Subsurface ocean turbulent mixing enhances central Pacific ENSO
Abstract Since the 21st century, the El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exhibits more pronounced signals in the central Pacific (CP) rather than the eastern Pacific (EP), but the prediction skill has waned, suggesting limited understanding of crucial dynamics within the prediction framework. Th...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2025-03-01
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| Series: | Nature Communications |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-57058-4 |
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| author | Chuanyu Liu Fan Wang Armin Köhl Xiaowei Wang Chunzai Wang Kelvin J. Richards |
| author_facet | Chuanyu Liu Fan Wang Armin Köhl Xiaowei Wang Chunzai Wang Kelvin J. Richards |
| author_sort | Chuanyu Liu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Since the 21st century, the El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exhibits more pronounced signals in the central Pacific (CP) rather than the eastern Pacific (EP), but the prediction skill has waned, suggesting limited understanding of crucial dynamics within the prediction framework. The ocean mixing around the mixed layer base, which transfers heat downward in a diabatic manner, was considered a potential influencing factor; yet, its effect has not been adequately examined in either CP or EP regions due to insufficient data. Here, we propose an Argo profile data-based mixing estimation model, which yields abundant estimates of subsurface ocean mixing and turbulent heat flux. Consequently, we find significant positive feedback of the ocean mixing-induced diabatic warming/cooling on the CP ENSO, but not on the EP ENSO. Particularly, the diabatic effect dominates sea surface temperature change in the CP region, highlighting the necessity for diabatic CP ENSO positive feedback dynamics in prediction models. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-e9bfadb5834f4f46841244d1e918d586 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2041-1723 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-03-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Nature Communications |
| spelling | doaj-art-e9bfadb5834f4f46841244d1e918d5862025-08-20T02:28:09ZengNature PortfolioNature Communications2041-17232025-03-0116111510.1038/s41467-025-57058-4Subsurface ocean turbulent mixing enhances central Pacific ENSOChuanyu Liu0Fan Wang1Armin Köhl2Xiaowei Wang3Chunzai Wang4Kelvin J. Richards5Key Laboratory of Ocean Observation and Forecasting and Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Waves, Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences (IOCAS)Key Laboratory of Ocean Observation and Forecasting and Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Waves, Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences (IOCAS)Institute of Oceanography (ifm), Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), University of HamburgKey Laboratory of Ocean Observation and Forecasting and Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Waves, Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences (IOCAS)State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography, South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of SciencesDepartment of Oceanography and International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawai’i at MānoaAbstract Since the 21st century, the El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exhibits more pronounced signals in the central Pacific (CP) rather than the eastern Pacific (EP), but the prediction skill has waned, suggesting limited understanding of crucial dynamics within the prediction framework. The ocean mixing around the mixed layer base, which transfers heat downward in a diabatic manner, was considered a potential influencing factor; yet, its effect has not been adequately examined in either CP or EP regions due to insufficient data. Here, we propose an Argo profile data-based mixing estimation model, which yields abundant estimates of subsurface ocean mixing and turbulent heat flux. Consequently, we find significant positive feedback of the ocean mixing-induced diabatic warming/cooling on the CP ENSO, but not on the EP ENSO. Particularly, the diabatic effect dominates sea surface temperature change in the CP region, highlighting the necessity for diabatic CP ENSO positive feedback dynamics in prediction models.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-57058-4 |
| spellingShingle | Chuanyu Liu Fan Wang Armin Köhl Xiaowei Wang Chunzai Wang Kelvin J. Richards Subsurface ocean turbulent mixing enhances central Pacific ENSO Nature Communications |
| title | Subsurface ocean turbulent mixing enhances central Pacific ENSO |
| title_full | Subsurface ocean turbulent mixing enhances central Pacific ENSO |
| title_fullStr | Subsurface ocean turbulent mixing enhances central Pacific ENSO |
| title_full_unstemmed | Subsurface ocean turbulent mixing enhances central Pacific ENSO |
| title_short | Subsurface ocean turbulent mixing enhances central Pacific ENSO |
| title_sort | subsurface ocean turbulent mixing enhances central pacific enso |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-57058-4 |
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