Several Sets of Assumptions for the Monte Carlo Simulation for a More Precise Analysis of Enterprise Risk
The traditional methods of risk quantification include a sensitivity analysis, a scenario analysis and a historical simulation. The true nature of risk factors changes is ignored in the traditional 'ceteris paribus' approach to a sensitivity analysis, hence it can be reflected in a scenari...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu
2019-01-01
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| Series: | Ekonometria |
| Online Access: | https://journals.ue.wroc.pl/eada/article/view/912 |
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| author | Jan Kaczmarzyk |
| author_facet | Jan Kaczmarzyk |
| author_sort | Jan Kaczmarzyk |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The traditional methods of risk quantification include a sensitivity analysis, a scenario analysis and a historical simulation. The true nature of risk factors changes is ignored in the traditional 'ceteris paribus' approach to a sensitivity analysis, hence it can be reflected in a scenario analysis and a historical simulation. The most significant disadvantage of a scenario analysis is the limited number of scenarios, whereas a historical simulation depends on historical data availability and adequacy. The Monte Carlo simulation is a clear answer to the limitations of traditional methods. The changes of risk factors reflected in the Monte Carlo simulation are simultaneous, non-linear and interdependent. The most important aspect of this method is the stage of taking up the assumptions. The purpose of the paper is to indicate that considering several reasonable sets of assumptions for the Monte Carlo simulation simultaneously can bring even more comprehensive information about enterprise risk.(original abstract) |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-ed46937e094e445d9111298abf637f05 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2449-9994 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2019-01-01 |
| publisher | Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Ekonometria |
| spelling | doaj-art-ed46937e094e445d9111298abf637f052025-08-20T02:09:12ZengWydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we WrocławiuEkonometria2449-99942019-01-01nr 4913Several Sets of Assumptions for the Monte Carlo Simulation for a More Precise Analysis of Enterprise RiskJan Kaczmarzyk0University of Economics in Katowice, PolandThe traditional methods of risk quantification include a sensitivity analysis, a scenario analysis and a historical simulation. The true nature of risk factors changes is ignored in the traditional 'ceteris paribus' approach to a sensitivity analysis, hence it can be reflected in a scenario analysis and a historical simulation. The most significant disadvantage of a scenario analysis is the limited number of scenarios, whereas a historical simulation depends on historical data availability and adequacy. The Monte Carlo simulation is a clear answer to the limitations of traditional methods. The changes of risk factors reflected in the Monte Carlo simulation are simultaneous, non-linear and interdependent. The most important aspect of this method is the stage of taking up the assumptions. The purpose of the paper is to indicate that considering several reasonable sets of assumptions for the Monte Carlo simulation simultaneously can bring even more comprehensive information about enterprise risk.(original abstract)https://journals.ue.wroc.pl/eada/article/view/912 |
| spellingShingle | Jan Kaczmarzyk Several Sets of Assumptions for the Monte Carlo Simulation for a More Precise Analysis of Enterprise Risk Ekonometria |
| title | Several Sets of Assumptions for the Monte Carlo Simulation for a More Precise Analysis of Enterprise Risk |
| title_full | Several Sets of Assumptions for the Monte Carlo Simulation for a More Precise Analysis of Enterprise Risk |
| title_fullStr | Several Sets of Assumptions for the Monte Carlo Simulation for a More Precise Analysis of Enterprise Risk |
| title_full_unstemmed | Several Sets of Assumptions for the Monte Carlo Simulation for a More Precise Analysis of Enterprise Risk |
| title_short | Several Sets of Assumptions for the Monte Carlo Simulation for a More Precise Analysis of Enterprise Risk |
| title_sort | several sets of assumptions for the monte carlo simulation for a more precise analysis of enterprise risk |
| url | https://journals.ue.wroc.pl/eada/article/view/912 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT jankaczmarzyk severalsetsofassumptionsforthemontecarlosimulationforamorepreciseanalysisofenterpriserisk |