Coupled Climate Models Systematically Underestimate Radiation Response to Surface Warming
Abstract A realistic representation of top‐of‐the‐atmosphere (TOA) radiation response to surface warming is key for trusting climate model projections. We show that coupled models with freely evolving ocean‐atmosphere interactions systematically underestimate the observed global TOA radiation trend...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2024-03-01
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| Series: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL106909 |
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| author | Dirk Olonscheck Maria Rugenstein |
| author_facet | Dirk Olonscheck Maria Rugenstein |
| author_sort | Dirk Olonscheck |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract A realistic representation of top‐of‐the‐atmosphere (TOA) radiation response to surface warming is key for trusting climate model projections. We show that coupled models with freely evolving ocean‐atmosphere interactions systematically underestimate the observed global TOA radiation trend during 2001–2022 in 552 simulations. Locally, even if a simulation spontaneously reproduces observed surface temperature trends, TOA radiation trends are more likely under‐ than overestimated. This response bias stems from the models' inability to reproduce the observed large‐scale surface warming pattern and from errors in the atmospheric physics affecting short‐ and longwave radiation. Models with a better representation of the TOA radiation response to local surface warming have a relatively low equilibrium climate sensitivity. Our bias metric is a novel process‐based approach which links a model's current response to climate change to its behavior in the future. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-edc6f041e5e64cd183110384e16ddf0d |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 0094-8276 1944-8007 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-03-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geophysical Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-edc6f041e5e64cd183110384e16ddf0d2025-08-20T01:51:57ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072024-03-01516n/an/a10.1029/2023GL106909Coupled Climate Models Systematically Underestimate Radiation Response to Surface WarmingDirk Olonscheck0Maria Rugenstein1Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Hamburg GermanyColorado State University Fort Collins CO USAAbstract A realistic representation of top‐of‐the‐atmosphere (TOA) radiation response to surface warming is key for trusting climate model projections. We show that coupled models with freely evolving ocean‐atmosphere interactions systematically underestimate the observed global TOA radiation trend during 2001–2022 in 552 simulations. Locally, even if a simulation spontaneously reproduces observed surface temperature trends, TOA radiation trends are more likely under‐ than overestimated. This response bias stems from the models' inability to reproduce the observed large‐scale surface warming pattern and from errors in the atmospheric physics affecting short‐ and longwave radiation. Models with a better representation of the TOA radiation response to local surface warming have a relatively low equilibrium climate sensitivity. Our bias metric is a novel process‐based approach which links a model's current response to climate change to its behavior in the future.https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL106909radiationocean‐atmosphere interactionmodel evaluationlarge ensemblespattern effectclimate sensitivity |
| spellingShingle | Dirk Olonscheck Maria Rugenstein Coupled Climate Models Systematically Underestimate Radiation Response to Surface Warming Geophysical Research Letters radiation ocean‐atmosphere interaction model evaluation large ensembles pattern effect climate sensitivity |
| title | Coupled Climate Models Systematically Underestimate Radiation Response to Surface Warming |
| title_full | Coupled Climate Models Systematically Underestimate Radiation Response to Surface Warming |
| title_fullStr | Coupled Climate Models Systematically Underestimate Radiation Response to Surface Warming |
| title_full_unstemmed | Coupled Climate Models Systematically Underestimate Radiation Response to Surface Warming |
| title_short | Coupled Climate Models Systematically Underestimate Radiation Response to Surface Warming |
| title_sort | coupled climate models systematically underestimate radiation response to surface warming |
| topic | radiation ocean‐atmosphere interaction model evaluation large ensembles pattern effect climate sensitivity |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL106909 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT dirkolonscheck coupledclimatemodelssystematicallyunderestimateradiationresponsetosurfacewarming AT mariarugenstein coupledclimatemodelssystematicallyunderestimateradiationresponsetosurfacewarming |