi Sedda Endalamaw Gadisa |
| author_facet | Galana Mamo Ayana Abdollah Jalilian Temesgen Ashine Eshetu Molla Elifaged Hailemeskel Dagmawi Hailu Yemane Hailegiorgis Yirgu Nigatu Negash Natnael Teferi Daniel Teshome Alison M. Reynolds David Weetman Anne L. Wilson Birhanu Kenate Martin J. Donnelly Luigi Sedda Endalamaw Gadisa |
| author_sort | Galana Mamo Ayana |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background Ethiopia faces several severe challenges in terms of malaria elimination, including drug resistance and diagnostic evasion in the Plasmodium falciparum parasite, insecticide resistance in the primary Anopheles malaria vector, and, most recently, the invasion of the Asian malaria vector Anopheles stephensi. Novel malaria control methods are therefore needed, and in this paper, we describe the evaluation of a larval source management (LSM) strategy implemented in response to An. stephensi. The primary outcome was the malaria incidence rate compared between intervention and non-intervention sites in the presence of An. stephensi. Methods Intervention (Batu and Dire Dawa) and control (Metehara) towns were selected, and weekly malaria passive case detection data collected between 2014 and 2023 were obtained from the Oromia regional state and Dire Dawa City Administration Health Bureau. In addition, data regarding intervention were obtained from the President’s Malaria Initiative (PMI) reports. Weekly malaria passive case data were used to evaluate the change in the estimated malaria incidence rate and trends of temporal patterns of the estimated malaria incidence rate before and after interventions. An interrupted time series model with a cyclic second-order random walk structure periodic seasonal term was used to assess the impact of LSM on malaria incidence rate in the intervention and control settings. Results An upsurge in malaria cases occurred after 2020 at both the intervention and control sites. The temporal patterns of malaria incidence rate showed an increasing trend after the intervention. The ITS model depicted that the LSM has no impact in reducing the malaria incidence rate at both intervention site Dire Dawa [immediate impact = 1.462 (0.891, 2.035)], [Lasting impact = 0.003 (− 0.012, 0.018)], and Batu [Immediate impact 0.007 (− 0.235, 0.249), [Lasting impact = 0.008 (− 0.003, 0.013)]. Conclusions An overall increasing trend in the malaria incidence rate was observed irrespective of the implementation of LSM in the urban settings of Ethiopia, where An. stephensi has been found. Further investigations and validations of the incorporation of LSM into control activities are warranted. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-f00dfdb0d20d45cabd5aea95fea868dd |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 1475-2875 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-12-01 |
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| series | Malaria Journal |
| spelling | doaj-art-f00dfdb0d20d45cabd5aea95fea868dd2025-08-20T02:31:04ZengBMCMalaria Journal1475-28752024-12-012311910.1186/s12936-024-05189-2Larval source management in Ethiopia: modelling to assess its effectiveness in curbing malaria surge in dire Dawa and Batu TownsGalana Mamo Ayana0Abdollah Jalilian1Temesgen Ashine2Eshetu Molla3Elifaged Hailemeskel4Dagmawi Hailu Yemane5Hailegiorgis Yirgu6Nigatu Negash7Natnael Teferi8Daniel Teshome9Alison M. Reynolds10David Weetman11Anne L. Wilson12Birhanu Kenate13Martin J. Donnelly14Luigi Sedda15Endalamaw Gadisa16Malaria and Neglected Tropical Disease, Armauer Hansen Research InstituteLancaster Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Lancaster Medical School, Lancaster UniversityMalaria and Neglected Tropical Disease, Armauer Hansen Research InstituteMalaria and Neglected Tropical Disease, Armauer Hansen Research InstituteMalaria and Neglected Tropical Disease, Armauer Hansen Research InstituteMalaria and Neglected Tropical Disease, Armauer Hansen Research InstituteMalaria and Neglected Tropical Disease, Armauer Hansen Research InstituteMalaria and Neglected Tropical Disease, Armauer Hansen Research InstitutePublic Health Emergency Management, Research, and Blood Bank Service Directorate, Oromia Region Health BureauPublic Health Emergency Management, Research, Dire Dawa Region Health BureauDepartment of Vector Biology, Liverpool School of Tropical MedicineDepartment of Vector Biology, Liverpool School of Tropical MedicineDepartment of Vector Biology, Liverpool School of Tropical MedicinePublic Health Emergency Management, Research, and Blood Bank Service Directorate, Oromia Region Health BureauDepartment of Vector Biology, Liverpool School of Tropical MedicineLancaster Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Lancaster Medical School, Lancaster UniversityMalaria and Neglected Tropical Disease, Armauer Hansen Research InstituteAbstract Background Ethiopia faces several severe challenges in terms of malaria elimination, including drug resistance and diagnostic evasion in the Plasmodium falciparum parasite, insecticide resistance in the primary Anopheles malaria vector, and, most recently, the invasion of the Asian malaria vector Anopheles stephensi. Novel malaria control methods are therefore needed, and in this paper, we describe the evaluation of a larval source management (LSM) strategy implemented in response to An. stephensi. The primary outcome was the malaria incidence rate compared between intervention and non-intervention sites in the presence of An. stephensi. Methods Intervention (Batu and Dire Dawa) and control (Metehara) towns were selected, and weekly malaria passive case detection data collected between 2014 and 2023 were obtained from the Oromia regional state and Dire Dawa City Administration Health Bureau. In addition, data regarding intervention were obtained from the President’s Malaria Initiative (PMI) reports. Weekly malaria passive case data were used to evaluate the change in the estimated malaria incidence rate and trends of temporal patterns of the estimated malaria incidence rate before and after interventions. An interrupted time series model with a cyclic second-order random walk structure periodic seasonal term was used to assess the impact of LSM on malaria incidence rate in the intervention and control settings. Results An upsurge in malaria cases occurred after 2020 at both the intervention and control sites. The temporal patterns of malaria incidence rate showed an increasing trend after the intervention. The ITS model depicted that the LSM has no impact in reducing the malaria incidence rate at both intervention site Dire Dawa [immediate impact = 1.462 (0.891, 2.035)], [Lasting impact = 0.003 (− 0.012, 0.018)], and Batu [Immediate impact 0.007 (− 0.235, 0.249), [Lasting impact = 0.008 (− 0.003, 0.013)]. Conclusions An overall increasing trend in the malaria incidence rate was observed irrespective of the implementation of LSM in the urban settings of Ethiopia, where An. stephensi has been found. Further investigations and validations of the incorporation of LSM into control activities are warranted.https://doi.org/10.1186/s12936-024-05189-2MalariaLarvalBtiSource reductionInterruptionTime series |
| spellingShingle | Galana Mamo Ayana Abdollah Jalilian Temesgen Ashine Eshetu Molla Elifaged Hailemeskel Dagmawi Hailu Yemane Hailegiorgis Yirgu Nigatu Negash Natnael Teferi Daniel Teshome Alison M. Reynolds David Weetman Anne L. Wilson Birhanu Kenate Martin J. Donnelly Luigi Sedda Endalamaw Gadisa Larval source management in Ethiopia: modelling to assess its effectiveness in curbing malaria surge in dire Dawa and Batu Towns Malaria Journal Malaria Larval Bti Source reduction Interruption Time series |
| title | Larval source management in Ethiopia: modelling to assess its effectiveness in curbing malaria surge in dire Dawa and Batu Towns |
| title_full | Larval source management in Ethiopia: modelling to assess its effectiveness in curbing malaria surge in dire Dawa and Batu Towns |
| title_fullStr | Larval source management in Ethiopia: modelling to assess its effectiveness in curbing malaria surge in dire Dawa and Batu Towns |
| title_full_unstemmed | Larval source management in Ethiopia: modelling to assess its effectiveness in curbing malaria surge in dire Dawa and Batu Towns |
| title_short | Larval source management in Ethiopia: modelling to assess its effectiveness in curbing malaria surge in dire Dawa and Batu Towns |
| title_sort | larval source management in ethiopia modelling to assess its effectiveness in curbing malaria surge in dire dawa and batu towns |
| topic | Malaria Larval Bti Source reduction Interruption Time series |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12936-024-05189-2 |
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