A phylogenetic epidemiology approach to predicting the establishment of multi-host plant pests
Abstract Forecasting emergent pest spread is paramount to mitigating their impacts. For host-specialized pests, epidemiological models of spread through a single host population are well developed. However, most pests attack multiple host species; the challenge is predicting which communities are mo...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Communications Biology |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s42003-025-07540-y |
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| author | Shannon Colleen Lynch Edeli Reyes-Gonzalez Emily L. Bossard Karen S. Alarcon Natalie L. R. Love Allan D. Hollander Beatriz E. Nobua-Behrmann Gregory S. Gilbert |
| author_facet | Shannon Colleen Lynch Edeli Reyes-Gonzalez Emily L. Bossard Karen S. Alarcon Natalie L. R. Love Allan D. Hollander Beatriz E. Nobua-Behrmann Gregory S. Gilbert |
| author_sort | Shannon Colleen Lynch |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Forecasting emergent pest spread is paramount to mitigating their impacts. For host-specialized pests, epidemiological models of spread through a single host population are well developed. However, most pests attack multiple host species; the challenge is predicting which communities are most vulnerable to infestation. Here, we develop a phylogenetically-informed approach to predict establishment of emergent multi-host pests across heterogeneous landscapes. We model a beetle-pathogen symbiotic complex on trees, introduced from Southeast Asia to California. The phyloEpi model for likelihood of establishment was predicted from the phylogenetic composition of woody species in the invaded community and the influence of temperature on beetle reproduction. Plant communities dominated by close relatives of known epidemiologically critical hosts were four times more likely to become infested than communities with more distantly related species. Where microclimate favored beetle reproduction, pest establishment was greater than expected based only on species composition. We applied this phyloEpi model to predict infestation risk in California using weather data and complete tree inventories from 9262 1-km2 grids in 170 cities. Regions in the state predicted with low likelihood of infestation were confirmed by independent monitoring. Analysts can adapt these phylogenetic ecology tools to predict spread of any multi-host pest in novel habitats. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-ea2e6e74b6cd4dbaae34e811d8d4d3db |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2399-3642 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Communications Biology |
| spelling | doaj-art-ea2e6e74b6cd4dbaae34e811d8d4d3db2025-01-26T12:48:08ZengNature PortfolioCommunications Biology2399-36422025-01-018111010.1038/s42003-025-07540-yA phylogenetic epidemiology approach to predicting the establishment of multi-host plant pestsShannon Colleen Lynch0Edeli Reyes-Gonzalez1Emily L. Bossard2Karen S. Alarcon3Natalie L. R. Love4Allan D. Hollander5Beatriz E. Nobua-Behrmann6Gregory S. Gilbert7Department of Environmental Studies, University of California Santa CruzDepartment of Plant Pathology, University of California DavisDepartment of Plant Pathology, University of California DavisDepartment of Plant Pathology, University of California DavisBiological Sciences Department, California Polytechnic State UniversityInstitute of the Environment, University of California DavisUniversity of California Cooperative ExtensionDepartment of Environmental Studies, University of California Santa CruzAbstract Forecasting emergent pest spread is paramount to mitigating their impacts. For host-specialized pests, epidemiological models of spread through a single host population are well developed. However, most pests attack multiple host species; the challenge is predicting which communities are most vulnerable to infestation. Here, we develop a phylogenetically-informed approach to predict establishment of emergent multi-host pests across heterogeneous landscapes. We model a beetle-pathogen symbiotic complex on trees, introduced from Southeast Asia to California. The phyloEpi model for likelihood of establishment was predicted from the phylogenetic composition of woody species in the invaded community and the influence of temperature on beetle reproduction. Plant communities dominated by close relatives of known epidemiologically critical hosts were four times more likely to become infested than communities with more distantly related species. Where microclimate favored beetle reproduction, pest establishment was greater than expected based only on species composition. We applied this phyloEpi model to predict infestation risk in California using weather data and complete tree inventories from 9262 1-km2 grids in 170 cities. Regions in the state predicted with low likelihood of infestation were confirmed by independent monitoring. Analysts can adapt these phylogenetic ecology tools to predict spread of any multi-host pest in novel habitats.https://doi.org/10.1038/s42003-025-07540-y |
| spellingShingle | Shannon Colleen Lynch Edeli Reyes-Gonzalez Emily L. Bossard Karen S. Alarcon Natalie L. R. Love Allan D. Hollander Beatriz E. Nobua-Behrmann Gregory S. Gilbert A phylogenetic epidemiology approach to predicting the establishment of multi-host plant pests Communications Biology |
| title | A phylogenetic epidemiology approach to predicting the establishment of multi-host plant pests |
| title_full | A phylogenetic epidemiology approach to predicting the establishment of multi-host plant pests |
| title_fullStr | A phylogenetic epidemiology approach to predicting the establishment of multi-host plant pests |
| title_full_unstemmed | A phylogenetic epidemiology approach to predicting the establishment of multi-host plant pests |
| title_short | A phylogenetic epidemiology approach to predicting the establishment of multi-host plant pests |
| title_sort | phylogenetic epidemiology approach to predicting the establishment of multi host plant pests |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s42003-025-07540-y |
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