A Spatial-Temporal ARMA Model of the Incidence of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in Wenzhou, China
To investigate the variability of HFMD in each county of Wenzhou, a spatial-temporal ARMA model is presented, and a general Bayesian framework is given for parameter estimation. The proposed model has two advantages: (i) allowing time series to be correlated, thus it can describe the series both spa...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Wiley
2014-01-01
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| Series: | Abstract and Applied Analysis |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/238724 |
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| _version_ | 1850164731253358592 |
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| author | Jie Li Yanjun Fu Ancha Xu Zumu Zhou Weiming Wang |
| author_facet | Jie Li Yanjun Fu Ancha Xu Zumu Zhou Weiming Wang |
| author_sort | Jie Li |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | To investigate the variability of HFMD in each county of Wenzhou, a spatial-temporal ARMA
model is presented, and a general Bayesian framework is given for parameter estimation. The
proposed model has two advantages: (i) allowing time series to be correlated, thus it can
describe the series both spatially and temporally; (ii) implementing forecast easily. Based on
the HFMD data in Wenzhou, we find that HFMD had positive spatial autocorrelation and
the incidence seasonal peak was between May and July. In the county-level analysis, we find
that after first-order difference the spatial-temporal ARMA (0,0)×(1,0)12 model provides an
adequate fit to the data. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-e9dbab568a4646b9a0ab58a900836b82 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 1085-3375 1687-0409 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2014-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Abstract and Applied Analysis |
| spelling | doaj-art-e9dbab568a4646b9a0ab58a900836b822025-08-20T02:21:54ZengWileyAbstract and Applied Analysis1085-33751687-04092014-01-01201410.1155/2014/238724238724A Spatial-Temporal ARMA Model of the Incidence of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in Wenzhou, ChinaJie Li0Yanjun Fu1Ancha Xu2Zumu Zhou3Weiming Wang4College of Mathematics and Information Science, Wenzhou University, Wenzhou 325035, ChinaCollege of Mathematics and Information Science, Wenzhou University, Wenzhou 325035, ChinaCollege of Mathematics and Information Science, Wenzhou University, Wenzhou 325035, ChinaWenzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Wenzhou 325000, ChinaCollege of Mathematics and Information Science, Wenzhou University, Wenzhou 325035, ChinaTo investigate the variability of HFMD in each county of Wenzhou, a spatial-temporal ARMA model is presented, and a general Bayesian framework is given for parameter estimation. The proposed model has two advantages: (i) allowing time series to be correlated, thus it can describe the series both spatially and temporally; (ii) implementing forecast easily. Based on the HFMD data in Wenzhou, we find that HFMD had positive spatial autocorrelation and the incidence seasonal peak was between May and July. In the county-level analysis, we find that after first-order difference the spatial-temporal ARMA (0,0)×(1,0)12 model provides an adequate fit to the data.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/238724 |
| spellingShingle | Jie Li Yanjun Fu Ancha Xu Zumu Zhou Weiming Wang A Spatial-Temporal ARMA Model of the Incidence of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in Wenzhou, China Abstract and Applied Analysis |
| title | A Spatial-Temporal ARMA Model of the Incidence of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in Wenzhou, China |
| title_full | A Spatial-Temporal ARMA Model of the Incidence of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in Wenzhou, China |
| title_fullStr | A Spatial-Temporal ARMA Model of the Incidence of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in Wenzhou, China |
| title_full_unstemmed | A Spatial-Temporal ARMA Model of the Incidence of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in Wenzhou, China |
| title_short | A Spatial-Temporal ARMA Model of the Incidence of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in Wenzhou, China |
| title_sort | spatial temporal arma model of the incidence of hand foot and mouth disease in wenzhou china |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/238724 |
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