Global warming significantly increases the risk of Pierce’s disease epidemics in European vineyards
Abstract Pierce’s disease (PD) is a vector-borne disease caused by the bacteria Xylella fastidiosa, which affects grapevines in the Americas. Currently, vineyards in continental Europe, the world’s largest producer of quality wine, have not yet been affected by PD. However, climate change may alter...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2024-04-01
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| Series: | Scientific Reports |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-59947-y |
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| author | Àlex Giménez-Romero Maialen Iturbide Eduardo Moralejo José M. Gutiérrez Manuel A. Matías |
| author_facet | Àlex Giménez-Romero Maialen Iturbide Eduardo Moralejo José M. Gutiérrez Manuel A. Matías |
| author_sort | Àlex Giménez-Romero |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Pierce’s disease (PD) is a vector-borne disease caused by the bacteria Xylella fastidiosa, which affects grapevines in the Americas. Currently, vineyards in continental Europe, the world’s largest producer of quality wine, have not yet been affected by PD. However, climate change may alter this situation. Here we incorporate the latest regional climate change projections into a climate-driven epidemiological model to assess the risk of PD epidemics in Europe for different levels of global warming. We found a significant increase in risk above $$+\,2\,^{\circ }\hbox {C}$$ + 2 ∘ C in the main wine-producing regions of France, Italy and Portugal, in addition to a critical tipping point above $$+\,3\,^{\circ }\hbox {C}$$ + 3 ∘ C for the possible spread of PD beyond the Mediterranean. The model identifies decreasing risk trends in Spain, as well as contrasting patterns across the continent with different velocities of risk change and epidemic growth rates. Although there is some uncertainty in model projections over time, spatial patterns of risk are consistent across different climate models. Our study provides a comprehensive analysis of the future of PD at multiple spatial scales (country, Protected Designation of Origin and vineyard), revealing where, why and when PD could become a new threat to the European wine industry. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-efcb89ee3cae45e099f120ab48f23be4 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-04-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj-art-efcb89ee3cae45e099f120ab48f23be42025-08-20T02:22:28ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222024-04-0114111210.1038/s41598-024-59947-yGlobal warming significantly increases the risk of Pierce’s disease epidemics in European vineyardsÀlex Giménez-Romero0Maialen Iturbide1Eduardo Moralejo2José M. Gutiérrez3Manuel A. Matías4Instituto de Física Interdisciplinar y Sistemas Complejos (IFISC, CSIC-UIB)Instituto de Física de Cantabria (IFCA, CSIC-University of Cantabria)TragsaInstituto de Física de Cantabria (IFCA, CSIC-University of Cantabria)Instituto de Física Interdisciplinar y Sistemas Complejos (IFISC, CSIC-UIB)Abstract Pierce’s disease (PD) is a vector-borne disease caused by the bacteria Xylella fastidiosa, which affects grapevines in the Americas. Currently, vineyards in continental Europe, the world’s largest producer of quality wine, have not yet been affected by PD. However, climate change may alter this situation. Here we incorporate the latest regional climate change projections into a climate-driven epidemiological model to assess the risk of PD epidemics in Europe for different levels of global warming. We found a significant increase in risk above $$+\,2\,^{\circ }\hbox {C}$$ + 2 ∘ C in the main wine-producing regions of France, Italy and Portugal, in addition to a critical tipping point above $$+\,3\,^{\circ }\hbox {C}$$ + 3 ∘ C for the possible spread of PD beyond the Mediterranean. The model identifies decreasing risk trends in Spain, as well as contrasting patterns across the continent with different velocities of risk change and epidemic growth rates. Although there is some uncertainty in model projections over time, spatial patterns of risk are consistent across different climate models. Our study provides a comprehensive analysis of the future of PD at multiple spatial scales (country, Protected Designation of Origin and vineyard), revealing where, why and when PD could become a new threat to the European wine industry.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-59947-y |
| spellingShingle | Àlex Giménez-Romero Maialen Iturbide Eduardo Moralejo José M. Gutiérrez Manuel A. Matías Global warming significantly increases the risk of Pierce’s disease epidemics in European vineyards Scientific Reports |
| title | Global warming significantly increases the risk of Pierce’s disease epidemics in European vineyards |
| title_full | Global warming significantly increases the risk of Pierce’s disease epidemics in European vineyards |
| title_fullStr | Global warming significantly increases the risk of Pierce’s disease epidemics in European vineyards |
| title_full_unstemmed | Global warming significantly increases the risk of Pierce’s disease epidemics in European vineyards |
| title_short | Global warming significantly increases the risk of Pierce’s disease epidemics in European vineyards |
| title_sort | global warming significantly increases the risk of pierce s disease epidemics in european vineyards |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-59947-y |
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