Estimating the contribution of Arctic sea-ice loss to central Asia temperature anomalies: the case of winter 2020/2021
Arctic sea-ice cover has declined drastically in recent decades, notably in the Barents-Kara Seas (BKS). Previous research has linked low autumn BKS-ice cover to subsequent cold Eurasian winters. This lagged relationship was observed in 2020/2021. Using a causal network framework grounded in known p...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
IOP Publishing
2025-01-01
|
| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/adae22 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1823859144652750848 |
|---|---|
| author | Lara R Cosford Rohit Ghosh Marlene Kretschmer Clare Oatley Theodore G Shepherd |
| author_facet | Lara R Cosford Rohit Ghosh Marlene Kretschmer Clare Oatley Theodore G Shepherd |
| author_sort | Lara R Cosford |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Arctic sea-ice cover has declined drastically in recent decades, notably in the Barents-Kara Seas (BKS). Previous research has linked low autumn BKS-ice cover to subsequent cold Eurasian winters. This lagged relationship was observed in 2020/2021. Using a causal network framework grounded in known physical mechanisms, we assess how strongly one factor directly influences another (i.e. the causal relationship) and apply this analysis to the anomalies from 2020/2021. We show that although year-to-year BKS-ice variations have only a minor impact on Central Asia temperatures, that causal effect becomes important for attribution and prediction when we consider the large long-term trend in BKS-ice cover. In particular, we find that Central Asia’s 2021 negative winter surface air temperature anomaly (relative to 1980–2020) can be fully explained by the BKS-ice anomaly. We further estimate that BKS-ice loss has more than halved the winter warming over Central Asia over the past 40 years. Hence rather than debating a cooling trend in Central Asia during winter, we propose shifting the focus to the influence of Arctic Amplification on anticipated warming trends. This study illustrates the efficacy of causal network analysis, which has implications for seasonal prediction and attribution of midlatitude winter anomalies. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-efd119f64445410eabd3db8c1ba0ff34 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-efd119f64445410eabd3db8c1ba0ff342025-02-11T08:18:48ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262025-01-0120303400710.1088/1748-9326/adae22Estimating the contribution of Arctic sea-ice loss to central Asia temperature anomalies: the case of winter 2020/2021Lara R Cosford0https://orcid.org/0009-0009-0504-8939Rohit Ghosh1https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9888-7292Marlene Kretschmer2https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2756-9526Clare Oatley3Theodore G Shepherd4https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968Department of Meteorology, University of Reading , Reading, United KingdomDepartment of Meteorology, University of Reading , Reading, United Kingdom; Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research , Bremerhaven, GermanyDepartment of Meteorology, University of Reading , Reading, United Kingdom; Institute for Meteorology, Leipzig University , Leipzig, GermanyRWE Supply and Trading Gmbh , London, United KingdomDepartment of Meteorology, University of Reading , Reading, United KingdomArctic sea-ice cover has declined drastically in recent decades, notably in the Barents-Kara Seas (BKS). Previous research has linked low autumn BKS-ice cover to subsequent cold Eurasian winters. This lagged relationship was observed in 2020/2021. Using a causal network framework grounded in known physical mechanisms, we assess how strongly one factor directly influences another (i.e. the causal relationship) and apply this analysis to the anomalies from 2020/2021. We show that although year-to-year BKS-ice variations have only a minor impact on Central Asia temperatures, that causal effect becomes important for attribution and prediction when we consider the large long-term trend in BKS-ice cover. In particular, we find that Central Asia’s 2021 negative winter surface air temperature anomaly (relative to 1980–2020) can be fully explained by the BKS-ice anomaly. We further estimate that BKS-ice loss has more than halved the winter warming over Central Asia over the past 40 years. Hence rather than debating a cooling trend in Central Asia during winter, we propose shifting the focus to the influence of Arctic Amplification on anticipated warming trends. This study illustrates the efficacy of causal network analysis, which has implications for seasonal prediction and attribution of midlatitude winter anomalies.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/adae22stratosphereArctic sea icecentral Asia temperature |
| spellingShingle | Lara R Cosford Rohit Ghosh Marlene Kretschmer Clare Oatley Theodore G Shepherd Estimating the contribution of Arctic sea-ice loss to central Asia temperature anomalies: the case of winter 2020/2021 Environmental Research Letters stratosphere Arctic sea ice central Asia temperature |
| title | Estimating the contribution of Arctic sea-ice loss to central Asia temperature anomalies: the case of winter 2020/2021 |
| title_full | Estimating the contribution of Arctic sea-ice loss to central Asia temperature anomalies: the case of winter 2020/2021 |
| title_fullStr | Estimating the contribution of Arctic sea-ice loss to central Asia temperature anomalies: the case of winter 2020/2021 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Estimating the contribution of Arctic sea-ice loss to central Asia temperature anomalies: the case of winter 2020/2021 |
| title_short | Estimating the contribution of Arctic sea-ice loss to central Asia temperature anomalies: the case of winter 2020/2021 |
| title_sort | estimating the contribution of arctic sea ice loss to central asia temperature anomalies the case of winter 2020 2021 |
| topic | stratosphere Arctic sea ice central Asia temperature |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/adae22 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT lararcosford estimatingthecontributionofarcticseaicelosstocentralasiatemperatureanomaliesthecaseofwinter20202021 AT rohitghosh estimatingthecontributionofarcticseaicelosstocentralasiatemperatureanomaliesthecaseofwinter20202021 AT marlenekretschmer estimatingthecontributionofarcticseaicelosstocentralasiatemperatureanomaliesthecaseofwinter20202021 AT clareoatley estimatingthecontributionofarcticseaicelosstocentralasiatemperatureanomaliesthecaseofwinter20202021 AT theodoregshepherd estimatingthecontributionofarcticseaicelosstocentralasiatemperatureanomaliesthecaseofwinter20202021 |