The Influence of Heat Analysis on the Hatching Rate of Lucilia Sericata (Diptera: Calliphoridae) Eggs Using Polynomial Regression Method
This study examines the effects of temperature on the hatching rates of Lucilia sericata, a species important for forensic entomology and medical biology. Using a polynomial regression approach, we investigated the relationship between extreme thermal conditions and egg emergence rates to provide in...
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Mahmut Akyigit
2025-03-01
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| Series: | Journal of Mathematical Sciences and Modelling |
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| Online Access: | https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/4486396 |
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| author | Erdal Polat Muhammed Erdem İsenkul Emre Deymenci |
| author_facet | Erdal Polat Muhammed Erdem İsenkul Emre Deymenci |
| author_sort | Erdal Polat |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This study examines the effects of temperature on the hatching rates of Lucilia sericata, a species important for forensic entomology and medical biology. Using a polynomial regression approach, we investigated the relationship between extreme thermal conditions and egg emergence rates to provide insights that could enhance applications in postmortem interval (PMI) estimation and ecological modeling. Eggs were subjected to controlled temperature treatments ranging from $0^\circ\mathrm{C}$ to $41^\circ\mathrm{C}$ at $1^\circ\mathrm{C}$ intervals, maintaining 45% relative humidity. Observations were conducted at 24, 48, and 72-hour intervals, with additional incubation at $30^\circ\mathrm{C}$ for those subjected to extreme temperatures. Findings revealed no larval emergence at temperatures below $10^\circ\mathrm{C}$ or above $40^\circ\mathrm{C}$. However, within a $14^\circ\mathrm{C}$ to $38^\circ\mathrm{C}$ range, hatching rates reached their peak at $28^\circ\mathrm{C}$ (89.7%), indicating optimal developmental conditions. Our polynomial regression model demonstrated a high degree of accuracy ($R^2 > 0.70$) in predicting hatching rates across varying temperatures, thus establishing a predictive framework for forensic and ecological applications. The results emphasize the potential for this thermal modeling approach to enhance forensic entomological practices by providing refined developmental timelines for L. sericata, a species widely used in PMI estimation. The findings also underscore the species’ ecological sensitivity to temperature fluctuations, which may inform future ecological distribution models. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-ea0f0c7b3cd44595974f72d20649af20 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2636-8692 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-03-01 |
| publisher | Mahmut Akyigit |
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| series | Journal of Mathematical Sciences and Modelling |
| spelling | doaj-art-ea0f0c7b3cd44595974f72d20649af202025-08-20T02:19:44ZengMahmut AkyigitJournal of Mathematical Sciences and Modelling2636-86922025-03-018171210.33187/jmsm.16118451408The Influence of Heat Analysis on the Hatching Rate of Lucilia Sericata (Diptera: Calliphoridae) Eggs Using Polynomial Regression MethodErdal Polat0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3944-6443Muhammed Erdem İsenkul1https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0856-2174Emre Deymenci2https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1455-1674ISTANBUL UNIVERSITY-CERRAHPASA, CERRAHPAŞA SCHOOL OF MEDICINE, CERRAHPAŞA MEDICINE PR.ISTANBUL UNIVERSITY-CERRAHPASA, FACULTY OF ENGINEERING, DEPARTMENT OF COMPUTER ENGINEERINGISTANBUL UNIVERSITY-CERRAHPASA, INSTITUTE OF FORENSIC SCIENCES, DEPARTMENT OF NATURAL AND APPLIED SCIENCESThis study examines the effects of temperature on the hatching rates of Lucilia sericata, a species important for forensic entomology and medical biology. Using a polynomial regression approach, we investigated the relationship between extreme thermal conditions and egg emergence rates to provide insights that could enhance applications in postmortem interval (PMI) estimation and ecological modeling. Eggs were subjected to controlled temperature treatments ranging from $0^\circ\mathrm{C}$ to $41^\circ\mathrm{C}$ at $1^\circ\mathrm{C}$ intervals, maintaining 45% relative humidity. Observations were conducted at 24, 48, and 72-hour intervals, with additional incubation at $30^\circ\mathrm{C}$ for those subjected to extreme temperatures. Findings revealed no larval emergence at temperatures below $10^\circ\mathrm{C}$ or above $40^\circ\mathrm{C}$. However, within a $14^\circ\mathrm{C}$ to $38^\circ\mathrm{C}$ range, hatching rates reached their peak at $28^\circ\mathrm{C}$ (89.7%), indicating optimal developmental conditions. Our polynomial regression model demonstrated a high degree of accuracy ($R^2 > 0.70$) in predicting hatching rates across varying temperatures, thus establishing a predictive framework for forensic and ecological applications. The results emphasize the potential for this thermal modeling approach to enhance forensic entomological practices by providing refined developmental timelines for L. sericata, a species widely used in PMI estimation. The findings also underscore the species’ ecological sensitivity to temperature fluctuations, which may inform future ecological distribution models.https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/4486396forensic entomologylarval emergencelucilia sericatapolynomial regressiontemperature effects |
| spellingShingle | Erdal Polat Muhammed Erdem İsenkul Emre Deymenci The Influence of Heat Analysis on the Hatching Rate of Lucilia Sericata (Diptera: Calliphoridae) Eggs Using Polynomial Regression Method Journal of Mathematical Sciences and Modelling forensic entomology larval emergence lucilia sericata polynomial regression temperature effects |
| title | The Influence of Heat Analysis on the Hatching Rate of Lucilia Sericata (Diptera: Calliphoridae) Eggs Using Polynomial Regression Method |
| title_full | The Influence of Heat Analysis on the Hatching Rate of Lucilia Sericata (Diptera: Calliphoridae) Eggs Using Polynomial Regression Method |
| title_fullStr | The Influence of Heat Analysis on the Hatching Rate of Lucilia Sericata (Diptera: Calliphoridae) Eggs Using Polynomial Regression Method |
| title_full_unstemmed | The Influence of Heat Analysis on the Hatching Rate of Lucilia Sericata (Diptera: Calliphoridae) Eggs Using Polynomial Regression Method |
| title_short | The Influence of Heat Analysis on the Hatching Rate of Lucilia Sericata (Diptera: Calliphoridae) Eggs Using Polynomial Regression Method |
| title_sort | influence of heat analysis on the hatching rate of lucilia sericata diptera calliphoridae eggs using polynomial regression method |
| topic | forensic entomology larval emergence lucilia sericata polynomial regression temperature effects |
| url | https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/4486396 |
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