Predicting CMEs Using ELEvoHI With STEREO‐HI Beacon Data
Abstract Being able to accurately predict the arrival of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at Earth has been a long‐standing problem in space weather research and operations. In this study, we use the ELlipse Evolution model based on Heliospheric Imager (ELEvoHI) to predict the arrival time and speed of...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Wiley
2021-12-01
|
| Series: | Space Weather |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2021SW002873 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1841536448622231552 |
|---|---|
| author | Maike Bauer Tanja Amerstorfer Jürgen Hinterreiter Andreas J. Weiss Jackie A. Davies Christian Möstl Ute V. Amerstorfer Martin A. Reiss Richard A. Harrison |
| author_facet | Maike Bauer Tanja Amerstorfer Jürgen Hinterreiter Andreas J. Weiss Jackie A. Davies Christian Möstl Ute V. Amerstorfer Martin A. Reiss Richard A. Harrison |
| author_sort | Maike Bauer |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Being able to accurately predict the arrival of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at Earth has been a long‐standing problem in space weather research and operations. In this study, we use the ELlipse Evolution model based on Heliospheric Imager (ELEvoHI) to predict the arrival time and speed of 10 CME events that were observed by HI on the STEREO‐A spacecraft between 2010 and 2020. Additionally, we introduce a Python tool for downloading and preparing STEREO‐HI data, as well as tracking CMEs. In contrast to most previous studies, we use not only science data, which have a relatively high spatial and temporal resolution, but also lower‐quality beacon data, which are—in contrast to science data—provided in real‐time by the STEREO‐A spacecraft. We do not use data from the STEREO‐B spacecraft. We get a mean absolute error of 8.81 ± 3.18 hr/59 ± 31 km s−1 for arrival time/speed predictions using science data and 11.36 ± 8.69 hr/106 ± 61 km s−1 for beacon data. We find that using science data generally leads to more accurate predictions, but using beacon data with the ELEvoHI model is certainly a viable choice in the absence of higher resolution real‐time data. We propose that these differences could be minimized if not eliminated altogether if higher quality real‐time data were available, either by enhancing the quality of the already available data or coming from a new mission carrying a HI instrument on‐board. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-e924259df2ca4fd0ab82a14ce6462c65 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1542-7390 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2021-12-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Space Weather |
| spelling | doaj-art-e924259df2ca4fd0ab82a14ce6462c652025-01-14T16:27:22ZengWileySpace Weather1542-73902021-12-011912n/an/a10.1029/2021SW002873Predicting CMEs Using ELEvoHI With STEREO‐HI Beacon DataMaike Bauer0Tanja Amerstorfer1Jürgen Hinterreiter2Andreas J. Weiss3Jackie A. Davies4Christian Möstl5Ute V. Amerstorfer6Martin A. Reiss7Richard A. Harrison8Space Research Institute Austrian Academy of Sciences Graz AustriaSpace Research Institute Austrian Academy of Sciences Graz AustriaSpace Research Institute Austrian Academy of Sciences Graz AustriaSpace Research Institute Austrian Academy of Sciences Graz AustriaRAL Space STFC Rutherford Appleton Laboratory Didcot UKSpace Research Institute Austrian Academy of Sciences Graz AustriaSpace Research Institute Austrian Academy of Sciences Graz AustriaSpace Research Institute Austrian Academy of Sciences Graz AustriaRAL Space STFC Rutherford Appleton Laboratory Didcot UKAbstract Being able to accurately predict the arrival of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at Earth has been a long‐standing problem in space weather research and operations. In this study, we use the ELlipse Evolution model based on Heliospheric Imager (ELEvoHI) to predict the arrival time and speed of 10 CME events that were observed by HI on the STEREO‐A spacecraft between 2010 and 2020. Additionally, we introduce a Python tool for downloading and preparing STEREO‐HI data, as well as tracking CMEs. In contrast to most previous studies, we use not only science data, which have a relatively high spatial and temporal resolution, but also lower‐quality beacon data, which are—in contrast to science data—provided in real‐time by the STEREO‐A spacecraft. We do not use data from the STEREO‐B spacecraft. We get a mean absolute error of 8.81 ± 3.18 hr/59 ± 31 km s−1 for arrival time/speed predictions using science data and 11.36 ± 8.69 hr/106 ± 61 km s−1 for beacon data. We find that using science data generally leads to more accurate predictions, but using beacon data with the ELEvoHI model is certainly a viable choice in the absence of higher resolution real‐time data. We propose that these differences could be minimized if not eliminated altogether if higher quality real‐time data were available, either by enhancing the quality of the already available data or coming from a new mission carrying a HI instrument on‐board.https://doi.org/10.1029/2021SW002873space weather predictioncoronal mass ejectionsensemble modelingheliospheric imagingspace weather |
| spellingShingle | Maike Bauer Tanja Amerstorfer Jürgen Hinterreiter Andreas J. Weiss Jackie A. Davies Christian Möstl Ute V. Amerstorfer Martin A. Reiss Richard A. Harrison Predicting CMEs Using ELEvoHI With STEREO‐HI Beacon Data Space Weather space weather prediction coronal mass ejections ensemble modeling heliospheric imaging space weather |
| title | Predicting CMEs Using ELEvoHI With STEREO‐HI Beacon Data |
| title_full | Predicting CMEs Using ELEvoHI With STEREO‐HI Beacon Data |
| title_fullStr | Predicting CMEs Using ELEvoHI With STEREO‐HI Beacon Data |
| title_full_unstemmed | Predicting CMEs Using ELEvoHI With STEREO‐HI Beacon Data |
| title_short | Predicting CMEs Using ELEvoHI With STEREO‐HI Beacon Data |
| title_sort | predicting cmes using elevohi with stereo hi beacon data |
| topic | space weather prediction coronal mass ejections ensemble modeling heliospheric imaging space weather |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2021SW002873 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT maikebauer predictingcmesusingelevohiwithstereohibeacondata AT tanjaamerstorfer predictingcmesusingelevohiwithstereohibeacondata AT jurgenhinterreiter predictingcmesusingelevohiwithstereohibeacondata AT andreasjweiss predictingcmesusingelevohiwithstereohibeacondata AT jackieadavies predictingcmesusingelevohiwithstereohibeacondata AT christianmostl predictingcmesusingelevohiwithstereohibeacondata AT utevamerstorfer predictingcmesusingelevohiwithstereohibeacondata AT martinareiss predictingcmesusingelevohiwithstereohibeacondata AT richardaharrison predictingcmesusingelevohiwithstereohibeacondata |