Modelling measles transmission dynamics and the impact of control strategies on outbreak Management
Measles is a highly contagious and potentially fatal disease, despite the availability of effective immunizations. This study formulates a deterministic mathematical model to investigate the transmission dynamics of measles, with eight compartments representing different epidemiological states such...
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Taylor & Francis Group
2025-12-01
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| Series: | Journal of Biological Dynamics |
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| Online Access: | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/17513758.2025.2479448 |
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| author | Olumuyiwa James Peter |
| author_facet | Olumuyiwa James Peter |
| author_sort | Olumuyiwa James Peter |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Measles is a highly contagious and potentially fatal disease, despite the availability of effective immunizations. This study formulates a deterministic mathematical model to investigate the transmission dynamics of measles, with eight compartments representing different epidemiological states such as susceptible, vaccinated, exposed, infected, early-treated, delayed-treated, hospitalized, and recovered individuals. We use the Next Generation Matrix (NGN) approach to obtain the basic reproduction number ([Formula: see text]) and examine local stability at the disease-free equilibrium (DFE). Sensitivity analysis with Partial Rank Correlation Coefficients (PRCC) identifies significant parameters influencing disease dynamics, such as vaccination rates, transmission rate, treatment timings, and disease-induced mortality rates. Simulation results show that delayed therapy has a limited effect on lowering the infected population, emphasizing the importance of immediate intervention. Early treatment considerably reduces the number of infected individuals, whereas improved recovery rates in hospitalized cases result in fewer hospitalizations. Vaccination is extremely successful, with increased rates significantly lowering the susceptible population while boosting the vaccinated population. Higher disease-related mortality rates reduce the afflicted population, stressing the importance of strong control methods. The transmission rate has a substantial impact on infection rates and hospitalizations, emphasizing the need for effective public health policies and healthcare capacity. The combined effect of immunization and early treatment provides useful information for optimizing control measures. This study emphasizes the need of quick and effective measures in managing measles outbreaks and serves as a platform for future research into improved public health methods. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-ee48bf397eaf426c80827e6d79524b19 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 1751-3758 1751-3766 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-12-01 |
| publisher | Taylor & Francis Group |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Biological Dynamics |
| spelling | doaj-art-ee48bf397eaf426c80827e6d79524b192025-08-20T02:06:43ZengTaylor & Francis GroupJournal of Biological Dynamics1751-37581751-37662025-12-0119110.1080/17513758.2025.2479448Modelling measles transmission dynamics and the impact of control strategies on outbreak ManagementOlumuyiwa James Peter0Department of Mathematical and Computer Sciences, University of Medical Sciences, Ondo City, NigeriaMeasles is a highly contagious and potentially fatal disease, despite the availability of effective immunizations. This study formulates a deterministic mathematical model to investigate the transmission dynamics of measles, with eight compartments representing different epidemiological states such as susceptible, vaccinated, exposed, infected, early-treated, delayed-treated, hospitalized, and recovered individuals. We use the Next Generation Matrix (NGN) approach to obtain the basic reproduction number ([Formula: see text]) and examine local stability at the disease-free equilibrium (DFE). Sensitivity analysis with Partial Rank Correlation Coefficients (PRCC) identifies significant parameters influencing disease dynamics, such as vaccination rates, transmission rate, treatment timings, and disease-induced mortality rates. Simulation results show that delayed therapy has a limited effect on lowering the infected population, emphasizing the importance of immediate intervention. Early treatment considerably reduces the number of infected individuals, whereas improved recovery rates in hospitalized cases result in fewer hospitalizations. Vaccination is extremely successful, with increased rates significantly lowering the susceptible population while boosting the vaccinated population. Higher disease-related mortality rates reduce the afflicted population, stressing the importance of strong control methods. The transmission rate has a substantial impact on infection rates and hospitalizations, emphasizing the need for effective public health policies and healthcare capacity. The combined effect of immunization and early treatment provides useful information for optimizing control measures. This study emphasizes the need of quick and effective measures in managing measles outbreaks and serves as a platform for future research into improved public health methods.https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/17513758.2025.2479448Measles modelbasic reproduction numberstability analysisvaccination91A4034D23 |
| spellingShingle | Olumuyiwa James Peter Modelling measles transmission dynamics and the impact of control strategies on outbreak Management Journal of Biological Dynamics Measles model basic reproduction number stability analysis vaccination 91A40 34D23 |
| title | Modelling measles transmission dynamics and the impact of control strategies on outbreak Management |
| title_full | Modelling measles transmission dynamics and the impact of control strategies on outbreak Management |
| title_fullStr | Modelling measles transmission dynamics and the impact of control strategies on outbreak Management |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modelling measles transmission dynamics and the impact of control strategies on outbreak Management |
| title_short | Modelling measles transmission dynamics and the impact of control strategies on outbreak Management |
| title_sort | modelling measles transmission dynamics and the impact of control strategies on outbreak management |
| topic | Measles model basic reproduction number stability analysis vaccination 91A40 34D23 |
| url | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/17513758.2025.2479448 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT olumuyiwajamespeter modellingmeaslestransmissiondynamicsandtheimpactofcontrolstrategiesonoutbreakmanagement |