Predictive analysis of all-cause mortality of previously untreated pulmonary tuberculosis patients complicated by hypertension

ObjectiveTo investigate the risk factors for all-cause mortality of previously untreated pulmonary tuberculosis patients complicated by hypertension and construct a predictive model.MethodsWe retrospectively analyzed the clinical data of inpatients with previously untreated pulmonary tuberculosis co...

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Main Authors: Anhua Cao, You Nie, Zhun Zhong, Yi Pei, Ping Deng, Hebin Xie, Yiping Leng
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Frontiers Media S.A. 2025-08-01
Series:Frontiers in Cellular and Infection Microbiology
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Online Access:https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fcimb.2025.1574824/full
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author Anhua Cao
You Nie
Zhun Zhong
Yi Pei
Yi Pei
Ping Deng
Hebin Xie
Yiping Leng
Yiping Leng
author_facet Anhua Cao
You Nie
Zhun Zhong
Yi Pei
Yi Pei
Ping Deng
Hebin Xie
Yiping Leng
Yiping Leng
author_sort Anhua Cao
collection DOAJ
description ObjectiveTo investigate the risk factors for all-cause mortality of previously untreated pulmonary tuberculosis patients complicated by hypertension and construct a predictive model.MethodsWe retrospectively analyzed the clinical data of inpatients with previously untreated pulmonary tuberculosis complicated by hypertension from 2019 to 2021 in Changsha Central Hospital. Patients’ survival status and cardiovascular events were collected through telephone follow-up. LASSO regression was utilized to screen predictive variables, and binary logistic regression identified mortality risk factors. A predictive nomogram model was developed using R software, and its precision and reliability were verified.ResultsAmong the 1,014 patients, there were 100 (9.86%) deaths and 82 (8.09%) cardiovascular events. LASSO regression screened out 13 predictive variables. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that smoking history, sputum bacteriology, pleural effusion, coronary heart disease, and chronic kidney disease were independent risk factors. Based on the training set data, a nomogram prognostic model was developed, showing an AUC of 0.712 (95% CI: 0.777-0.847), with 50.0% sensitivity and 84.3% specificity. The model’s fit was confirmed through internal and external validations.ConclusionThe prediction model constructed in this study has high predictive ability and satisfactory clinical efficacy, and can provide an effective individualized prediction tool for assessing all-cause mortality risk in patients with previously untreated pulmonary tuberculosis complicated by hypertension.
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spelling doaj-art-ec586682d3214e5bbbec5d68d2ac4e5c2025-08-20T03:41:22ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Cellular and Infection Microbiology2235-29882025-08-011510.3389/fcimb.2025.15748241574824Predictive analysis of all-cause mortality of previously untreated pulmonary tuberculosis patients complicated by hypertensionAnhua Cao0You Nie1Zhun Zhong2Yi Pei3Yi Pei4Ping Deng5Hebin Xie6Yiping Leng7Yiping Leng8The Affiliated Changsha Central Hospital, Department of Cardiology, Hengyang Medical School, University of South China, Changsha, Hunan, ChinaThe Affiliated Changsha Central Hospital, Department of Laboratory Medicine, Hengyang Medical School, University of South China, Changsha, Hunan, ChinaThe Affiliated Changsha Central Hospital, Center of Tuberculosis Diagnosis and Treatment, Hengyang Medical School, University of South China, Changsha, Hunan, ChinaThe Affiliated Changsha Central Hospital, Center of Tuberculosis Diagnosis and Treatment, Hengyang Medical School, University of South China, Changsha, Hunan, ChinaThe Affiliated Changsha Central Hospital, Technology Demonstration Base for Tuberculosis Diagnosis and Treatment in Hunan Province, University of South China, Changsha, Changsha, Hunan, ChinaThe Affiliated Changsha Central Hospital, Department of Cardiology, Hengyang Medical School, University of South China, Changsha, Hunan, ChinaThe Affiliated Changsha Central Hospital, Department of Science and Education, Hengyang Medical School, University of South China, Changsha, Hunan, ChinaThe Affiliated Changsha Central Hospital, Changsha Tuberculosis Research Institute, Hengyang Medical School, University of South China, Changsha, Hunan, ChinaThe Affiliated Changsha Central Hospital, Changsha Technology Innovation Center for Tuberculosis Diagnosis and Treatment, University of South China, Changsha, Hunan, ChinaObjectiveTo investigate the risk factors for all-cause mortality of previously untreated pulmonary tuberculosis patients complicated by hypertension and construct a predictive model.MethodsWe retrospectively analyzed the clinical data of inpatients with previously untreated pulmonary tuberculosis complicated by hypertension from 2019 to 2021 in Changsha Central Hospital. Patients’ survival status and cardiovascular events were collected through telephone follow-up. LASSO regression was utilized to screen predictive variables, and binary logistic regression identified mortality risk factors. A predictive nomogram model was developed using R software, and its precision and reliability were verified.ResultsAmong the 1,014 patients, there were 100 (9.86%) deaths and 82 (8.09%) cardiovascular events. LASSO regression screened out 13 predictive variables. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that smoking history, sputum bacteriology, pleural effusion, coronary heart disease, and chronic kidney disease were independent risk factors. Based on the training set data, a nomogram prognostic model was developed, showing an AUC of 0.712 (95% CI: 0.777-0.847), with 50.0% sensitivity and 84.3% specificity. The model’s fit was confirmed through internal and external validations.ConclusionThe prediction model constructed in this study has high predictive ability and satisfactory clinical efficacy, and can provide an effective individualized prediction tool for assessing all-cause mortality risk in patients with previously untreated pulmonary tuberculosis complicated by hypertension.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fcimb.2025.1574824/fullpreviously untreated pulmonary tuberculosishypertensionmortality raterisk factorsprediction model
spellingShingle Anhua Cao
You Nie
Zhun Zhong
Yi Pei
Yi Pei
Ping Deng
Hebin Xie
Yiping Leng
Yiping Leng
Predictive analysis of all-cause mortality of previously untreated pulmonary tuberculosis patients complicated by hypertension
Frontiers in Cellular and Infection Microbiology
previously untreated pulmonary tuberculosis
hypertension
mortality rate
risk factors
prediction model
title Predictive analysis of all-cause mortality of previously untreated pulmonary tuberculosis patients complicated by hypertension
title_full Predictive analysis of all-cause mortality of previously untreated pulmonary tuberculosis patients complicated by hypertension
title_fullStr Predictive analysis of all-cause mortality of previously untreated pulmonary tuberculosis patients complicated by hypertension
title_full_unstemmed Predictive analysis of all-cause mortality of previously untreated pulmonary tuberculosis patients complicated by hypertension
title_short Predictive analysis of all-cause mortality of previously untreated pulmonary tuberculosis patients complicated by hypertension
title_sort predictive analysis of all cause mortality of previously untreated pulmonary tuberculosis patients complicated by hypertension
topic previously untreated pulmonary tuberculosis
hypertension
mortality rate
risk factors
prediction model
url https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fcimb.2025.1574824/full
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