Driving factors of fragmentation in urban landscapes: Local contributions, spatial relationships, and causal effects

Rapid urbanization significantly alters landscape patterns, leading to fragmentation with implications for biodiversity, ecosystem function, and human well-being. Understanding the drivers of fragmentation is crucial for developing sustainable urban planning strategies. This study investigates the s...

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Main Authors: Simin Jiang, Fei Feng, Xinna Zhang, Chengyang Xu, Baoquan Jia, Raffaele Lafortezza
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Elsevier 2025-05-01
Series:Ecological Indicators
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Online Access:http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X2500384X
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author Simin Jiang
Fei Feng
Xinna Zhang
Chengyang Xu
Baoquan Jia
Raffaele Lafortezza
author_facet Simin Jiang
Fei Feng
Xinna Zhang
Chengyang Xu
Baoquan Jia
Raffaele Lafortezza
author_sort Simin Jiang
collection DOAJ
description Rapid urbanization significantly alters landscape patterns, leading to fragmentation with implications for biodiversity, ecosystem function, and human well-being. Understanding the drivers of fragmentation is crucial for developing sustainable urban planning strategies. This study investigates the spatial patterns and driving mechanisms of landscape fragmentation in Nanchang, China, a rapidly urbanizing city. We analyze landscape fragmentation patterns for 2000, 2010, and 2022 and assess the influence of nine natural and anthropogenic factors using a geographically weighted random forest (GWRF) model, spatial autocorrelation analysis, and structural equation modeling (SEM). Our results reveal significant spatial heterogeneity in landscape fragmentation, with high-fragmentation hotspots concentrated in the southeastern and central regions. The intensity of land cover change and human activity emerge as the dominant human factors influencing fragmentation, exhibiting strong spatial correlations and causal effects. land cover change intensity and human activity intensity account for 44.58 % and 34.78 % of the highest ranking local feature importance, respectively. The human footprint also demonstrates a statistically significant positive spatial correlation with fragmentation (mean Moran’s I = 0.5304). Furthermore, land cover change intensity exerts a direct positive influence on landscape fragmentation, as indicated by an average standardized path coefficient of 0.41. Slope and human footprint also play important roles, primarily through indirect effects (mean value above 0.3 and 0.35, respectively). The influence of impervious surface expansion intensity showed an inverted “U” shape over time in spatial correlation and causal effect, suggesting that while initial urban expansion increases fragmentation, advanced urbanization and green space restoration can mitigate these effects.
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spelling doaj-art-ec2d267e0cff435cab611ed7892e4f102025-08-20T02:20:15ZengElsevierEcological Indicators1470-160X2025-05-0117411345410.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113454Driving factors of fragmentation in urban landscapes: Local contributions, spatial relationships, and causal effectsSimin Jiang0Fei Feng1Xinna Zhang2Chengyang Xu3Baoquan Jia4Raffaele Lafortezza5Research Centre of Urban Forestry, Key Laboratory for Silviculture and Forest Ecosystem of State Forestry and Grassland Administration, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, ChinaResearch Centre of Urban Forestry, Key Laboratory for Silviculture and Forest Ecosystem of State Forestry and Grassland Administration, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, ChinaResearch Centre of Urban Forestry, Key Laboratory for Silviculture and Forest Ecosystem of State Forestry and Grassland Administration, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, ChinaResearch Centre of Urban Forestry, Key Laboratory for Silviculture and Forest Ecosystem of State Forestry and Grassland Administration, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, ChinaResearch Institute of Forestry, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing 100091, ChinaDepartment of Soil, Plant and Food Sciences, University of Bari Aldo Moro, Via Amendola 165/A, 70126 Bari, Italy; Research Centre of Urban Forestry, Key Laboratory for Silviculture and Forest Ecosystem of State Forestry and Grassland Administration, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China; Corresponding author at: Department of Soil, Plant and Food Sciences (Di.S.S.P.A.), University of Bari Aldo Moro, Via Amendola, 165/A 70126 Bari, Italy.Rapid urbanization significantly alters landscape patterns, leading to fragmentation with implications for biodiversity, ecosystem function, and human well-being. Understanding the drivers of fragmentation is crucial for developing sustainable urban planning strategies. This study investigates the spatial patterns and driving mechanisms of landscape fragmentation in Nanchang, China, a rapidly urbanizing city. We analyze landscape fragmentation patterns for 2000, 2010, and 2022 and assess the influence of nine natural and anthropogenic factors using a geographically weighted random forest (GWRF) model, spatial autocorrelation analysis, and structural equation modeling (SEM). Our results reveal significant spatial heterogeneity in landscape fragmentation, with high-fragmentation hotspots concentrated in the southeastern and central regions. The intensity of land cover change and human activity emerge as the dominant human factors influencing fragmentation, exhibiting strong spatial correlations and causal effects. land cover change intensity and human activity intensity account for 44.58 % and 34.78 % of the highest ranking local feature importance, respectively. The human footprint also demonstrates a statistically significant positive spatial correlation with fragmentation (mean Moran’s I = 0.5304). Furthermore, land cover change intensity exerts a direct positive influence on landscape fragmentation, as indicated by an average standardized path coefficient of 0.41. Slope and human footprint also play important roles, primarily through indirect effects (mean value above 0.3 and 0.35, respectively). The influence of impervious surface expansion intensity showed an inverted “U” shape over time in spatial correlation and causal effect, suggesting that while initial urban expansion increases fragmentation, advanced urbanization and green space restoration can mitigate these effects.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X2500384XLandscape fragmentationUrbanizationDriving factorsCausal effects
spellingShingle Simin Jiang
Fei Feng
Xinna Zhang
Chengyang Xu
Baoquan Jia
Raffaele Lafortezza
Driving factors of fragmentation in urban landscapes: Local contributions, spatial relationships, and causal effects
Ecological Indicators
Landscape fragmentation
Urbanization
Driving factors
Causal effects
title Driving factors of fragmentation in urban landscapes: Local contributions, spatial relationships, and causal effects
title_full Driving factors of fragmentation in urban landscapes: Local contributions, spatial relationships, and causal effects
title_fullStr Driving factors of fragmentation in urban landscapes: Local contributions, spatial relationships, and causal effects
title_full_unstemmed Driving factors of fragmentation in urban landscapes: Local contributions, spatial relationships, and causal effects
title_short Driving factors of fragmentation in urban landscapes: Local contributions, spatial relationships, and causal effects
title_sort driving factors of fragmentation in urban landscapes local contributions spatial relationships and causal effects
topic Landscape fragmentation
Urbanization
Driving factors
Causal effects
url http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X2500384X
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