Health and associated economic benefits of reduced air pollution and increased physical activity from climate change policies in the UK
Climate change policies do not always include analysis of air quality and physical activity co-benefits. We compared business as usual (BAU) UK policy with Net Zero scenarios from the UK Climate Change Committee for road transport and building sectors. We quantified and monetised the health benefits...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2025-02-01
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| Series: | Environment International |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160412025000340 |
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| author | Heather Walton David Dajnak Mike Holland Dimitris Evangelopoulos Dylan Wood Christian Brand Nosha Assareh Gregor Stewart Andrew Beddows Shawn YC Lee Daniela Fecht Yunzhe Liu Bethan Davies Anna Goodman Tuan Vu Sean Beevers |
| author_facet | Heather Walton David Dajnak Mike Holland Dimitris Evangelopoulos Dylan Wood Christian Brand Nosha Assareh Gregor Stewart Andrew Beddows Shawn YC Lee Daniela Fecht Yunzhe Liu Bethan Davies Anna Goodman Tuan Vu Sean Beevers |
| author_sort | Heather Walton |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Climate change policies do not always include analysis of air quality and physical activity co-benefits. We compared business as usual (BAU) UK policy with Net Zero scenarios from the UK Climate Change Committee for road transport and building sectors. We quantified and monetised the health benefits of the Balanced Net Zero (BNZP) and Widespread Innovation (WI) Pathways.Air pollution concentrations were predicted using Chemical Transport Models and population-weighted. Shifts from car to walking and cycling for transport were converted to METhrs/week. Literature concentration–response functions were combined with baseline rates from routine statistics/other sources. Mortality and multi-morbidity impacts were calculated using lifetable analysis, and an incidence/prevalence model from 2019 to 2154 (a lifetime after 2050). Monetary values were applied to the results.The BNZP policy compared with BAU gave 4.9 (95 % confidence interval 1.0–9.0) million life-years gained (LYG) (UK population, to 2154), including 1.1 (0.7–1.6) million LYG from active travel improvements. Avoided COPD and childhood asthma cases were 201,000 (150,000 – 250,000) and 192,000 (64,600–311,000). The monetised air quality morbidity benefits (£52.1 (36.4 – 67.8) billion) substantially added to the air quality mortality benefits (£77.9 (42.9 to 90.8) billion). Total yearly monetised benefits for BNZP vs BAU summed to 2154 (air pollution/active travel) were £153 (122 to 184) billion (core); 278 (228 to 334) billion (+outcomes with weaker evidence).Adding the effects of air pollution reductions on disease incidence, with effects of air pollution and physical activity on mortality, increases the monetised benefits that may justify Net Zero policies in cost-benefit analysis. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-ee588ee56bac4ec3b5185be0d8197597 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 0160-4120 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-02-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environment International |
| spelling | doaj-art-ee588ee56bac4ec3b5185be0d81975972025-02-07T04:46:38ZengElsevierEnvironment International0160-41202025-02-01196109283Health and associated economic benefits of reduced air pollution and increased physical activity from climate change policies in the UKHeather Walton0David Dajnak1Mike Holland2Dimitris Evangelopoulos3Dylan Wood4Christian Brand5Nosha Assareh6Gregor Stewart7Andrew Beddows8Shawn YC Lee9Daniela Fecht10Yunzhe Liu11Bethan Davies12Anna Goodman13Tuan Vu14Sean Beevers15Environmental Research Group, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, UK; MRC Centre for Environment and Health, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, UK; NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Environmental Exposures and Health, Imperial College London, UK; Corresponding author at: Environmental Research Group, Imperial College London, 10th Floor, Sir Michael Uren Building, White City Campus, London W12 7TA, UK.Environmental Research Group, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, UK; MRC Centre for Environment and Health, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, UK; NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Environmental Exposures and Health, Imperial College London, UKEcometrics Research and Consulting, Reading, UKEnvironmental Research Group, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, UK; MRC Centre for Environment and Health, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, UK; NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Environmental Exposures and Health, Imperial College London, UKEnvironmental Research Group, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, UK; MRC Centre for Environment and Health, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, UK; NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Environmental Exposures and Health, Imperial College London, UKTransport Studies Unit, University of Oxford, Oxford, UKEnvironmental Research Group, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, UK; MRC Centre for Environment and Health, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, UKEnvironmental Research Group, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, UK; MRC Centre for Environment and Health, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, UKEnvironmental Research Group, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, UK; MRC Centre for Environment and Health, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, UKEnvironmental Research Group, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, UK; NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Environmental Exposures and Health, Imperial College London, UKMRC Centre for Environment and Health, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, UK; NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Chemical and Radiation Threats and Hazards, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, UKMRC Centre for Environment and Health, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, UKMRC Centre for Environment and Health, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, UK; NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Chemical and Radiation Threats and Hazards, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, UKFaculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UKEnvironmental Research Group, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, UK; MRC Centre for Environment and Health, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, UKEnvironmental Research Group, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, UK; MRC Centre for Environment and Health, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, UK; NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Environmental Exposures and Health, Imperial College London, UKClimate change policies do not always include analysis of air quality and physical activity co-benefits. We compared business as usual (BAU) UK policy with Net Zero scenarios from the UK Climate Change Committee for road transport and building sectors. We quantified and monetised the health benefits of the Balanced Net Zero (BNZP) and Widespread Innovation (WI) Pathways.Air pollution concentrations were predicted using Chemical Transport Models and population-weighted. Shifts from car to walking and cycling for transport were converted to METhrs/week. Literature concentration–response functions were combined with baseline rates from routine statistics/other sources. Mortality and multi-morbidity impacts were calculated using lifetable analysis, and an incidence/prevalence model from 2019 to 2154 (a lifetime after 2050). Monetary values were applied to the results.The BNZP policy compared with BAU gave 4.9 (95 % confidence interval 1.0–9.0) million life-years gained (LYG) (UK population, to 2154), including 1.1 (0.7–1.6) million LYG from active travel improvements. Avoided COPD and childhood asthma cases were 201,000 (150,000 – 250,000) and 192,000 (64,600–311,000). The monetised air quality morbidity benefits (£52.1 (36.4 – 67.8) billion) substantially added to the air quality mortality benefits (£77.9 (42.9 to 90.8) billion). Total yearly monetised benefits for BNZP vs BAU summed to 2154 (air pollution/active travel) were £153 (122 to 184) billion (core); 278 (228 to 334) billion (+outcomes with weaker evidence).Adding the effects of air pollution reductions on disease incidence, with effects of air pollution and physical activity on mortality, increases the monetised benefits that may justify Net Zero policies in cost-benefit analysis.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160412025000340Air pollutionPhysical activityClimate change policyHealth impact assessmentEconomic analysisNet zero |
| spellingShingle | Heather Walton David Dajnak Mike Holland Dimitris Evangelopoulos Dylan Wood Christian Brand Nosha Assareh Gregor Stewart Andrew Beddows Shawn YC Lee Daniela Fecht Yunzhe Liu Bethan Davies Anna Goodman Tuan Vu Sean Beevers Health and associated economic benefits of reduced air pollution and increased physical activity from climate change policies in the UK Environment International Air pollution Physical activity Climate change policy Health impact assessment Economic analysis Net zero |
| title | Health and associated economic benefits of reduced air pollution and increased physical activity from climate change policies in the UK |
| title_full | Health and associated economic benefits of reduced air pollution and increased physical activity from climate change policies in the UK |
| title_fullStr | Health and associated economic benefits of reduced air pollution and increased physical activity from climate change policies in the UK |
| title_full_unstemmed | Health and associated economic benefits of reduced air pollution and increased physical activity from climate change policies in the UK |
| title_short | Health and associated economic benefits of reduced air pollution and increased physical activity from climate change policies in the UK |
| title_sort | health and associated economic benefits of reduced air pollution and increased physical activity from climate change policies in the uk |
| topic | Air pollution Physical activity Climate change policy Health impact assessment Economic analysis Net zero |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160412025000340 |
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