Traffic Bottlenecks: Predicting Atmospheric Blocking With a Diminishing Flow Capacity
Abstract Atmospheric blocking is characterized by persistent anticyclones that “block” the midlatitude jet stream, causing temperature and precipitation extremes. The traffic jam theory posits that blocking events occur when the Local Wave Activity flux, a measure of storm activity, exceeds the carr...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2024-10-01
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| Series: | Geophysical Research Letters |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL111035 |
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| _version_ | 1850077826058813440 |
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| author | Xingjian Yan Lei Wang Edwin P. Gerber Valentina Castañeda Ka Ying Ho |
| author_facet | Xingjian Yan Lei Wang Edwin P. Gerber Valentina Castañeda Ka Ying Ho |
| author_sort | Xingjian Yan |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Atmospheric blocking is characterized by persistent anticyclones that “block” the midlatitude jet stream, causing temperature and precipitation extremes. The traffic jam theory posits that blocking events occur when the Local Wave Activity flux, a measure of storm activity, exceeds the carrying capacity of the jet stream, leading to a pile up. The theory's efficacy for prediction is tested with atmospheric reanalysis by defining “exceedance events”, the time and location where wave activity first exceeds flow capacity. The theory captures the Northern Hemisphere winter blocking climatology, with strong spatial correlation between exceedance and blocking events. Both events are favored not only by low carrying capacity (narrow roads), but also a downstream reduction in capacity (lane closures causing a bottleneck). The theory fails, however, to accurately predict blocking events in time. Exceedance events are not a useful predictor of an imminent block, suggesting that confounding factors explain their shared climatological structure. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-efd13df922dd42e1945ff0a4211fc302 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 0094-8276 1944-8007 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-10-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geophysical Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-efd13df922dd42e1945ff0a4211fc3022025-08-20T02:45:43ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072024-10-015119n/an/a10.1029/2024GL111035Traffic Bottlenecks: Predicting Atmospheric Blocking With a Diminishing Flow CapacityXingjian Yan0Lei Wang1Edwin P. Gerber2Valentina Castañeda3Ka Ying Ho4Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences Purdue University West Lafayette IN USADepartment of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences Purdue University West Lafayette IN USACourant Institute of Mathematical Sciences New York University New York NY USADepartment of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences Purdue University West Lafayette IN USADepartment of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences Purdue University West Lafayette IN USAAbstract Atmospheric blocking is characterized by persistent anticyclones that “block” the midlatitude jet stream, causing temperature and precipitation extremes. The traffic jam theory posits that blocking events occur when the Local Wave Activity flux, a measure of storm activity, exceeds the carrying capacity of the jet stream, leading to a pile up. The theory's efficacy for prediction is tested with atmospheric reanalysis by defining “exceedance events”, the time and location where wave activity first exceeds flow capacity. The theory captures the Northern Hemisphere winter blocking climatology, with strong spatial correlation between exceedance and blocking events. Both events are favored not only by low carrying capacity (narrow roads), but also a downstream reduction in capacity (lane closures causing a bottleneck). The theory fails, however, to accurately predict blocking events in time. Exceedance events are not a useful predictor of an imminent block, suggesting that confounding factors explain their shared climatological structure.https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL111035 |
| spellingShingle | Xingjian Yan Lei Wang Edwin P. Gerber Valentina Castañeda Ka Ying Ho Traffic Bottlenecks: Predicting Atmospheric Blocking With a Diminishing Flow Capacity Geophysical Research Letters |
| title | Traffic Bottlenecks: Predicting Atmospheric Blocking With a Diminishing Flow Capacity |
| title_full | Traffic Bottlenecks: Predicting Atmospheric Blocking With a Diminishing Flow Capacity |
| title_fullStr | Traffic Bottlenecks: Predicting Atmospheric Blocking With a Diminishing Flow Capacity |
| title_full_unstemmed | Traffic Bottlenecks: Predicting Atmospheric Blocking With a Diminishing Flow Capacity |
| title_short | Traffic Bottlenecks: Predicting Atmospheric Blocking With a Diminishing Flow Capacity |
| title_sort | traffic bottlenecks predicting atmospheric blocking with a diminishing flow capacity |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL111035 |
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