Climate-driven models reveal temporal trends in Aedes breeding: implications for outbreak preparedness and control interventions
Abstract Background Aedes-borne arboviral diseases, especially dengue, are on the rise. The global expansion of Aedes mosquitoes, driven by changing climatic conditions, has led to the emergence of these diseases in previously non-endemic regions. Effective entomological surveillance, which consider...
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2025-08-01
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-025-24060-w |
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| author | Jewelna Akorli Stephen K. D. Oware Derrick Baah Sackitey Reuben M. Pul Nukunu E. Akyea-Bobi Samuel S. Akporh Godwin K. Amlalo Joseph H. N. Osei Helena A. Boakye Mufeez Abudu Esinam A. Akorli Kwadwo K. Frempong Sellase Pi-Bansa Millicent Opoku Samuel K. Dadzie |
| author_facet | Jewelna Akorli Stephen K. D. Oware Derrick Baah Sackitey Reuben M. Pul Nukunu E. Akyea-Bobi Samuel S. Akporh Godwin K. Amlalo Joseph H. N. Osei Helena A. Boakye Mufeez Abudu Esinam A. Akorli Kwadwo K. Frempong Sellase Pi-Bansa Millicent Opoku Samuel K. Dadzie |
| author_sort | Jewelna Akorli |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background Aedes-borne arboviral diseases, especially dengue, are on the rise. The global expansion of Aedes mosquitoes, driven by changing climatic conditions, has led to the emergence of these diseases in previously non-endemic regions. Effective entomological surveillance, which considers changes in weather conditions, is crucial for the timely detection, emergency preparedness and control of Aedes-borne diseases. Methods In this study, we collected Aedes eggs using ovitraps and estimated peri-domestic larval indices from urban locations over 6 months. Regression models were applied to determine the influence of meteorological factors on Aedes breeding and temporal trends in entomological indices pertinent to disease risk prediction. Results Ovitraps and larval sampling identified different months as most conducive for Ae. aegypti breeding activities, highlighting the impact of sampling method on surveillance and data interpretation for outbreak preparedness. Temperature and wind speed were identified as strong predictors of the entomological indices investigated. Rainfall was not a consistent predictor of Ae. aegypti breeding, except when in combination with temperature or wind speed. The presence of unused tyres within the peri-domestic environment was identified as a primary breeding site, but other open receptacles such as discarded cans and broken clay pots, especially in the absence of tyres, also contributed to Aedes presence. Conclusions Our models demonstrated predictive potential for estimating vector populations and risk of disease outbreaks, which could help in emergency preparedness and the deployment of control measures. Additionally, these models offer a tool for anticipating shifts in vector distribution under changing climate conditions, providing valuable insights for improving disease prevention strategies. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-ef3e1b3882264acbbc3a311a78d0609d |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 1471-2458 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-08-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
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| series | BMC Public Health |
| spelling | doaj-art-ef3e1b3882264acbbc3a311a78d0609d2025-08-20T03:06:43ZengBMCBMC Public Health1471-24582025-08-0125111510.1186/s12889-025-24060-wClimate-driven models reveal temporal trends in Aedes breeding: implications for outbreak preparedness and control interventionsJewelna Akorli0Stephen K. D. Oware1Derrick Baah Sackitey2Reuben M. Pul3Nukunu E. Akyea-Bobi4Samuel S. Akporh5Godwin K. Amlalo6Joseph H. N. Osei7Helena A. Boakye8Mufeez Abudu9Esinam A. Akorli10Kwadwo K. Frempong11Sellase Pi-Bansa12Millicent Opoku13Samuel K. Dadzie14Department of Parasitology, Noguchi Memorial Institute for Medical Research, University of GhanaDepartment of Parasitology, Noguchi Memorial Institute for Medical Research, University of GhanaDepartment of Parasitology, Noguchi Memorial Institute for Medical Research, University of GhanaDepartment of Parasitology, Noguchi Memorial Institute for Medical Research, University of GhanaDepartment of Parasitology, Noguchi Memorial Institute for Medical Research, University of GhanaVestergaard NMIMR Vector Labs, Noguchi Memorial Institute for Medical Research, University of GhanaVestergaard NMIMR Vector Labs, Noguchi Memorial Institute for Medical Research, University of GhanaDepartment of Parasitology, Noguchi Memorial Institute for Medical Research, University of GhanaDepartment of Parasitology, Noguchi Memorial Institute for Medical Research, University of GhanaDepartment of Parasitology, Noguchi Memorial Institute for Medical Research, University of GhanaDepartment of Parasitology, Noguchi Memorial Institute for Medical Research, University of GhanaDepartment of Parasitology, Noguchi Memorial Institute for Medical Research, University of GhanaDepartment of Parasitology, Noguchi Memorial Institute for Medical Research, University of GhanaDepartment of Parasitology, Noguchi Memorial Institute for Medical Research, University of GhanaDepartment of Parasitology, Noguchi Memorial Institute for Medical Research, University of GhanaAbstract Background Aedes-borne arboviral diseases, especially dengue, are on the rise. The global expansion of Aedes mosquitoes, driven by changing climatic conditions, has led to the emergence of these diseases in previously non-endemic regions. Effective entomological surveillance, which considers changes in weather conditions, is crucial for the timely detection, emergency preparedness and control of Aedes-borne diseases. Methods In this study, we collected Aedes eggs using ovitraps and estimated peri-domestic larval indices from urban locations over 6 months. Regression models were applied to determine the influence of meteorological factors on Aedes breeding and temporal trends in entomological indices pertinent to disease risk prediction. Results Ovitraps and larval sampling identified different months as most conducive for Ae. aegypti breeding activities, highlighting the impact of sampling method on surveillance and data interpretation for outbreak preparedness. Temperature and wind speed were identified as strong predictors of the entomological indices investigated. Rainfall was not a consistent predictor of Ae. aegypti breeding, except when in combination with temperature or wind speed. The presence of unused tyres within the peri-domestic environment was identified as a primary breeding site, but other open receptacles such as discarded cans and broken clay pots, especially in the absence of tyres, also contributed to Aedes presence. Conclusions Our models demonstrated predictive potential for estimating vector populations and risk of disease outbreaks, which could help in emergency preparedness and the deployment of control measures. Additionally, these models offer a tool for anticipating shifts in vector distribution under changing climate conditions, providing valuable insights for improving disease prevention strategies.https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-025-24060-wAedes aegyptiEntomological surveillanceClimate factorsOvitrapsPeri-domestic containersDisease risk forecasting |
| spellingShingle | Jewelna Akorli Stephen K. D. Oware Derrick Baah Sackitey Reuben M. Pul Nukunu E. Akyea-Bobi Samuel S. Akporh Godwin K. Amlalo Joseph H. N. Osei Helena A. Boakye Mufeez Abudu Esinam A. Akorli Kwadwo K. Frempong Sellase Pi-Bansa Millicent Opoku Samuel K. Dadzie Climate-driven models reveal temporal trends in Aedes breeding: implications for outbreak preparedness and control interventions BMC Public Health Aedes aegypti Entomological surveillance Climate factors Ovitraps Peri-domestic containers Disease risk forecasting |
| title | Climate-driven models reveal temporal trends in Aedes breeding: implications for outbreak preparedness and control interventions |
| title_full | Climate-driven models reveal temporal trends in Aedes breeding: implications for outbreak preparedness and control interventions |
| title_fullStr | Climate-driven models reveal temporal trends in Aedes breeding: implications for outbreak preparedness and control interventions |
| title_full_unstemmed | Climate-driven models reveal temporal trends in Aedes breeding: implications for outbreak preparedness and control interventions |
| title_short | Climate-driven models reveal temporal trends in Aedes breeding: implications for outbreak preparedness and control interventions |
| title_sort | climate driven models reveal temporal trends in aedes breeding implications for outbreak preparedness and control interventions |
| topic | Aedes aegypti Entomological surveillance Climate factors Ovitraps Peri-domestic containers Disease risk forecasting |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-025-24060-w |
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