Developing a novel diagnostic model for identifying high-risk plaques in new onset unstable angina pectoris using coronary CT angiography

BackgroundLimited evidence supports the use of electronic health records for developing prediction models to identify high-risk plaques in patients with unstable angina pectoris (UAP). This study aimed to develop and validate a practical high-risk plaque prediction model in patients with new onset U...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Hui Li, Yao Li, Zhuoya Yao, Bin Chen, Shaohuan Qian, Miaonan Li, Hongju Wang
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Frontiers Media S.A. 2025-07-01
Series:Frontiers in Endocrinology
Subjects:
Online Access:https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fendo.2025.1632355/full
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
_version_ 1849411867111325696
author Hui Li
Hui Li
Yao Li
Zhuoya Yao
Bin Chen
Shaohuan Qian
Miaonan Li
Miaonan Li
Hongju Wang
Hongju Wang
author_facet Hui Li
Hui Li
Yao Li
Zhuoya Yao
Bin Chen
Shaohuan Qian
Miaonan Li
Miaonan Li
Hongju Wang
Hongju Wang
author_sort Hui Li
collection DOAJ
description BackgroundLimited evidence supports the use of electronic health records for developing prediction models to identify high-risk plaques in patients with unstable angina pectoris (UAP). This study aimed to develop and validate a practical high-risk plaque prediction model in patients with new onset UAP.MethodsWe prospectively enrolled consecutive patients presenting with new-onset UAP who underwent both coronary angiography and coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) at our center from January 2021 to December 2021. Based on the CCTA findings, the patients were categorized into two distinct groups: a high-risk plaque group (n=57) and a low-risk plaque group (n=26). We utilized LASSO regression and the Boruta algorithm for feature selection and performed multivariate logistic regression analyses to identify variables associated with high-risk plaque. Internal validity of the predictive model was assessed using bootstrapping (500 replications).ResultsWe developed a nomogram to predict high-risk plaque likelihood using LASSO regression, the Boruta algorithm, and multivariate logistic regression analyses. This approach identified four clinical features as significant predictors: diabetes mellitus, current smoking, total cholesterol, and lipoprotein(a). The area-under-the-curve (AUC) values, calculated using the bootstrap method with 500 replicates, for evaluating high-risk plaque in both the development and validation cohorts, were 0.851, accompanied by a 95% Confidence Interval (CI) ranging from 0.768 to 0.935. The nomogram exhibited satisfactory calibration when assessed with the bootstrap method (500 replicates), indicating a strong correlation with high-risk plaque as determined by CCTA. Furthermore, decision curve analysis indicated the clinical utility of this nomogram in accurately predicting high-risk plaque. And a web-based dynamic nomogram was further built to facilitate the prediction procedure.ConclusionsOur prediction nomogram, developed using electronic health records, demonstrated robust capability in accurately identifying high-risk plaque among new onset patients with UAP. The implementation of this predictive tool holds great potential for tailoring individualized treatment strategies.
format Article
id doaj-art-e97a441fa9104d75a59e401cf4570025
institution Kabale University
issn 1664-2392
language English
publishDate 2025-07-01
publisher Frontiers Media S.A.
record_format Article
series Frontiers in Endocrinology
spelling doaj-art-e97a441fa9104d75a59e401cf45700252025-08-20T03:34:39ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Endocrinology1664-23922025-07-011610.3389/fendo.2025.16323551632355Developing a novel diagnostic model for identifying high-risk plaques in new onset unstable angina pectoris using coronary CT angiographyHui Li0Hui Li1Yao Li2Zhuoya Yao3Bin Chen4Shaohuan Qian5Miaonan Li6Miaonan Li7Hongju Wang8Hongju Wang9The First Clinical College, The First Afiliated Hospital of Jinan University, Guangzhou, ChinaDepartment of Cardiovascular Disease, The First Affiliated Hospital of Bengbu Medical University, Bengbu, ChinaDepartment of Cardiovascular Disease, The First Affiliated Hospital of Bengbu Medical University, Bengbu, ChinaDepartment of Cardiovascular Disease, The First Affiliated Hospital of Bengbu Medical University, Bengbu, ChinaDepartment of Cardiovascular Disease, The First Affiliated Hospital of Bengbu Medical University, Bengbu, ChinaDepartment of Cardiovascular Disease, The First Affiliated Hospital of Bengbu Medical University, Bengbu, ChinaThe First Clinical College, The First Afiliated Hospital of Jinan University, Guangzhou, ChinaDepartment of Cardiovascular Disease, The First Affiliated Hospital of Bengbu Medical University, Bengbu, ChinaThe First Clinical College, The First Afiliated Hospital of Jinan University, Guangzhou, ChinaDepartment of Cardiovascular Disease, The First Affiliated Hospital of Bengbu Medical University, Bengbu, ChinaBackgroundLimited evidence supports the use of electronic health records for developing prediction models to identify high-risk plaques in patients with unstable angina pectoris (UAP). This study aimed to develop and validate a practical high-risk plaque prediction model in patients with new onset UAP.MethodsWe prospectively enrolled consecutive patients presenting with new-onset UAP who underwent both coronary angiography and coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) at our center from January 2021 to December 2021. Based on the CCTA findings, the patients were categorized into two distinct groups: a high-risk plaque group (n=57) and a low-risk plaque group (n=26). We utilized LASSO regression and the Boruta algorithm for feature selection and performed multivariate logistic regression analyses to identify variables associated with high-risk plaque. Internal validity of the predictive model was assessed using bootstrapping (500 replications).ResultsWe developed a nomogram to predict high-risk plaque likelihood using LASSO regression, the Boruta algorithm, and multivariate logistic regression analyses. This approach identified four clinical features as significant predictors: diabetes mellitus, current smoking, total cholesterol, and lipoprotein(a). The area-under-the-curve (AUC) values, calculated using the bootstrap method with 500 replicates, for evaluating high-risk plaque in both the development and validation cohorts, were 0.851, accompanied by a 95% Confidence Interval (CI) ranging from 0.768 to 0.935. The nomogram exhibited satisfactory calibration when assessed with the bootstrap method (500 replicates), indicating a strong correlation with high-risk plaque as determined by CCTA. Furthermore, decision curve analysis indicated the clinical utility of this nomogram in accurately predicting high-risk plaque. And a web-based dynamic nomogram was further built to facilitate the prediction procedure.ConclusionsOur prediction nomogram, developed using electronic health records, demonstrated robust capability in accurately identifying high-risk plaque among new onset patients with UAP. The implementation of this predictive tool holds great potential for tailoring individualized treatment strategies.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fendo.2025.1632355/fullunstable angina pectoriscoronary computed tomography angiographyhigh-risk plaqueprediction modelunstable plaque
spellingShingle Hui Li
Hui Li
Yao Li
Zhuoya Yao
Bin Chen
Shaohuan Qian
Miaonan Li
Miaonan Li
Hongju Wang
Hongju Wang
Developing a novel diagnostic model for identifying high-risk plaques in new onset unstable angina pectoris using coronary CT angiography
Frontiers in Endocrinology
unstable angina pectoris
coronary computed tomography angiography
high-risk plaque
prediction model
unstable plaque
title Developing a novel diagnostic model for identifying high-risk plaques in new onset unstable angina pectoris using coronary CT angiography
title_full Developing a novel diagnostic model for identifying high-risk plaques in new onset unstable angina pectoris using coronary CT angiography
title_fullStr Developing a novel diagnostic model for identifying high-risk plaques in new onset unstable angina pectoris using coronary CT angiography
title_full_unstemmed Developing a novel diagnostic model for identifying high-risk plaques in new onset unstable angina pectoris using coronary CT angiography
title_short Developing a novel diagnostic model for identifying high-risk plaques in new onset unstable angina pectoris using coronary CT angiography
title_sort developing a novel diagnostic model for identifying high risk plaques in new onset unstable angina pectoris using coronary ct angiography
topic unstable angina pectoris
coronary computed tomography angiography
high-risk plaque
prediction model
unstable plaque
url https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fendo.2025.1632355/full
work_keys_str_mv AT huili developinganoveldiagnosticmodelforidentifyinghighriskplaquesinnewonsetunstableanginapectorisusingcoronaryctangiography
AT huili developinganoveldiagnosticmodelforidentifyinghighriskplaquesinnewonsetunstableanginapectorisusingcoronaryctangiography
AT yaoli developinganoveldiagnosticmodelforidentifyinghighriskplaquesinnewonsetunstableanginapectorisusingcoronaryctangiography
AT zhuoyayao developinganoveldiagnosticmodelforidentifyinghighriskplaquesinnewonsetunstableanginapectorisusingcoronaryctangiography
AT binchen developinganoveldiagnosticmodelforidentifyinghighriskplaquesinnewonsetunstableanginapectorisusingcoronaryctangiography
AT shaohuanqian developinganoveldiagnosticmodelforidentifyinghighriskplaquesinnewonsetunstableanginapectorisusingcoronaryctangiography
AT miaonanli developinganoveldiagnosticmodelforidentifyinghighriskplaquesinnewonsetunstableanginapectorisusingcoronaryctangiography
AT miaonanli developinganoveldiagnosticmodelforidentifyinghighriskplaquesinnewonsetunstableanginapectorisusingcoronaryctangiography
AT hongjuwang developinganoveldiagnosticmodelforidentifyinghighriskplaquesinnewonsetunstableanginapectorisusingcoronaryctangiography
AT hongjuwang developinganoveldiagnosticmodelforidentifyinghighriskplaquesinnewonsetunstableanginapectorisusingcoronaryctangiography