Levels of SARS-CoV-2 population exposure are considerably higher than suggested by seroprevalence surveys.
Accurate knowledge of prior population exposure has critical ramifications for preparedness plans for future SARS-CoV-2 epidemic waves and vaccine prioritization strategies. Serological studies can be used to estimate levels of past exposure and thus position populations in their epidemic timeline....
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2021-09-01
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| Series: | PLoS Computational Biology |
| Online Access: | https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009436&type=printable |
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| author | Siyu Chen Jennifer A Flegg Lisa J White Ricardo Aguas |
| author_facet | Siyu Chen Jennifer A Flegg Lisa J White Ricardo Aguas |
| author_sort | Siyu Chen |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Accurate knowledge of prior population exposure has critical ramifications for preparedness plans for future SARS-CoV-2 epidemic waves and vaccine prioritization strategies. Serological studies can be used to estimate levels of past exposure and thus position populations in their epidemic timeline. To circumvent biases introduced by the decay in antibody titers over time, methods for estimating population exposure should account for seroreversion, to reflect that changes in seroprevalence measures over time are the net effect of increases due to recent transmission and decreases due to antibody waning. Here, we present a new method that combines multiple datasets (serology, mortality, and virus positivity ratios) to estimate seroreversion time and infection fatality ratios (IFR) and simultaneously infer population exposure levels. The results indicate that the average time to seroreversion is around six months, IFR is 0.54% to 1.3%, and true exposure may be more than double the current seroprevalence levels reported for several regions of England. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-ea7bfb18fac247b1bbdf9d50e3f708ee |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 1553-734X 1553-7358 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2021-09-01 |
| publisher | Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | PLoS Computational Biology |
| spelling | doaj-art-ea7bfb18fac247b1bbdf9d50e3f708ee2025-08-20T02:18:04ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS Computational Biology1553-734X1553-73582021-09-01179e100943610.1371/journal.pcbi.1009436Levels of SARS-CoV-2 population exposure are considerably higher than suggested by seroprevalence surveys.Siyu ChenJennifer A FleggLisa J WhiteRicardo AguasAccurate knowledge of prior population exposure has critical ramifications for preparedness plans for future SARS-CoV-2 epidemic waves and vaccine prioritization strategies. Serological studies can be used to estimate levels of past exposure and thus position populations in their epidemic timeline. To circumvent biases introduced by the decay in antibody titers over time, methods for estimating population exposure should account for seroreversion, to reflect that changes in seroprevalence measures over time are the net effect of increases due to recent transmission and decreases due to antibody waning. Here, we present a new method that combines multiple datasets (serology, mortality, and virus positivity ratios) to estimate seroreversion time and infection fatality ratios (IFR) and simultaneously infer population exposure levels. The results indicate that the average time to seroreversion is around six months, IFR is 0.54% to 1.3%, and true exposure may be more than double the current seroprevalence levels reported for several regions of England.https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009436&type=printable |
| spellingShingle | Siyu Chen Jennifer A Flegg Lisa J White Ricardo Aguas Levels of SARS-CoV-2 population exposure are considerably higher than suggested by seroprevalence surveys. PLoS Computational Biology |
| title | Levels of SARS-CoV-2 population exposure are considerably higher than suggested by seroprevalence surveys. |
| title_full | Levels of SARS-CoV-2 population exposure are considerably higher than suggested by seroprevalence surveys. |
| title_fullStr | Levels of SARS-CoV-2 population exposure are considerably higher than suggested by seroprevalence surveys. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Levels of SARS-CoV-2 population exposure are considerably higher than suggested by seroprevalence surveys. |
| title_short | Levels of SARS-CoV-2 population exposure are considerably higher than suggested by seroprevalence surveys. |
| title_sort | levels of sars cov 2 population exposure are considerably higher than suggested by seroprevalence surveys |
| url | https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009436&type=printable |
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