SARIMA-Orthogonal Polynomial Curve Fitting Model for Medium-Term Load Forecasting
Seasonal component has been a key factor in time series modeling for medium-term electric load forecasting. In this paper, a seasonal-ARIMA model is developed, but the parameters of the SAR and the SMA turn out to be quite nonsignificant in most cases during the model order selection. To address thi...
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| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Wiley
2016-01-01
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| Series: | Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2016/9649682 |
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| _version_ | 1850163784105066496 |
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| author | Herui Cui Pengbang Wei Yupei Mu Xu Peng |
| author_facet | Herui Cui Pengbang Wei Yupei Mu Xu Peng |
| author_sort | Herui Cui |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Seasonal component has been a key factor in time series modeling for medium-term electric load forecasting. In this paper, a seasonal-ARIMA model is developed, but the parameters of the SAR and the SMA turn out to be quite nonsignificant in most cases during the model order selection. To address this issue, the hybrid time series model based on the HP filter is utilized to extract the spectrum sequences with different frequencies and analyze interactions among various factors. Finally, an integrative forecast is made for the electricity consumption from January to November in 2014. The empirical results demonstrate that the method with HP filter could reduce the relative error caused by the interaction between the trend component and the seasonal component. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-ece3679aed4748d68709f191185a98f5 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 1026-0226 1607-887X |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2016-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society |
| spelling | doaj-art-ece3679aed4748d68709f191185a98f52025-08-20T02:22:09ZengWileyDiscrete Dynamics in Nature and Society1026-02261607-887X2016-01-01201610.1155/2016/96496829649682SARIMA-Orthogonal Polynomial Curve Fitting Model for Medium-Term Load ForecastingHerui Cui0Pengbang Wei1Yupei Mu2Xu Peng3School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Baoding 071003, ChinaSchool of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Baoding 071003, ChinaSchool of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Baoding 071003, ChinaSchool of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Baoding 071003, ChinaSeasonal component has been a key factor in time series modeling for medium-term electric load forecasting. In this paper, a seasonal-ARIMA model is developed, but the parameters of the SAR and the SMA turn out to be quite nonsignificant in most cases during the model order selection. To address this issue, the hybrid time series model based on the HP filter is utilized to extract the spectrum sequences with different frequencies and analyze interactions among various factors. Finally, an integrative forecast is made for the electricity consumption from January to November in 2014. The empirical results demonstrate that the method with HP filter could reduce the relative error caused by the interaction between the trend component and the seasonal component.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2016/9649682 |
| spellingShingle | Herui Cui Pengbang Wei Yupei Mu Xu Peng SARIMA-Orthogonal Polynomial Curve Fitting Model for Medium-Term Load Forecasting Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society |
| title | SARIMA-Orthogonal Polynomial Curve Fitting Model for Medium-Term Load Forecasting |
| title_full | SARIMA-Orthogonal Polynomial Curve Fitting Model for Medium-Term Load Forecasting |
| title_fullStr | SARIMA-Orthogonal Polynomial Curve Fitting Model for Medium-Term Load Forecasting |
| title_full_unstemmed | SARIMA-Orthogonal Polynomial Curve Fitting Model for Medium-Term Load Forecasting |
| title_short | SARIMA-Orthogonal Polynomial Curve Fitting Model for Medium-Term Load Forecasting |
| title_sort | sarima orthogonal polynomial curve fitting model for medium term load forecasting |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2016/9649682 |
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