Climate change attribution of Typhoon Haiyan with the Imperial College Storm Model
Abstract It is difficult to model changes in the likelihood of tropical cyclones under climate change to date. We do this, for the first time, by a applying a stochastic tropical cyclone event set generated by the Imperial College Storm Model to attribute the contribution of climate change to the ca...
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| Format: | Article |
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Wiley
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Atmospheric Science Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1285 |
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| author | Nathan Sparks Ralf Toumi |
| author_facet | Nathan Sparks Ralf Toumi |
| author_sort | Nathan Sparks |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract It is difficult to model changes in the likelihood of tropical cyclones under climate change to date. We do this, for the first time, by a applying a stochastic tropical cyclone event set generated by the Imperial College Storm Model to attribute the contribution of climate change to the case of Typhoon Haiyan in 2013. Compared to a pre‐industrial baseline, we estimate that a typhoon with a landfall maximum wind speed like Haiyan was larger by +3.5 m/s. This is in good agreement with previous full physics numerical model estimates. A Haiyan type of event has a current return period of 850 years, and the fractional attributable risk due to climate change is 98%. Without climate change, this event was very unlikely. The type of information available from the IRIS model could inform subsidizing of catastrophe bond yield in the context of the loss and damage fund. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-ecdfc2fed3774bf3ae0e4f73e7a73911 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1530-261X |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Atmospheric Science Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-ecdfc2fed3774bf3ae0e4f73e7a739112025-01-29T09:47:21ZengWileyAtmospheric Science Letters1530-261X2025-01-01261n/an/a10.1002/asl.1285Climate change attribution of Typhoon Haiyan with the Imperial College Storm ModelNathan Sparks0Ralf Toumi1Department of Physics Imperial College London London UKDepartment of Physics Imperial College London London UKAbstract It is difficult to model changes in the likelihood of tropical cyclones under climate change to date. We do this, for the first time, by a applying a stochastic tropical cyclone event set generated by the Imperial College Storm Model to attribute the contribution of climate change to the case of Typhoon Haiyan in 2013. Compared to a pre‐industrial baseline, we estimate that a typhoon with a landfall maximum wind speed like Haiyan was larger by +3.5 m/s. This is in good agreement with previous full physics numerical model estimates. A Haiyan type of event has a current return period of 850 years, and the fractional attributable risk due to climate change is 98%. Without climate change, this event was very unlikely. The type of information available from the IRIS model could inform subsidizing of catastrophe bond yield in the context of the loss and damage fund.https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1285change and impactsclimateclimate variabilitygeographic/climatic zonephysical phenomenonscale |
| spellingShingle | Nathan Sparks Ralf Toumi Climate change attribution of Typhoon Haiyan with the Imperial College Storm Model Atmospheric Science Letters change and impacts climate climate variability geographic/climatic zone physical phenomenon scale |
| title | Climate change attribution of Typhoon Haiyan with the Imperial College Storm Model |
| title_full | Climate change attribution of Typhoon Haiyan with the Imperial College Storm Model |
| title_fullStr | Climate change attribution of Typhoon Haiyan with the Imperial College Storm Model |
| title_full_unstemmed | Climate change attribution of Typhoon Haiyan with the Imperial College Storm Model |
| title_short | Climate change attribution of Typhoon Haiyan with the Imperial College Storm Model |
| title_sort | climate change attribution of typhoon haiyan with the imperial college storm model |
| topic | change and impacts climate climate variability geographic/climatic zone physical phenomenon scale |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1285 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT nathansparks climatechangeattributionoftyphoonhaiyanwiththeimperialcollegestormmodel AT ralftoumi climatechangeattributionoftyphoonhaiyanwiththeimperialcollegestormmodel |