Dual-tracer constraints on the inverse Gaussian transit time distribution improve the estimation of water mass ages and their temporal trends in the tropical thermocline

<p>Quantifying the mean state and temporal change of seawater age is crucial for understanding the role of ocean circulation and its change in the climate system. One commonly used technique to estimate the water age is the inverse Gaussian transit time distribution method (IG-TTD), which appl...

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Main Authors: H. Guo, W. Koeve, A. Oschlies, Y.-C. He, T. P. Kemena, L. Gerke, I. Kriest
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Copernicus Publications 2025-07-01
Series:Ocean Science
Online Access:https://os.copernicus.org/articles/21/1167/2025/os-21-1167-2025.pdf
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author H. Guo
W. Koeve
A. Oschlies
A. Oschlies
Y.-C. He
T. P. Kemena
L. Gerke
I. Kriest
author_facet H. Guo
W. Koeve
A. Oschlies
A. Oschlies
Y.-C. He
T. P. Kemena
L. Gerke
I. Kriest
author_sort H. Guo
collection DOAJ
description <p>Quantifying the mean state and temporal change of seawater age is crucial for understanding the role of ocean circulation and its change in the climate system. One commonly used technique to estimate the water age is the inverse Gaussian transit time distribution method (IG-TTD), which applies measurements of transient abiotic tracers like chlorofluorocarbon 12 (CFC-12). Here, we use an Earth system model to evaluate how accurately the IG-TTD method infers the mean state and temporal change of true water age from 1981 to 2015 in the tropical thermocline (on isopycnal layer <span class="inline-formula"><i>σ</i><sub>0</sub>=25.5</span> kg m<span class="inline-formula"><sup>−3</sup></span>). To this end, we compared the mean age of IG-TTD (<span class="inline-formula">Γ</span>) derived from simulated CFC-12 with the model “truth”, the simulated ideal age. Results show that <span class="inline-formula">Γ</span> underestimates the ideal age of 46.0 years by up to 50 %. We suggest that this discrepancy can be attributed to imperfect assumptions about the shapes of the transit time distribution of water parcels in the tropics and the short atmospheric history of CFC-12. Moreover, when only one transient tracer (CFC-12) is available, temporal trends in <span class="inline-formula">Γ</span> might be an unreliable indicator and, due to uncertainties in the mixing ratio, may even be of opposite sign to temporal trends in the ideal age. The disparity between <span class="inline-formula">Γ</span> and ideal age temporal trends can be significantly reduced by incorporating an additional abiotic tracer with a different temporal evolution, which we show by constraining <span class="inline-formula">Γ</span> with sulfur hexafluoride (<span class="inline-formula">SF<sub>6</sub></span>) in addition to CFC-12.</p>
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issn 1812-0784
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spelling doaj-art-ea87af1cf0be43fc8d9828af1372af082025-08-20T02:41:58ZengCopernicus PublicationsOcean Science1812-07841812-07922025-07-01211167118210.5194/os-21-1167-2025Dual-tracer constraints on the inverse Gaussian transit time distribution improve the estimation of water mass ages and their temporal trends in the tropical thermoclineH. Guo0W. Koeve1A. Oschlies2A. Oschlies3Y.-C. He4T. P. Kemena5L. Gerke6I. Kriest7GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Kiel, GermanyGEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Kiel, GermanyGEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Kiel, GermanyKiel University, Kiel, GermanyNansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, NorwayGEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Kiel, GermanyGEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Kiel, GermanyGEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Kiel, Germany<p>Quantifying the mean state and temporal change of seawater age is crucial for understanding the role of ocean circulation and its change in the climate system. One commonly used technique to estimate the water age is the inverse Gaussian transit time distribution method (IG-TTD), which applies measurements of transient abiotic tracers like chlorofluorocarbon 12 (CFC-12). Here, we use an Earth system model to evaluate how accurately the IG-TTD method infers the mean state and temporal change of true water age from 1981 to 2015 in the tropical thermocline (on isopycnal layer <span class="inline-formula"><i>σ</i><sub>0</sub>=25.5</span> kg m<span class="inline-formula"><sup>−3</sup></span>). To this end, we compared the mean age of IG-TTD (<span class="inline-formula">Γ</span>) derived from simulated CFC-12 with the model “truth”, the simulated ideal age. Results show that <span class="inline-formula">Γ</span> underestimates the ideal age of 46.0 years by up to 50 %. We suggest that this discrepancy can be attributed to imperfect assumptions about the shapes of the transit time distribution of water parcels in the tropics and the short atmospheric history of CFC-12. Moreover, when only one transient tracer (CFC-12) is available, temporal trends in <span class="inline-formula">Γ</span> might be an unreliable indicator and, due to uncertainties in the mixing ratio, may even be of opposite sign to temporal trends in the ideal age. The disparity between <span class="inline-formula">Γ</span> and ideal age temporal trends can be significantly reduced by incorporating an additional abiotic tracer with a different temporal evolution, which we show by constraining <span class="inline-formula">Γ</span> with sulfur hexafluoride (<span class="inline-formula">SF<sub>6</sub></span>) in addition to CFC-12.</p>https://os.copernicus.org/articles/21/1167/2025/os-21-1167-2025.pdf
spellingShingle H. Guo
W. Koeve
A. Oschlies
A. Oschlies
Y.-C. He
T. P. Kemena
L. Gerke
I. Kriest
Dual-tracer constraints on the inverse Gaussian transit time distribution improve the estimation of water mass ages and their temporal trends in the tropical thermocline
Ocean Science
title Dual-tracer constraints on the inverse Gaussian transit time distribution improve the estimation of water mass ages and their temporal trends in the tropical thermocline
title_full Dual-tracer constraints on the inverse Gaussian transit time distribution improve the estimation of water mass ages and their temporal trends in the tropical thermocline
title_fullStr Dual-tracer constraints on the inverse Gaussian transit time distribution improve the estimation of water mass ages and their temporal trends in the tropical thermocline
title_full_unstemmed Dual-tracer constraints on the inverse Gaussian transit time distribution improve the estimation of water mass ages and their temporal trends in the tropical thermocline
title_short Dual-tracer constraints on the inverse Gaussian transit time distribution improve the estimation of water mass ages and their temporal trends in the tropical thermocline
title_sort dual tracer constraints on the inverse gaussian transit time distribution improve the estimation of water mass ages and their temporal trends in the tropical thermocline
url https://os.copernicus.org/articles/21/1167/2025/os-21-1167-2025.pdf
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