Incidence and risk factors for modic changes in the lumbar spine: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BackgroundModic changes refer to bone marrow alterations beneath vertebral endplates and are potentially linked to infection, trauma, disc degeneration, scoliosis, and other pathological conditions. Systematic evaluations of their incidence and associated risk factors in the lumbar spine are lacking...

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Main Authors: Zhenyu Cao, Mingtao Zhang, Jingwen Jia, Guangzhi Zhang, Lei Li, Zhili Yang, Feng Zheng, Xuewen Kang
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Frontiers Media S.A. 2025-07-01
Series:Frontiers in Endocrinology
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Online Access:https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fendo.2025.1585552/full
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author Zhenyu Cao
Zhenyu Cao
Zhenyu Cao
Mingtao Zhang
Mingtao Zhang
Jingwen Jia
Jingwen Jia
Guangzhi Zhang
Guangzhi Zhang
Lei Li
Lei Li
Zhili Yang
Zhili Yang
Feng Zheng
Xuewen Kang
Xuewen Kang
author_facet Zhenyu Cao
Zhenyu Cao
Zhenyu Cao
Mingtao Zhang
Mingtao Zhang
Jingwen Jia
Jingwen Jia
Guangzhi Zhang
Guangzhi Zhang
Lei Li
Lei Li
Zhili Yang
Zhili Yang
Feng Zheng
Xuewen Kang
Xuewen Kang
author_sort Zhenyu Cao
collection DOAJ
description BackgroundModic changes refer to bone marrow alterations beneath vertebral endplates and are potentially linked to infection, trauma, disc degeneration, scoliosis, and other pathological conditions. Systematic evaluations of their incidence and associated risk factors in the lumbar spine are lacking. This study aimed to analyze and evaluate the incidence and risk factors of Modic changes in lumbar spine disorders.MethodsA comprehensive systematic review was conducted using Web of Science, PubMed, Cochrane Library, and Embase databases. Eligible studies reported the incidence and associated risk factors of Modic changes in the lumbar spine. Data were extracted and systematically analyzed from the selected studies, and meta-analyses were conducted employing random or fixed effects models.ResultsTwenty-five studies were included in the meta-analysis. The overall incidence of Modic changes was 35%. Six risk factors were identified and quantitatively assessed. Strong evidence supported the association of endplate changes (OR=3.56; 95% CI=2.00 to 6.32; p<0.0001); moderate evidence supported the association of age (OR=4.01; 95% CI=1.37 to 6.65; p=0.003), disc degeneration (OR=8.54; 95% CI=1.98 to 36.73; p=0.004), and lumbar lordosis angle (OR=-4.14; 95% CI=-6.79 to -1.49; p=0.002); minor evidence supported the association of spondylolisthesis (OR=2.00; 95% CI=1.12 to 3.58; p=0.02) and physical labor (OR=1.81; 95% CI=1.08 to 3.04; p=0.03) with the occurrence of Modic changes in the lumbar spine. No significant associations were found to support body mass index, sex, disc herniation, smoking, distributional segmentation, or sacral slope angle as risk factors for Modic changes in the lumbar spine.ConclusionModic changes occur in 35% of lumbar spine cases, with advanced age, disc degeneration, endplate changes, spondylolisthesis, reduced anterior lumbar lordosis angles, and participation in physical labor identified as associated risk factors.
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spelling doaj-art-efbf5ad02add4163b28cdbeab6e7fa522025-08-20T02:46:02ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Endocrinology1664-23922025-07-011610.3389/fendo.2025.15855521585552Incidence and risk factors for modic changes in the lumbar spine: a systematic review and meta-analysisZhenyu Cao0Zhenyu Cao1Zhenyu Cao2Mingtao Zhang3Mingtao Zhang4Jingwen Jia5Jingwen Jia6Guangzhi Zhang7Guangzhi Zhang8Lei Li9Lei Li10Zhili Yang11Zhili Yang12Feng Zheng13Xuewen Kang14Xuewen Kang15Department of Orthopaedics, Lanzhou University Second Hospital, Lanzhou, Gansu, ChinaOrthopaedics Key Laboratory of Gansu Province, Lanzhou, Gansu, ChinaDepartment of Orthopaedics, Qinghai Provincial People’s Hospital, Xining, Qinghai, ChinaDepartment of Orthopaedics, Lanzhou University Second Hospital, Lanzhou, Gansu, ChinaOrthopaedics Key Laboratory of Gansu Province, Lanzhou, Gansu, ChinaDepartment of Orthopaedics, Lanzhou University Second Hospital, Lanzhou, Gansu, ChinaOrthopaedics Key Laboratory of Gansu Province, Lanzhou, Gansu, ChinaDepartment of Orthopaedics, Lanzhou University Second Hospital, Lanzhou, Gansu, ChinaOrthopaedics Key Laboratory of Gansu Province, Lanzhou, Gansu, ChinaDepartment of Orthopaedics, Lanzhou University Second Hospital, Lanzhou, Gansu, ChinaOrthopaedics Key Laboratory of Gansu Province, Lanzhou, Gansu, ChinaDepartment of Orthopaedics, Lanzhou University Second Hospital, Lanzhou, Gansu, ChinaOrthopaedics Key Laboratory of Gansu Province, Lanzhou, Gansu, ChinaDepartment of Orthopaedics, Qinghai Provincial People’s Hospital, Xining, Qinghai, ChinaDepartment of Orthopaedics, Lanzhou University Second Hospital, Lanzhou, Gansu, ChinaOrthopaedics Key Laboratory of Gansu Province, Lanzhou, Gansu, ChinaBackgroundModic changes refer to bone marrow alterations beneath vertebral endplates and are potentially linked to infection, trauma, disc degeneration, scoliosis, and other pathological conditions. Systematic evaluations of their incidence and associated risk factors in the lumbar spine are lacking. This study aimed to analyze and evaluate the incidence and risk factors of Modic changes in lumbar spine disorders.MethodsA comprehensive systematic review was conducted using Web of Science, PubMed, Cochrane Library, and Embase databases. Eligible studies reported the incidence and associated risk factors of Modic changes in the lumbar spine. Data were extracted and systematically analyzed from the selected studies, and meta-analyses were conducted employing random or fixed effects models.ResultsTwenty-five studies were included in the meta-analysis. The overall incidence of Modic changes was 35%. Six risk factors were identified and quantitatively assessed. Strong evidence supported the association of endplate changes (OR=3.56; 95% CI=2.00 to 6.32; p<0.0001); moderate evidence supported the association of age (OR=4.01; 95% CI=1.37 to 6.65; p=0.003), disc degeneration (OR=8.54; 95% CI=1.98 to 36.73; p=0.004), and lumbar lordosis angle (OR=-4.14; 95% CI=-6.79 to -1.49; p=0.002); minor evidence supported the association of spondylolisthesis (OR=2.00; 95% CI=1.12 to 3.58; p=0.02) and physical labor (OR=1.81; 95% CI=1.08 to 3.04; p=0.03) with the occurrence of Modic changes in the lumbar spine. No significant associations were found to support body mass index, sex, disc herniation, smoking, distributional segmentation, or sacral slope angle as risk factors for Modic changes in the lumbar spine.ConclusionModic changes occur in 35% of lumbar spine cases, with advanced age, disc degeneration, endplate changes, spondylolisthesis, reduced anterior lumbar lordosis angles, and participation in physical labor identified as associated risk factors.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fendo.2025.1585552/fullmodic changelumbar spinelower back painmeta-analysisincidencerisk factor
spellingShingle Zhenyu Cao
Zhenyu Cao
Zhenyu Cao
Mingtao Zhang
Mingtao Zhang
Jingwen Jia
Jingwen Jia
Guangzhi Zhang
Guangzhi Zhang
Lei Li
Lei Li
Zhili Yang
Zhili Yang
Feng Zheng
Xuewen Kang
Xuewen Kang
Incidence and risk factors for modic changes in the lumbar spine: a systematic review and meta-analysis
Frontiers in Endocrinology
modic change
lumbar spine
lower back pain
meta-analysis
incidence
risk factor
title Incidence and risk factors for modic changes in the lumbar spine: a systematic review and meta-analysis
title_full Incidence and risk factors for modic changes in the lumbar spine: a systematic review and meta-analysis
title_fullStr Incidence and risk factors for modic changes in the lumbar spine: a systematic review and meta-analysis
title_full_unstemmed Incidence and risk factors for modic changes in the lumbar spine: a systematic review and meta-analysis
title_short Incidence and risk factors for modic changes in the lumbar spine: a systematic review and meta-analysis
title_sort incidence and risk factors for modic changes in the lumbar spine a systematic review and meta analysis
topic modic change
lumbar spine
lower back pain
meta-analysis
incidence
risk factor
url https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fendo.2025.1585552/full
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