Spatiotemporal Patterns and Driving Factors of Cropland Abandonment in Metropolitan Suburbs: A Case Study of Chengdu Directly Administered Zone, Tianfu New Area, Sichuan Province, China

Cropland abandonment (CA) has become a significant threat to agricultural sustainability, particularly in metropolitan suburbs where urban expansion and cropland preservation often conflict. This study examines the Chengdu Directly Administered Zone of the Tianfu New Area in Sichuan Province, China,...

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Main Authors: Mingyong Zuo, Guoxiang Liu, Chuangli Jing, Rui Zhang, Xiaowen Wang, Wenfei Mao, Li Shen, Keren Dai, Xiaodan Wu
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2025-06-01
Series:Land
Subjects:
Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/14/6/1311
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author Mingyong Zuo
Guoxiang Liu
Chuangli Jing
Rui Zhang
Xiaowen Wang
Wenfei Mao
Li Shen
Keren Dai
Xiaodan Wu
author_facet Mingyong Zuo
Guoxiang Liu
Chuangli Jing
Rui Zhang
Xiaowen Wang
Wenfei Mao
Li Shen
Keren Dai
Xiaodan Wu
author_sort Mingyong Zuo
collection DOAJ
description Cropland abandonment (CA) has become a significant threat to agricultural sustainability, particularly in metropolitan suburbs where urban expansion and cropland preservation often conflict. This study examines the Chengdu Directly Administered Zone of the Tianfu New Area in Sichuan Province, China, as a case study, utilizing high-precision vector data from China’s 2019–2023 National Land Survey to identify abandoned croplands through land use change trajectory analysis. By integrating kernel density estimation, spatial autocorrelation analysis, and geographically weighted regression modeling, we quantitatively analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns of CA and the spatial heterogeneity of driving factors in the study area. The results demonstrate an average annual abandonment rate of approximately 8%, exhibiting minor fluctuations but significant spatial clustering characteristics, with abandonment hotspots concentrated in peri-urban areas that gradually expanded toward urban cores over time, while exurban regions showed lower abandonment rates. Cropland quality and the aggregation index were identified as key restraining factors, whereas increasing slope and land development intensity were found to elevate abandonment risks. Notably, distance to roads displayed a negative effect, contrary to conventional understanding, revealing that policy feedback mechanisms induced by anticipated land expropriation along transportation corridors serve as important drivers of suburban abandonment. This study provides a scientific basis for optimizing resilient urban–rural land allocation, curbing speculative abandonment, and exploring integrated “agriculture + ecology + cultural tourism” utilization models for abandoned lands. The findings offer valuable insights for balancing food security and sustainable development in rapidly urbanizing regions worldwide, particularly providing empirical references for developing countries addressing the dilemma between urban expansion and cropland preservation.
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spelling doaj-art-e9e4ea84dc0c4058ad06eb2a120f31212025-08-20T03:27:33ZengMDPI AGLand2073-445X2025-06-01146131110.3390/land14061311Spatiotemporal Patterns and Driving Factors of Cropland Abandonment in Metropolitan Suburbs: A Case Study of Chengdu Directly Administered Zone, Tianfu New Area, Sichuan Province, ChinaMingyong Zuo0Guoxiang Liu1Chuangli Jing2Rui Zhang3Xiaowen Wang4Wenfei Mao5Li Shen6Keren Dai7Xiaodan Wu8Faculty of Geosciences and Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 610097, ChinaFaculty of Geosciences and Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 610097, ChinaFaculty of Geosciences and Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 610097, ChinaFaculty of Geosciences and Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 610097, ChinaFaculty of Geosciences and Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 610097, ChinaFaculty of Geosciences and Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 610097, ChinaFaculty of Geosciences and Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 610097, ChinaThe State Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironment Protection, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059, ChinaFaculty of Geosciences and Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 610097, ChinaCropland abandonment (CA) has become a significant threat to agricultural sustainability, particularly in metropolitan suburbs where urban expansion and cropland preservation often conflict. This study examines the Chengdu Directly Administered Zone of the Tianfu New Area in Sichuan Province, China, as a case study, utilizing high-precision vector data from China’s 2019–2023 National Land Survey to identify abandoned croplands through land use change trajectory analysis. By integrating kernel density estimation, spatial autocorrelation analysis, and geographically weighted regression modeling, we quantitatively analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns of CA and the spatial heterogeneity of driving factors in the study area. The results demonstrate an average annual abandonment rate of approximately 8%, exhibiting minor fluctuations but significant spatial clustering characteristics, with abandonment hotspots concentrated in peri-urban areas that gradually expanded toward urban cores over time, while exurban regions showed lower abandonment rates. Cropland quality and the aggregation index were identified as key restraining factors, whereas increasing slope and land development intensity were found to elevate abandonment risks. Notably, distance to roads displayed a negative effect, contrary to conventional understanding, revealing that policy feedback mechanisms induced by anticipated land expropriation along transportation corridors serve as important drivers of suburban abandonment. This study provides a scientific basis for optimizing resilient urban–rural land allocation, curbing speculative abandonment, and exploring integrated “agriculture + ecology + cultural tourism” utilization models for abandoned lands. The findings offer valuable insights for balancing food security and sustainable development in rapidly urbanizing regions worldwide, particularly providing empirical references for developing countries addressing the dilemma between urban expansion and cropland preservation.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/14/6/1311cropland abandonmentspatiotemporal patternsdriving factorsmetropolitan suburbsTianfu New AreaChina
spellingShingle Mingyong Zuo
Guoxiang Liu
Chuangli Jing
Rui Zhang
Xiaowen Wang
Wenfei Mao
Li Shen
Keren Dai
Xiaodan Wu
Spatiotemporal Patterns and Driving Factors of Cropland Abandonment in Metropolitan Suburbs: A Case Study of Chengdu Directly Administered Zone, Tianfu New Area, Sichuan Province, China
Land
cropland abandonment
spatiotemporal patterns
driving factors
metropolitan suburbs
Tianfu New Area
China
title Spatiotemporal Patterns and Driving Factors of Cropland Abandonment in Metropolitan Suburbs: A Case Study of Chengdu Directly Administered Zone, Tianfu New Area, Sichuan Province, China
title_full Spatiotemporal Patterns and Driving Factors of Cropland Abandonment in Metropolitan Suburbs: A Case Study of Chengdu Directly Administered Zone, Tianfu New Area, Sichuan Province, China
title_fullStr Spatiotemporal Patterns and Driving Factors of Cropland Abandonment in Metropolitan Suburbs: A Case Study of Chengdu Directly Administered Zone, Tianfu New Area, Sichuan Province, China
title_full_unstemmed Spatiotemporal Patterns and Driving Factors of Cropland Abandonment in Metropolitan Suburbs: A Case Study of Chengdu Directly Administered Zone, Tianfu New Area, Sichuan Province, China
title_short Spatiotemporal Patterns and Driving Factors of Cropland Abandonment in Metropolitan Suburbs: A Case Study of Chengdu Directly Administered Zone, Tianfu New Area, Sichuan Province, China
title_sort spatiotemporal patterns and driving factors of cropland abandonment in metropolitan suburbs a case study of chengdu directly administered zone tianfu new area sichuan province china
topic cropland abandonment
spatiotemporal patterns
driving factors
metropolitan suburbs
Tianfu New Area
China
url https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/14/6/1311
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