The protective effects of two varicella vaccination strategies: A Bayesian modeling study in two megacities in South China
Background China implemented diverse varicella vaccination strategies from 2012 to 2022, with unclear protective effects. The study aimed to evaluate the effects of two varicella vaccination (VarV) (the two-dose self-paid VarV and the two-dose free VarV) strategies implemented in Guangdong Province,...
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| Format: | Article |
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Taylor & Francis Group
2025-12-01
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| Series: | Expert Review of Vaccines |
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| Online Access: | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/14760584.2025.2476524 |
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| _version_ | 1850142170756939776 |
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| author | Xing Huang Jialing Li Yihan Li Weilin Zeng Qi Zhu Jun Liu Pei Hu Zhihua Zhu Zhongyi Fan Ying Yang Siqing Zeng Zhihao Li Jianpeng Xiao Limei Sun Jianfeng He |
| author_facet | Xing Huang Jialing Li Yihan Li Weilin Zeng Qi Zhu Jun Liu Pei Hu Zhihua Zhu Zhongyi Fan Ying Yang Siqing Zeng Zhihao Li Jianpeng Xiao Limei Sun Jianfeng He |
| author_sort | Xing Huang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Background China implemented diverse varicella vaccination strategies from 2012 to 2022, with unclear protective effects. The study aimed to evaluate the effects of two varicella vaccination (VarV) (the two-dose self-paid VarV and the two-dose free VarV) strategies implemented in Guangdong Province, China.Research design and methods We collected data on varicella cases and doses administered to children aged 0–14 in Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Foshan from 2012 to 2022. Using Bayesian Structured Time Series (BSTS) model, we estimated the effects of the two VarV strategies in Guangzhou and Shenzhen starting from 2018, by referencing Foshan.Results Post-implementation of the two-dose self-paid VarV strategy 36,749 (95% CI: 29070, 44428) and 24,179 (95% CI: 16400, 31958) varicella cases were averted in Guangzhou and Shenzhen, with a protection rate of 41.8% (95% CI: 36.3%, 46.5%) and 38.9% (95% CI: 30.2%, 45.7%), respectively. After the adoption of the two-dose free VarV strategy, a substantial relative protection rate of 64.2% (95% CI: 58.0%, 68.7%) in varicella cases was observed in Shenzhen, with 38,828 (95% CI: 29979, 47677) cases averted by 2022.Conclusions The two-dose VarV strategies have proven highly effective in reducing varicella incidence. The experience in Shenzhen underscores the benefits of a two-dose free VarV strategy. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-eef6863d5a064068bbf78161e392469f |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 1476-0584 1744-8395 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-12-01 |
| publisher | Taylor & Francis Group |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Expert Review of Vaccines |
| spelling | doaj-art-eef6863d5a064068bbf78161e392469f2025-08-20T02:29:11ZengTaylor & Francis GroupExpert Review of Vaccines1476-05841744-83952025-12-0124121222010.1080/14760584.2025.2476524The protective effects of two varicella vaccination strategies: A Bayesian modeling study in two megacities in South ChinaXing Huang0Jialing Li1Yihan Li2Weilin Zeng3Qi Zhu4Jun Liu5Pei Hu6Zhihua Zhu7Zhongyi Fan8Ying Yang9Siqing Zeng10Zhihao Li11Jianpeng Xiao12Limei Sun13Jianfeng He14School of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, ChinaGuangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, ChinaShipai Community Health Service Center, Guangzhou, ChinaGuangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, ChinaGuangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, ChinaGuangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, ChinaGuangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, ChinaGuangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, ChinaSchool of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, ChinaGuangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, ChinaGuangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, ChinaSchool of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, ChinaSchool of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, ChinaGuangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, ChinaGuangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, ChinaBackground China implemented diverse varicella vaccination strategies from 2012 to 2022, with unclear protective effects. The study aimed to evaluate the effects of two varicella vaccination (VarV) (the two-dose self-paid VarV and the two-dose free VarV) strategies implemented in Guangdong Province, China.Research design and methods We collected data on varicella cases and doses administered to children aged 0–14 in Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Foshan from 2012 to 2022. Using Bayesian Structured Time Series (BSTS) model, we estimated the effects of the two VarV strategies in Guangzhou and Shenzhen starting from 2018, by referencing Foshan.Results Post-implementation of the two-dose self-paid VarV strategy 36,749 (95% CI: 29070, 44428) and 24,179 (95% CI: 16400, 31958) varicella cases were averted in Guangzhou and Shenzhen, with a protection rate of 41.8% (95% CI: 36.3%, 46.5%) and 38.9% (95% CI: 30.2%, 45.7%), respectively. After the adoption of the two-dose free VarV strategy, a substantial relative protection rate of 64.2% (95% CI: 58.0%, 68.7%) in varicella cases was observed in Shenzhen, with 38,828 (95% CI: 29979, 47677) cases averted by 2022.Conclusions The two-dose VarV strategies have proven highly effective in reducing varicella incidence. The experience in Shenzhen underscores the benefits of a two-dose free VarV strategy.https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/14760584.2025.2476524BSTS modelprotection effectvaricellavaricella vaccinationvaccination strategies |
| spellingShingle | Xing Huang Jialing Li Yihan Li Weilin Zeng Qi Zhu Jun Liu Pei Hu Zhihua Zhu Zhongyi Fan Ying Yang Siqing Zeng Zhihao Li Jianpeng Xiao Limei Sun Jianfeng He The protective effects of two varicella vaccination strategies: A Bayesian modeling study in two megacities in South China Expert Review of Vaccines BSTS model protection effect varicella varicella vaccination vaccination strategies |
| title | The protective effects of two varicella vaccination strategies: A Bayesian modeling study in two megacities in South China |
| title_full | The protective effects of two varicella vaccination strategies: A Bayesian modeling study in two megacities in South China |
| title_fullStr | The protective effects of two varicella vaccination strategies: A Bayesian modeling study in two megacities in South China |
| title_full_unstemmed | The protective effects of two varicella vaccination strategies: A Bayesian modeling study in two megacities in South China |
| title_short | The protective effects of two varicella vaccination strategies: A Bayesian modeling study in two megacities in South China |
| title_sort | protective effects of two varicella vaccination strategies a bayesian modeling study in two megacities in south china |
| topic | BSTS model protection effect varicella varicella vaccination vaccination strategies |
| url | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/14760584.2025.2476524 |
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