Rethinking scenario building for sustainable futures: mobilizing conscientização, social learning and knowledge co-production
Scenario building is a powerful tool for evaluating drivers of environmental change and assessing alternative socioecological pathways, helping integrate science-based information into decision-making. Nonetheless, this potential has not been fully embraced by scientists and decision-makers, in part...
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Taylor & Francis Group
2025-12-01
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| Series: | Ecosystems and People |
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| Online Access: | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/26395916.2025.2507247 |
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| author | Danilo Borja Jan Daněk Julia C. Assis Antonella Gorosábel Carolyn Lundquist Isabel Rosa Fabio Rubio Scarano Nino Tavares Amazonas Silas C. Principe Rob Alkemade Adnan Arshad Sandra Benavides-Gordillo Rafael Cavalcanti Lembi Tássia Rayane Ferreira Chagas Diana Isabel Clavijo Rojas Lara Cornejo-Denman Viviane Dib Simon Ferrier Edberto Moura Lima Luis Filipe Lopes Matheus Camargo Silva Mancini Juan Andrés Martínez-Lanfranco Wladimir Moya Julia Niemeyer Unai Pascual Alice Ramos de Moraes Mercy Funke Salami Carla Rivera Rebella Fábio H. C. Sanches Priyanka Sarkar Juliana Siqueira-Gay Raísa Romênia Silva Vieira Catalina Zuluaga Rodríguez Carlos Alfredo Joly Rafael C. Borges |
| author_facet | Danilo Borja Jan Daněk Julia C. Assis Antonella Gorosábel Carolyn Lundquist Isabel Rosa Fabio Rubio Scarano Nino Tavares Amazonas Silas C. Principe Rob Alkemade Adnan Arshad Sandra Benavides-Gordillo Rafael Cavalcanti Lembi Tássia Rayane Ferreira Chagas Diana Isabel Clavijo Rojas Lara Cornejo-Denman Viviane Dib Simon Ferrier Edberto Moura Lima Luis Filipe Lopes Matheus Camargo Silva Mancini Juan Andrés Martínez-Lanfranco Wladimir Moya Julia Niemeyer Unai Pascual Alice Ramos de Moraes Mercy Funke Salami Carla Rivera Rebella Fábio H. C. Sanches Priyanka Sarkar Juliana Siqueira-Gay Raísa Romênia Silva Vieira Catalina Zuluaga Rodríguez Carlos Alfredo Joly Rafael C. Borges |
| author_sort | Danilo Borja |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Scenario building is a powerful tool for evaluating drivers of environmental change and assessing alternative socioecological pathways, helping integrate science-based information into decision-making. Nonetheless, this potential has not been fully embraced by scientists and decision-makers, in part owing to limitations of current scenario frameworks at representing the diversity of values for nature and potential transformative changes to bend the biodiversity loss curve. There is still a need to further develop scientists’ capacities to include a transdisciplinary perspective in scenario building to address the drivers of transformative change. This paper addressesthese needs by reflecting on the role of scientists engaged in scenario building in the construction of sustainable futures through the lens of three key concepts: social learning, knowledge co-production and conscientização (a Portuguese term meaning to build sociopolitical awareness and take action). Drawing on a survey of participants of a Scenario Building School and a literature review, we suggest that scientists require capacity building to leverage these concepts together for the construction of transformative futures. This includes addressing power imbalances, improving inclusive and transdisciplinary participatory methods, reaching consensus and promoting action. We recommend that scientists engaged in scenario building focus on fostering transformative changes, challenging mainstream storylines, embracing diversity and addressing inequalities to pursue sustainable futures. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-ecb5a4d3e8a9415292945c965d1d4c02 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2639-5908 2639-5916 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-12-01 |
| publisher | Taylor & Francis Group |
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| series | Ecosystems and People |
| spelling | doaj-art-ecb5a4d3e8a9415292945c965d1d4c022025-08-20T03:16:16ZengTaylor & Francis GroupEcosystems and People2639-59082639-59162025-12-0121110.1080/26395916.2025.2507247Rethinking scenario building for sustainable futures: mobilizing conscientização, social learning and knowledge co-productionDanilo Borja0Jan Daněk1Julia C. Assis2Antonella Gorosábel3Carolyn Lundquist4Isabel Rosa5Fabio Rubio Scarano6Nino Tavares Amazonas7Silas C. Principe8Rob Alkemade9Adnan Arshad10Sandra Benavides-Gordillo11Rafael Cavalcanti Lembi12Tássia Rayane Ferreira Chagas13Diana Isabel Clavijo Rojas14Lara Cornejo-Denman15Viviane Dib16Simon Ferrier17Edberto Moura Lima18Luis Filipe Lopes19Matheus Camargo Silva Mancini20Juan Andrés Martínez-Lanfranco21Wladimir Moya22Julia Niemeyer23Unai Pascual24Alice Ramos de Moraes25Mercy Funke Salami26Carla Rivera Rebella27Fábio H. C. Sanches28Priyanka Sarkar29Juliana Siqueira-Gay30Raísa Romênia Silva Vieira31Catalina Zuluaga Rodríguez32Carlos Alfredo Joly33Rafael C. Borges34Department of Geography, University of Calgary, Calgary, CanadaGlobal Change Research Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Brno, Czech RepublicLandscape Architecture and Spatial Planning Group, Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen, The NetherlandsDepartamento de Recursos Naturales y Gestión Ambiental, Instituto de Innovación para la Producción Agropecuaria y el Desarrollo Sostenible (IPADS) Balcarce, INTA-CONICET, Centro Regional Buenos Aires Sur, Estación Experimental Agropecuaria Balcarce, CONICET, Balcarce, ArgentinaSchool of Environment, University of Auckland, Science Centre, Auckland, New ZealandSchool of Natural Sciences, Bangor University, Bangor, UKDepto de Ecologia, CCS, IB, Bloco A, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, BrasilBotany Department, Plant Ecophysiology Laboratory, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Biology Institute, Riode Janeiro, BrazilLaboratorio de Biologia Recifal, Instituto Oceanográfico, Universidade de São Paulo, SãoPaulo, BrasilDepartment of Global Sustainability, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, The NetherlandsDepartment of Agricultural Meteorology, College of Resources and Environmental Sciences of China Agricultural University Beijing, ChinaLaboratório de Interações Multitróficas, Instituto de Biologia, Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Campinas, BrasilUniversidade Estadual de Campinas (Unicamp), Instituto de Biologia, R. Monteiro Lobato, Campinas, BrasilDepartamento de Ecologia e Conservação, Instituto de Ciências Naturais, Universidade Federal de Lavras, Lavras, BrasilResearch Cluster in Environmental Policy, School of Engineering, University of São Paulo, SãoCarlos, BrazilDepartamento de Investigaciones Científicas y Tecnológicas, Universidad de Sonora, Hermosillo, Sonora, MexicoDepartment of Restoration and Biodiversity Conservation, International Institute for Sustainability, Riode Janeiro, BrazilDepartment of Land and Water, CSIRO Land and Water, Canberra ACT, AustraliaDepartment of Agricultural and Environmental Science, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM), Santa Maria, BrasilCentre for Applied Ecology “Prof. Baeta Neves” (CEABN-InBIO), School of Agriculture, University of Lisbon, Lisbon, PortugalDepartamento de Ecologia e Conservação, Instituto de Ciências Naturais, Universidade Federal de Lavras, Lavras, BrasilDepartment of Biological Sciences, Centennial Centre for Interdisciplinary Science Bldg, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, CanadaLaboratorio de Ecología, Departamento de Ciencias Biológicas & Biodiversidad, Universidad de Los Lagos, Osorno, ChileGraduate Program in Ecology, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Biology Institute, Riode Janeiro, BrazilDepartment of Climate and Natural Environment, Basque Centre for Climate Change, Scientific Campus of the University of the Basque Country (UPV-EHU), Bilbao, SpainUniversidade Estadual de Campinas (Unicamp), Instituto de Biologia, R. Monteiro Lobato, Campinas, BrasilDepartment of Agricultural Economics and Farm Management, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Ilorin, Ilorin, NigeriaDepartamento de Ecologı́a, Facultad de Ciencias Biológicas, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, ChileDepartment of Marine health, Institute of Marine Science, Federal University of São Paulo (IMar/UNIFESP), Santos, BrazilDepartment of Ecology and Environmental Science, Assam University, Silchar, IndiaEscola Politécnica, University of São Paulo (USP), SãoPaulo, BrazilDepartment of Restoration and Biodiversity Conservation, International Institute for Sustainability, Riode Janeiro, BrazilDepartment of Ecology, Universidade de São Paulo, Instituto de Biociencias, SãoPaulo, BrazilUniversidade Estadual de Campinas (Unicamp), Instituto de Biologia, R. Monteiro Lobato, Campinas, BrasilDepartment of Environmental Technology, Vale Institute of Technology, Belém, BrasilScenario building is a powerful tool for evaluating drivers of environmental change and assessing alternative socioecological pathways, helping integrate science-based information into decision-making. Nonetheless, this potential has not been fully embraced by scientists and decision-makers, in part owing to limitations of current scenario frameworks at representing the diversity of values for nature and potential transformative changes to bend the biodiversity loss curve. There is still a need to further develop scientists’ capacities to include a transdisciplinary perspective in scenario building to address the drivers of transformative change. This paper addressesthese needs by reflecting on the role of scientists engaged in scenario building in the construction of sustainable futures through the lens of three key concepts: social learning, knowledge co-production and conscientização (a Portuguese term meaning to build sociopolitical awareness and take action). Drawing on a survey of participants of a Scenario Building School and a literature review, we suggest that scientists require capacity building to leverage these concepts together for the construction of transformative futures. This includes addressing power imbalances, improving inclusive and transdisciplinary participatory methods, reaching consensus and promoting action. We recommend that scientists engaged in scenario building focus on fostering transformative changes, challenging mainstream storylines, embracing diversity and addressing inequalities to pursue sustainable futures.https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/26395916.2025.2507247Zuzana V. HarmackovaEcosystem servicesnature’s contributions to peoplebiodiversitycapacity buildingmodeling |
| spellingShingle | Danilo Borja Jan Daněk Julia C. Assis Antonella Gorosábel Carolyn Lundquist Isabel Rosa Fabio Rubio Scarano Nino Tavares Amazonas Silas C. Principe Rob Alkemade Adnan Arshad Sandra Benavides-Gordillo Rafael Cavalcanti Lembi Tássia Rayane Ferreira Chagas Diana Isabel Clavijo Rojas Lara Cornejo-Denman Viviane Dib Simon Ferrier Edberto Moura Lima Luis Filipe Lopes Matheus Camargo Silva Mancini Juan Andrés Martínez-Lanfranco Wladimir Moya Julia Niemeyer Unai Pascual Alice Ramos de Moraes Mercy Funke Salami Carla Rivera Rebella Fábio H. C. Sanches Priyanka Sarkar Juliana Siqueira-Gay Raísa Romênia Silva Vieira Catalina Zuluaga Rodríguez Carlos Alfredo Joly Rafael C. Borges Rethinking scenario building for sustainable futures: mobilizing conscientização, social learning and knowledge co-production Ecosystems and People Zuzana V. Harmackova Ecosystem services nature’s contributions to people biodiversity capacity building modeling |
| title | Rethinking scenario building for sustainable futures: mobilizing conscientização, social learning and knowledge co-production |
| title_full | Rethinking scenario building for sustainable futures: mobilizing conscientização, social learning and knowledge co-production |
| title_fullStr | Rethinking scenario building for sustainable futures: mobilizing conscientização, social learning and knowledge co-production |
| title_full_unstemmed | Rethinking scenario building for sustainable futures: mobilizing conscientização, social learning and knowledge co-production |
| title_short | Rethinking scenario building for sustainable futures: mobilizing conscientização, social learning and knowledge co-production |
| title_sort | rethinking scenario building for sustainable futures mobilizing conscientizacao social learning and knowledge co production |
| topic | Zuzana V. Harmackova Ecosystem services nature’s contributions to people biodiversity capacity building modeling |
| url | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/26395916.2025.2507247 |
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