The Efficacy of the New Energy Vehicle Mandate Policy on Passenger Vehicle Market in China
This paper aims to assess the impact of the New Energy Vehicle (NEV) mandate policy on the passenger vehicle market in China, with a focus on its effectiveness in promoting NEV adoption. In response to global climate goals and energy security concerns, China has implemented various NEV policies, inc...
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MDPI AG
2025-03-01
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| Series: | World Electric Vehicle Journal |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2032-6653/16/3/151 |
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| author | Ning Wang Xiufeng Li Xuening Yang |
| author_facet | Ning Wang Xiufeng Li Xuening Yang |
| author_sort | Ning Wang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This paper aims to assess the impact of the New Energy Vehicle (NEV) mandate policy on the passenger vehicle market in China, with a focus on its effectiveness in promoting NEV adoption. In response to global climate goals and energy security concerns, China has implemented various NEV policies, including the phase-out of direct subsidies and the introduction of the NEV mandate policy (dual-credits policy). This policy, which combines NEV credits and Corporate Average Fuel Consumption (CAFC) credits, aims not only to promote NEV adoption but also to support industrial policy objectives by helping the auto industry leapfrog traditional internal combustion engines and become globally competitive. In this study, a System Dynamics (SD) model was developed using Vensim software (10.2.2) to simulate interactions between automakers, government policies, and consumer behaviors. The results show that the NEV mandate policy significantly boosts NEV sales, with projections indicating that NEV sales will reach 15 million units by 2030, accounting for 55% of the passenger vehicle market. Additionally, the study finds that tightening NEV credits standards and increasing the NEV credit proportion requirements can further enhance market growth, with stricter measures post-2023 being crucial to achieving a 50% market share. In contrast, under a scenario where the dual-credits policy ends in 2024, the NEV market share would still grow but would fall short of the 50% target by 2030. The findings suggest that stronger policy measures will be essential to maintain long-term market momentum. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-ed7018a209804cb5b1a66b1456baebef |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2032-6653 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-03-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | World Electric Vehicle Journal |
| spelling | doaj-art-ed7018a209804cb5b1a66b1456baebef2025-08-20T01:50:07ZengMDPI AGWorld Electric Vehicle Journal2032-66532025-03-0116315110.3390/wevj16030151The Efficacy of the New Energy Vehicle Mandate Policy on Passenger Vehicle Market in ChinaNing Wang0Xiufeng Li1Xuening Yang2School of Automotive Studies, Tongji University, Shanghai 201804, ChinaSchool of Automotive Studies, Tongji University, Shanghai 201804, ChinaSchool of Automotive Studies, Tongji University, Shanghai 201804, ChinaThis paper aims to assess the impact of the New Energy Vehicle (NEV) mandate policy on the passenger vehicle market in China, with a focus on its effectiveness in promoting NEV adoption. In response to global climate goals and energy security concerns, China has implemented various NEV policies, including the phase-out of direct subsidies and the introduction of the NEV mandate policy (dual-credits policy). This policy, which combines NEV credits and Corporate Average Fuel Consumption (CAFC) credits, aims not only to promote NEV adoption but also to support industrial policy objectives by helping the auto industry leapfrog traditional internal combustion engines and become globally competitive. In this study, a System Dynamics (SD) model was developed using Vensim software (10.2.2) to simulate interactions between automakers, government policies, and consumer behaviors. The results show that the NEV mandate policy significantly boosts NEV sales, with projections indicating that NEV sales will reach 15 million units by 2030, accounting for 55% of the passenger vehicle market. Additionally, the study finds that tightening NEV credits standards and increasing the NEV credit proportion requirements can further enhance market growth, with stricter measures post-2023 being crucial to achieving a 50% market share. In contrast, under a scenario where the dual-credits policy ends in 2024, the NEV market share would still grow but would fall short of the 50% target by 2030. The findings suggest that stronger policy measures will be essential to maintain long-term market momentum.https://www.mdpi.com/2032-6653/16/3/151new energy vehicle mandate policydual-credits policysystem dynamics modelautomobile marketpolicy impactpolicy trend |
| spellingShingle | Ning Wang Xiufeng Li Xuening Yang The Efficacy of the New Energy Vehicle Mandate Policy on Passenger Vehicle Market in China World Electric Vehicle Journal new energy vehicle mandate policy dual-credits policy system dynamics model automobile market policy impact policy trend |
| title | The Efficacy of the New Energy Vehicle Mandate Policy on Passenger Vehicle Market in China |
| title_full | The Efficacy of the New Energy Vehicle Mandate Policy on Passenger Vehicle Market in China |
| title_fullStr | The Efficacy of the New Energy Vehicle Mandate Policy on Passenger Vehicle Market in China |
| title_full_unstemmed | The Efficacy of the New Energy Vehicle Mandate Policy on Passenger Vehicle Market in China |
| title_short | The Efficacy of the New Energy Vehicle Mandate Policy on Passenger Vehicle Market in China |
| title_sort | efficacy of the new energy vehicle mandate policy on passenger vehicle market in china |
| topic | new energy vehicle mandate policy dual-credits policy system dynamics model automobile market policy impact policy trend |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2032-6653/16/3/151 |
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