CMEs and SEPs During November–December 2020: A Challenge for Real‐Time Space Weather Forecasting
Abstract Predictions of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and solar energetic particles (SEPs) are a central issue in space weather forecasting. In recent years, interest in space weather predictions has expanded to include impacts at other planets beyond Earth as well as spacecraft scattered throughout...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Wiley
2022-05-01
|
| Series: | Space Weather |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2021SW002993 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1841536374104129536 |
|---|---|
| author | Erika Palmerio Christina O. Lee M. Leila Mays Janet G. Luhmann David Lario Beatriz Sánchez‐Cano Ian G. Richardson Rami Vainio Michael L. Stevens Christina M. S. Cohen Konrad Steinvall Christian Möstl Andreas J. Weiss Teresa Nieves‐Chinchilla Yan Li Davin E. Larson Daniel Heyner Stuart D. Bale Antoinette B. Galvin Mats Holmström Yuri V. Khotyaintsev Milan Maksimovic Igor G. Mitrofanov |
| author_facet | Erika Palmerio Christina O. Lee M. Leila Mays Janet G. Luhmann David Lario Beatriz Sánchez‐Cano Ian G. Richardson Rami Vainio Michael L. Stevens Christina M. S. Cohen Konrad Steinvall Christian Möstl Andreas J. Weiss Teresa Nieves‐Chinchilla Yan Li Davin E. Larson Daniel Heyner Stuart D. Bale Antoinette B. Galvin Mats Holmström Yuri V. Khotyaintsev Milan Maksimovic Igor G. Mitrofanov |
| author_sort | Erika Palmerio |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Predictions of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and solar energetic particles (SEPs) are a central issue in space weather forecasting. In recent years, interest in space weather predictions has expanded to include impacts at other planets beyond Earth as well as spacecraft scattered throughout the heliosphere. In this sense, the scope of space weather science now encompasses the whole heliospheric system, and multipoint measurements of solar transients can provide useful insights and validations for prediction models. In this work, we aim to analyze the whole inner heliospheric context between two eruptive flares that took place in late 2020, that is, the M4.4 flare of 29 November and the C7.4 flare of 7 December. This period is especially interesting because the STEREO‐A spacecraft was located ∼60° east of the Sun–Earth line, giving us the opportunity to test the capabilities of “predictions at 360°” using remote‐sensing observations from the Lagrange L1 and L5 points as input. We simulate the CMEs that were ejected during our period of interest and the SEPs accelerated by their shocks using the WSA–Enlil–SEPMOD modeling chain and four sets of input parameters, forming a “mini‐ensemble.” We validate our results using in situ observations at six locations, including Earth and Mars. We find that, despite some limitations arising from the models' architecture and assumptions, CMEs and shock‐accelerated SEPs can be reasonably studied and forecast in real time at least out to several tens of degrees away from the eruption site using the prediction tools employed here. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-ed06bd0936364243beba0de7ccaccb97 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1542-7390 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2022-05-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Space Weather |
| spelling | doaj-art-ed06bd0936364243beba0de7ccaccb972025-01-14T16:31:05ZengWileySpace Weather1542-73902022-05-01205n/an/a10.1029/2021SW002993CMEs and SEPs During November–December 2020: A Challenge for Real‐Time Space Weather ForecastingErika Palmerio0Christina O. Lee1M. Leila Mays2Janet G. Luhmann3David Lario4Beatriz Sánchez‐Cano5Ian G. Richardson6Rami Vainio7Michael L. Stevens8Christina M. S. Cohen9Konrad Steinvall10Christian Möstl11Andreas J. Weiss12Teresa Nieves‐Chinchilla13Yan Li14Davin E. Larson15Daniel Heyner16Stuart D. Bale17Antoinette B. Galvin18Mats Holmström19Yuri V. Khotyaintsev20Milan Maksimovic21Igor G. Mitrofanov22Space Sciences Laboratory University of California–Berkeley Berkeley CA USASpace Sciences Laboratory University of California–Berkeley Berkeley CA USAHeliophysics Science Division NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt MD USASpace Sciences Laboratory University of California–Berkeley Berkeley CA USAHeliophysics Science Division NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt MD USASchool of Physics and Astronomy University of Leicester Leicester UKHeliophysics Science Division NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt MD USADepartment of Physics and Astronomy University of Turku Turku FinlandHarvard–Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics Cambridge MA USACalifornia Institute of Technology Pasadena CA USASwedish Institute of Space Physics Uppsala SwedenSpace Research Institute Austrian Academy of Sciences Graz AustriaSpace Research Institute Austrian Academy of Sciences Graz AustriaHeliophysics Science Division NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt MD USASpace Sciences Laboratory University of California–Berkeley Berkeley CA USASpace Sciences Laboratory University of California–Berkeley Berkeley CA USAInstitut für Geophysik und extraterrestrische Physik TU Braunschweig Braunschweig GermanySpace Sciences Laboratory University of California–Berkeley Berkeley CA USASpace Science Center University of New Hampshire Durham NH USASwedish Institute of Space Physics Kiruna SwedenSwedish Institute of Space Physics Uppsala SwedenLESIA Observatoire de Paris Université PSL CNRS Sorbonne Université Université Paris Diderot Meudon FranceSpace Research Institute Russian Academy of Sciences Moscow RussiaAbstract Predictions of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and solar energetic particles (SEPs) are a central issue in space weather forecasting. In recent years, interest in space weather predictions has expanded to include impacts at other planets beyond Earth as well as spacecraft scattered throughout the heliosphere. In this sense, the scope of space weather science now encompasses the whole heliospheric system, and multipoint measurements of solar transients can provide useful insights and validations for prediction models. In this work, we aim to analyze the whole inner heliospheric context between two eruptive flares that took place in late 2020, that is, the M4.4 flare of 29 November and the C7.4 flare of 7 December. This period is especially interesting because the STEREO‐A spacecraft was located ∼60° east of the Sun–Earth line, giving us the opportunity to test the capabilities of “predictions at 360°” using remote‐sensing observations from the Lagrange L1 and L5 points as input. We simulate the CMEs that were ejected during our period of interest and the SEPs accelerated by their shocks using the WSA–Enlil–SEPMOD modeling chain and four sets of input parameters, forming a “mini‐ensemble.” We validate our results using in situ observations at six locations, including Earth and Mars. We find that, despite some limitations arising from the models' architecture and assumptions, CMEs and shock‐accelerated SEPs can be reasonably studied and forecast in real time at least out to several tens of degrees away from the eruption site using the prediction tools employed here.https://doi.org/10.1029/2021SW002993coronal mass ejectionssolar energetic particlesspace weather forecastsMHD modelsinner heliospheresolar wind |
| spellingShingle | Erika Palmerio Christina O. Lee M. Leila Mays Janet G. Luhmann David Lario Beatriz Sánchez‐Cano Ian G. Richardson Rami Vainio Michael L. Stevens Christina M. S. Cohen Konrad Steinvall Christian Möstl Andreas J. Weiss Teresa Nieves‐Chinchilla Yan Li Davin E. Larson Daniel Heyner Stuart D. Bale Antoinette B. Galvin Mats Holmström Yuri V. Khotyaintsev Milan Maksimovic Igor G. Mitrofanov CMEs and SEPs During November–December 2020: A Challenge for Real‐Time Space Weather Forecasting Space Weather coronal mass ejections solar energetic particles space weather forecasts MHD models inner heliosphere solar wind |
| title | CMEs and SEPs During November–December 2020: A Challenge for Real‐Time Space Weather Forecasting |
| title_full | CMEs and SEPs During November–December 2020: A Challenge for Real‐Time Space Weather Forecasting |
| title_fullStr | CMEs and SEPs During November–December 2020: A Challenge for Real‐Time Space Weather Forecasting |
| title_full_unstemmed | CMEs and SEPs During November–December 2020: A Challenge for Real‐Time Space Weather Forecasting |
| title_short | CMEs and SEPs During November–December 2020: A Challenge for Real‐Time Space Weather Forecasting |
| title_sort | cmes and seps during november december 2020 a challenge for real time space weather forecasting |
| topic | coronal mass ejections solar energetic particles space weather forecasts MHD models inner heliosphere solar wind |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2021SW002993 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT erikapalmerio cmesandsepsduringnovemberdecember2020achallengeforrealtimespaceweatherforecasting AT christinaolee cmesandsepsduringnovemberdecember2020achallengeforrealtimespaceweatherforecasting AT mleilamays cmesandsepsduringnovemberdecember2020achallengeforrealtimespaceweatherforecasting AT janetgluhmann cmesandsepsduringnovemberdecember2020achallengeforrealtimespaceweatherforecasting AT davidlario cmesandsepsduringnovemberdecember2020achallengeforrealtimespaceweatherforecasting AT beatrizsanchezcano cmesandsepsduringnovemberdecember2020achallengeforrealtimespaceweatherforecasting AT iangrichardson cmesandsepsduringnovemberdecember2020achallengeforrealtimespaceweatherforecasting AT ramivainio cmesandsepsduringnovemberdecember2020achallengeforrealtimespaceweatherforecasting AT michaellstevens cmesandsepsduringnovemberdecember2020achallengeforrealtimespaceweatherforecasting AT christinamscohen cmesandsepsduringnovemberdecember2020achallengeforrealtimespaceweatherforecasting AT konradsteinvall cmesandsepsduringnovemberdecember2020achallengeforrealtimespaceweatherforecasting AT christianmostl cmesandsepsduringnovemberdecember2020achallengeforrealtimespaceweatherforecasting AT andreasjweiss cmesandsepsduringnovemberdecember2020achallengeforrealtimespaceweatherforecasting AT teresanieveschinchilla cmesandsepsduringnovemberdecember2020achallengeforrealtimespaceweatherforecasting AT yanli cmesandsepsduringnovemberdecember2020achallengeforrealtimespaceweatherforecasting AT davinelarson cmesandsepsduringnovemberdecember2020achallengeforrealtimespaceweatherforecasting AT danielheyner cmesandsepsduringnovemberdecember2020achallengeforrealtimespaceweatherforecasting AT stuartdbale cmesandsepsduringnovemberdecember2020achallengeforrealtimespaceweatherforecasting AT antoinettebgalvin cmesandsepsduringnovemberdecember2020achallengeforrealtimespaceweatherforecasting AT matsholmstrom cmesandsepsduringnovemberdecember2020achallengeforrealtimespaceweatherforecasting AT yurivkhotyaintsev cmesandsepsduringnovemberdecember2020achallengeforrealtimespaceweatherforecasting AT milanmaksimovic cmesandsepsduringnovemberdecember2020achallengeforrealtimespaceweatherforecasting AT igorgmitrofanov cmesandsepsduringnovemberdecember2020achallengeforrealtimespaceweatherforecasting |