Прогнозирование уровня смертности от инфекции Mpox в Африке с использованием гибридного подхода
Objective: The main objective of our work is to forecast the daily Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) index for Mpox, a disease that has posed significant challenges, particularly in African countries. Mpox has become a major public health concern due to its rapid spread and the strain it places on healt...
Saved in:
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | Russian |
| Published: |
Journal Infectology
2025-06-01
|
| Series: | Журнал инфектологии |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://journal.niidi.ru/jofin/article/view/1787 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1849772478733221888 |
|---|---|
| author | Djillali Seba |
| author_facet | Djillali Seba |
| author_sort | Djillali Seba |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Objective: The main objective of our work is to forecast the daily Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) index for Mpox, a disease that has posed significant challenges, particularly in African countries. Mpox has become a major public health concern due to its rapid spread and the strain it places on healthcare systemsMethods: In this paper, we use a hybrid approach to enhance the performance of traditional models. First, we apply the ARIMA model, which is more suitable for the task, and then we implement a noise reduction technique to further improve the results.Results and discussions: We utilize four performance measures RMSE, MSE, MAE, and MAPE to evaluate the efficiency of our approach. By combining a denoising technique with ARIMA and integrating Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) with the ARIMA model, the SSA-ARIMA model demonstrates the best performance.Conclusion: Forecasting the Infection Fatality Rate with an appropriate model provides a deeper understanding of this phenomenon, enabling authorities to effectively control and manage the risks associated with Mpox. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-eff0d98e966c455ab4f2ad6fe52a460f |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2072-6732 |
| language | Russian |
| publishDate | 2025-06-01 |
| publisher | Journal Infectology |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Журнал инфектологии |
| spelling | doaj-art-eff0d98e966c455ab4f2ad6fe52a460f2025-08-20T03:02:19ZrusJournal InfectologyЖурнал инфектологии2072-67322025-06-01172969910.22625/2072-6732-2025-17-2-96-991223Прогнозирование уровня смертности от инфекции Mpox в Африке с использованием гибридного подходаDjillali Seba0University of BejaiaObjective: The main objective of our work is to forecast the daily Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) index for Mpox, a disease that has posed significant challenges, particularly in African countries. Mpox has become a major public health concern due to its rapid spread and the strain it places on healthcare systemsMethods: In this paper, we use a hybrid approach to enhance the performance of traditional models. First, we apply the ARIMA model, which is more suitable for the task, and then we implement a noise reduction technique to further improve the results.Results and discussions: We utilize four performance measures RMSE, MSE, MAE, and MAPE to evaluate the efficiency of our approach. By combining a denoising technique with ARIMA and integrating Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) with the ARIMA model, the SSA-ARIMA model demonstrates the best performance.Conclusion: Forecasting the Infection Fatality Rate with an appropriate model provides a deeper understanding of this phenomenon, enabling authorities to effectively control and manage the risks associated with Mpox.https://journal.niidi.ru/jofin/article/view/1787ifrforecastingarimanoise reductionmpox |
| spellingShingle | Djillali Seba Прогнозирование уровня смертности от инфекции Mpox в Африке с использованием гибридного подхода Журнал инфектологии ifr forecasting arima noise reduction mpox |
| title | Прогнозирование уровня смертности от инфекции Mpox в Африке с использованием гибридного подхода |
| title_full | Прогнозирование уровня смертности от инфекции Mpox в Африке с использованием гибридного подхода |
| title_fullStr | Прогнозирование уровня смертности от инфекции Mpox в Африке с использованием гибридного подхода |
| title_full_unstemmed | Прогнозирование уровня смертности от инфекции Mpox в Африке с использованием гибридного подхода |
| title_short | Прогнозирование уровня смертности от инфекции Mpox в Африке с использованием гибридного подхода |
| title_sort | прогнозирование уровня смертности от инфекции mpox в африке с использованием гибридного подхода |
| topic | ifr forecasting arima noise reduction mpox |
| url | https://journal.niidi.ru/jofin/article/view/1787 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT djillaliseba prognozirovanieurovnâsmertnostiotinfekciimpoxvafrikesispolʹzovaniemgibridnogopodhoda |