Direct Fuzzy Evaluation of Financial Risk “Chains” of an Organisation
The object of the research is the diagnosis and evaluation of financial risks in order to create an effective risk management policy. The subject of the research is the methodology of direct fuzzy evaluation of financial risk “chains” of an organisation. The relevance of the problem is due, on the o...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | Russian |
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Government of the Russian Federation, Financial University
2022-09-01
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| Series: | Финансы: теория и практика |
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| Online Access: | https://financetp.fa.ru/jour/article/view/1732 |
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| author | L. V. Fomchenkova P. S. Kharlamov K. S. Melikhov |
| author_facet | L. V. Fomchenkova P. S. Kharlamov K. S. Melikhov |
| author_sort | L. V. Fomchenkova |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The object of the research is the diagnosis and evaluation of financial risks in order to create an effective risk management policy. The subject of the research is the methodology of direct fuzzy evaluation of financial risk “chains” of an organisation. The relevance of the problem is due, on the one hand, to the dynamic and chaotic macro-environment and the business environment of organisations, on the other hand, to the drawback of the analytical and expert methods used to assess financial risks. The former, moreover, imply statistical data processing and operate with quantitative measures. For the latter, the difficulty is the impossibility of their application in a short time interval. From the perspective of operational risk management, financial risks deserve special attention since the effective operation of the entire organisation depends on them. The purpose of the research is to form a methodology for direct fuzzy evaluation of financial risk “chains” of an organisation. The authors apply the methods of mathematical forecasting, fuzzy modelling, calculation of financial and economic indicators, and expert risk assessment. The proposed methodology consists of 12 stages, beginning with the analysis of business processes and the identification of financial risks of the organisation. The main stage is the construction of a fuzzy evaluation model and the calculation of indicators: the probability of occurrence and realization of risks and risky situations of the financial risk “chains”, and the degree of confidence of the calculations conducted. The final stage of the methodology is an analysis of the results obtained to adjust the selected development strategy of the organisation, and the choice of methods for managing identified financial risks bearing the most significant financial and economic losses. The authors conclude the developed methodology allows to accurately assess the threat of a certain risk “chain” and losses from the implementation of specific risk situations for any organisation in the conditions of dynamic changes in internal and external elements of the business environment. The advantage of the methodology should be considered in the comparability of the accuracy of the evaluation and the low cost of modelling. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-efce3f10ad3b43208e24bcdab1def935 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2587-5671 2587-7089 |
| language | Russian |
| publishDate | 2022-09-01 |
| publisher | Government of the Russian Federation, Financial University |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Финансы: теория и практика |
| spelling | doaj-art-efce3f10ad3b43208e24bcdab1def9352025-08-20T03:21:22ZrusGovernment of the Russian Federation, Financial UniversityФинансы: теория и практика2587-56712587-70892022-09-0126413915610.26794/2587-5671-2022-26-4-139-156955Direct Fuzzy Evaluation of Financial Risk “Chains” of an OrganisationL. V. Fomchenkova0P. S. Kharlamov1K. S. Melikhov2Branch of the National Research University Moscow Power Engineering Institute in SmolenskBranch of the National Research University Moscow Power Engineering Institute in SmolenskFinancial UniversityThe object of the research is the diagnosis and evaluation of financial risks in order to create an effective risk management policy. The subject of the research is the methodology of direct fuzzy evaluation of financial risk “chains” of an organisation. The relevance of the problem is due, on the one hand, to the dynamic and chaotic macro-environment and the business environment of organisations, on the other hand, to the drawback of the analytical and expert methods used to assess financial risks. The former, moreover, imply statistical data processing and operate with quantitative measures. For the latter, the difficulty is the impossibility of their application in a short time interval. From the perspective of operational risk management, financial risks deserve special attention since the effective operation of the entire organisation depends on them. The purpose of the research is to form a methodology for direct fuzzy evaluation of financial risk “chains” of an organisation. The authors apply the methods of mathematical forecasting, fuzzy modelling, calculation of financial and economic indicators, and expert risk assessment. The proposed methodology consists of 12 stages, beginning with the analysis of business processes and the identification of financial risks of the organisation. The main stage is the construction of a fuzzy evaluation model and the calculation of indicators: the probability of occurrence and realization of risks and risky situations of the financial risk “chains”, and the degree of confidence of the calculations conducted. The final stage of the methodology is an analysis of the results obtained to adjust the selected development strategy of the organisation, and the choice of methods for managing identified financial risks bearing the most significant financial and economic losses. The authors conclude the developed methodology allows to accurately assess the threat of a certain risk “chain” and losses from the implementation of specific risk situations for any organisation in the conditions of dynamic changes in internal and external elements of the business environment. The advantage of the methodology should be considered in the comparability of the accuracy of the evaluation and the low cost of modelling.https://financetp.fa.ru/jour/article/view/1732финансовые рискириск-менеджмент«цепочка» рисковнечеткая оценочная модельнечеткое прямое оцениваниединамическая средафинансово-экономические потерибизнес-процессы организации |
| spellingShingle | L. V. Fomchenkova P. S. Kharlamov K. S. Melikhov Direct Fuzzy Evaluation of Financial Risk “Chains” of an Organisation Финансы: теория и практика финансовые риски риск-менеджмент «цепочка» рисков нечеткая оценочная модель нечеткое прямое оценивание динамическая среда финансово-экономические потери бизнес-процессы организации |
| title | Direct Fuzzy Evaluation of Financial Risk “Chains” of an Organisation |
| title_full | Direct Fuzzy Evaluation of Financial Risk “Chains” of an Organisation |
| title_fullStr | Direct Fuzzy Evaluation of Financial Risk “Chains” of an Organisation |
| title_full_unstemmed | Direct Fuzzy Evaluation of Financial Risk “Chains” of an Organisation |
| title_short | Direct Fuzzy Evaluation of Financial Risk “Chains” of an Organisation |
| title_sort | direct fuzzy evaluation of financial risk chains of an organisation |
| topic | финансовые риски риск-менеджмент «цепочка» рисков нечеткая оценочная модель нечеткое прямое оценивание динамическая среда финансово-экономические потери бизнес-процессы организации |
| url | https://financetp.fa.ru/jour/article/view/1732 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT lvfomchenkova directfuzzyevaluationoffinancialriskchainsofanorganisation AT pskharlamov directfuzzyevaluationoffinancialriskchainsofanorganisation AT ksmelikhov directfuzzyevaluationoffinancialriskchainsofanorganisation |