Multifractal Analysis for Evaluating the Representation of Clouds in Global Kilometer‐Scale Models
Abstract Clouds are one of the largest sources of uncertainty in climate predictions. Global km‐scale models need to simulate clouds and precipitation accurately to predict future climates. To isolate issues in their representation of clouds, models need to be thoroughly evaluated with observations....
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| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2024-10-01
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| Series: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL110124 |
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| _version_ | 1850195632542711808 |
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| author | Lilli J. Freischem Philipp Weiss Hannah M. Christensen Philip Stier |
| author_facet | Lilli J. Freischem Philipp Weiss Hannah M. Christensen Philip Stier |
| author_sort | Lilli J. Freischem |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Clouds are one of the largest sources of uncertainty in climate predictions. Global km‐scale models need to simulate clouds and precipitation accurately to predict future climates. To isolate issues in their representation of clouds, models need to be thoroughly evaluated with observations. Here, we introduce multifractal analysis as a method for evaluating km‐scale simulations. We apply it to outgoing longwave radiation fields to investigate structural differences between observed and simulated anvil clouds. We compute fractal parameters which compactly characterize the scaling behavior of clouds and can be compared across simulations and observations. We use this method to evaluate the nextGEMS ICON simulations via comparison with observations from the geostationary satellite GOES‐16. We find that multifractal scaling exponents in the ICON model are significantly lower than in observations. We conclude that too much variability is contained in the small scales (<100km) leading to less organized convection and smaller, isolated anvils. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-ec524df7883a473dba56ad32cdddb0f9 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 0094-8276 1944-8007 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-10-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geophysical Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-ec524df7883a473dba56ad32cdddb0f92025-08-20T02:13:43ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072024-10-015120n/an/a10.1029/2024GL110124Multifractal Analysis for Evaluating the Representation of Clouds in Global Kilometer‐Scale ModelsLilli J. Freischem0Philipp Weiss1Hannah M. Christensen2Philip Stier3Department of Physics University of Oxford Oxford UKDepartment of Physics University of Oxford Oxford UKDepartment of Physics University of Oxford Oxford UKDepartment of Physics University of Oxford Oxford UKAbstract Clouds are one of the largest sources of uncertainty in climate predictions. Global km‐scale models need to simulate clouds and precipitation accurately to predict future climates. To isolate issues in their representation of clouds, models need to be thoroughly evaluated with observations. Here, we introduce multifractal analysis as a method for evaluating km‐scale simulations. We apply it to outgoing longwave radiation fields to investigate structural differences between observed and simulated anvil clouds. We compute fractal parameters which compactly characterize the scaling behavior of clouds and can be compared across simulations and observations. We use this method to evaluate the nextGEMS ICON simulations via comparison with observations from the geostationary satellite GOES‐16. We find that multifractal scaling exponents in the ICON model are significantly lower than in observations. We conclude that too much variability is contained in the small scales (<100km) leading to less organized convection and smaller, isolated anvils.https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL110124fractalsglobal km‐scale modelsdeep convectionconvective organizationmodel evaluation |
| spellingShingle | Lilli J. Freischem Philipp Weiss Hannah M. Christensen Philip Stier Multifractal Analysis for Evaluating the Representation of Clouds in Global Kilometer‐Scale Models Geophysical Research Letters fractals global km‐scale models deep convection convective organization model evaluation |
| title | Multifractal Analysis for Evaluating the Representation of Clouds in Global Kilometer‐Scale Models |
| title_full | Multifractal Analysis for Evaluating the Representation of Clouds in Global Kilometer‐Scale Models |
| title_fullStr | Multifractal Analysis for Evaluating the Representation of Clouds in Global Kilometer‐Scale Models |
| title_full_unstemmed | Multifractal Analysis for Evaluating the Representation of Clouds in Global Kilometer‐Scale Models |
| title_short | Multifractal Analysis for Evaluating the Representation of Clouds in Global Kilometer‐Scale Models |
| title_sort | multifractal analysis for evaluating the representation of clouds in global kilometer scale models |
| topic | fractals global km‐scale models deep convection convective organization model evaluation |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL110124 |
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