Construction and validation of a predictive model for the serum phosphorus reduction after total parathyroidectomy in patients with secondary hyperparathyroidism

ObjectiveWe aimed to construct a predictive scoring model for the factors influencing serum phosphorus reduction following total parathyroidectomy (tPTX) in secondary hyperparathyroidism (SHPT) and provide a reference for identifying patients who can successfully correct hyperphosphatemia before sur...

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Main Authors: Yingnan Feng, Yinghui Zhou, Xiaodong Feng, Qila Sa, Ningyuan Zhang, Wantao Xie, Bailiang Liu, Fengyang Chen, Guangming Cheng, Wei Zhang
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Frontiers Media S.A. 2025-05-01
Series:Frontiers in Endocrinology
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Online Access:https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fendo.2025.1584602/full
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author Yingnan Feng
Yingnan Feng
Yinghui Zhou
Xiaodong Feng
Qila Sa
Qila Sa
Ningyuan Zhang
Ningyuan Zhang
Wantao Xie
Wantao Xie
Bailiang Liu
Fengyang Chen
Guangming Cheng
Wei Zhang
author_facet Yingnan Feng
Yingnan Feng
Yinghui Zhou
Xiaodong Feng
Qila Sa
Qila Sa
Ningyuan Zhang
Ningyuan Zhang
Wantao Xie
Wantao Xie
Bailiang Liu
Fengyang Chen
Guangming Cheng
Wei Zhang
author_sort Yingnan Feng
collection DOAJ
description ObjectiveWe aimed to construct a predictive scoring model for the factors influencing serum phosphorus reduction following total parathyroidectomy (tPTX) in secondary hyperparathyroidism (SHPT) and provide a reference for identifying patients who can successfully correct hyperphosphatemia before surgery.MethodsThe clinical data of 529 patients with SHPT who underwent tPTX were retrospectively analyzed according to the inclusion and exclusion criteria. Univariate and multivariate analyses were conducted to determine the independent factors and establish a predictive scoring model. The receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) was applied to verify the model in the training and validation groups, respectively.ResultsIn the whole group, 315 patients had a significant decrease in serum phosphorus after tPTX. Univariate and multivariate analysis showed that preoperative alkaline phosphatase (AKP), intact parathyroid hormone (iPTH) and free triiodothyronine (FT3) were independent influencing factors to promote the decrease of serum phosphorus after tPTX; Serum phosphorus and bone pain were inhibitory factors (all P<0.05). According to the cut-off value, AKP>193.33 U/L, iPTH>1808 pg/mL, FT3>2.825 pg/mL, serum phosphorus>2.285 mmol/L and bone pain were used to establish the predictive scoring model for serum phosphorus decline. The results showed that the success rate of serum phosphorus reduction was 67.55% at 10~14 points and 95.35% at 15~24 points. The area under ROC curves (AUC) for the training and validation group were 0.818 (95% CI=0.775~0.861) and 0.840 (95% CI=0.780~0.901, both P<0.05).ConclusionThe established prediction score model for serum phosphorus decrease has a good prediction efficiency which is helpful for the early identification. The model provides important clinical guidance for the postoperative management and treatment of SHPT.
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spelling doaj-art-ee0d501e9f394775bab745d52ce2a5df2025-08-20T03:12:47ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Endocrinology1664-23922025-05-011610.3389/fendo.2025.15846021584602Construction and validation of a predictive model for the serum phosphorus reduction after total parathyroidectomy in patients with secondary hyperparathyroidismYingnan Feng0Yingnan Feng1Yinghui Zhou2Xiaodong Feng3Qila Sa4Qila Sa5Ningyuan Zhang6Ningyuan Zhang7Wantao Xie8Wantao Xie9Bailiang Liu10Fengyang Chen11Guangming Cheng12Wei Zhang13Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, General Hospital of Northern Theater Command, Shenyang, ChinaPostgraduate College, Dalian Medical University, Dalian, ChinaDepartment of Hepatobiliary Surgery, General Hospital of Northern Theater Command, Shenyang, ChinaDepartment of Hepatobiliary Surgery, General Hospital of Northern Theater Command, Shenyang, ChinaDepartment of Hepatobiliary Surgery, General Hospital of Northern Theater Command, Shenyang, ChinaPostgraduate College, Dalian Medical University, Dalian, ChinaDepartment of Hepatobiliary Surgery, General Hospital of Northern Theater Command, Shenyang, ChinaPostgraduate College, China Medical University, Shenyang, ChinaDepartment of Hepatobiliary Surgery, General Hospital of Northern Theater Command, Shenyang, ChinaPostgraduate College, China Medical University, Shenyang, ChinaDepartment of Hepatobiliary Surgery, General Hospital of Northern Theater Command, Shenyang, ChinaDepartment of Hepatobiliary Surgery, General Hospital of Northern Theater Command, Shenyang, ChinaDepartment of Hepatobiliary Surgery, General Hospital of Northern Theater Command, Shenyang, ChinaDepartment of Hepatobiliary Surgery, General Hospital of Northern Theater Command, Shenyang, ChinaObjectiveWe aimed to construct a predictive scoring model for the factors influencing serum phosphorus reduction following total parathyroidectomy (tPTX) in secondary hyperparathyroidism (SHPT) and provide a reference for identifying patients who can successfully correct hyperphosphatemia before surgery.MethodsThe clinical data of 529 patients with SHPT who underwent tPTX were retrospectively analyzed according to the inclusion and exclusion criteria. Univariate and multivariate analyses were conducted to determine the independent factors and establish a predictive scoring model. The receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) was applied to verify the model in the training and validation groups, respectively.ResultsIn the whole group, 315 patients had a significant decrease in serum phosphorus after tPTX. Univariate and multivariate analysis showed that preoperative alkaline phosphatase (AKP), intact parathyroid hormone (iPTH) and free triiodothyronine (FT3) were independent influencing factors to promote the decrease of serum phosphorus after tPTX; Serum phosphorus and bone pain were inhibitory factors (all P<0.05). According to the cut-off value, AKP>193.33 U/L, iPTH>1808 pg/mL, FT3>2.825 pg/mL, serum phosphorus>2.285 mmol/L and bone pain were used to establish the predictive scoring model for serum phosphorus decline. The results showed that the success rate of serum phosphorus reduction was 67.55% at 10~14 points and 95.35% at 15~24 points. The area under ROC curves (AUC) for the training and validation group were 0.818 (95% CI=0.775~0.861) and 0.840 (95% CI=0.780~0.901, both P<0.05).ConclusionThe established prediction score model for serum phosphorus decrease has a good prediction efficiency which is helpful for the early identification. The model provides important clinical guidance for the postoperative management and treatment of SHPT.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fendo.2025.1584602/fullsecondary hyperparathyroidismtotal parathyroidectomyhyperphosphatemiarisk factorspredictive model
spellingShingle Yingnan Feng
Yingnan Feng
Yinghui Zhou
Xiaodong Feng
Qila Sa
Qila Sa
Ningyuan Zhang
Ningyuan Zhang
Wantao Xie
Wantao Xie
Bailiang Liu
Fengyang Chen
Guangming Cheng
Wei Zhang
Construction and validation of a predictive model for the serum phosphorus reduction after total parathyroidectomy in patients with secondary hyperparathyroidism
Frontiers in Endocrinology
secondary hyperparathyroidism
total parathyroidectomy
hyperphosphatemia
risk factors
predictive model
title Construction and validation of a predictive model for the serum phosphorus reduction after total parathyroidectomy in patients with secondary hyperparathyroidism
title_full Construction and validation of a predictive model for the serum phosphorus reduction after total parathyroidectomy in patients with secondary hyperparathyroidism
title_fullStr Construction and validation of a predictive model for the serum phosphorus reduction after total parathyroidectomy in patients with secondary hyperparathyroidism
title_full_unstemmed Construction and validation of a predictive model for the serum phosphorus reduction after total parathyroidectomy in patients with secondary hyperparathyroidism
title_short Construction and validation of a predictive model for the serum phosphorus reduction after total parathyroidectomy in patients with secondary hyperparathyroidism
title_sort construction and validation of a predictive model for the serum phosphorus reduction after total parathyroidectomy in patients with secondary hyperparathyroidism
topic secondary hyperparathyroidism
total parathyroidectomy
hyperphosphatemia
risk factors
predictive model
url https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fendo.2025.1584602/full
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