Archetypal flow regime change classes and their associations with anthropogenic drivers of global streamflow alterations
Streamflow—a key component of the water cycle—is experiencing drastic alteration due to human actions. The global extent and degree of this change have been widely assessed, but understanding of its drivers remains limited because previous global-scale approaches have largely relied on modelled hypo...
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IOP Publishing
2024-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Communications |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ad9439 |
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| author | Vili Virkki Reetik Kumar Sahu Mikhail Smilovic Josias Láng-Ritter Miina Porkka Matti Kummu |
| author_facet | Vili Virkki Reetik Kumar Sahu Mikhail Smilovic Josias Láng-Ritter Miina Porkka Matti Kummu |
| author_sort | Vili Virkki |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Streamflow—a key component of the water cycle—is experiencing drastic alteration due to human actions. The global extent and degree of this change have been widely assessed, but understanding of its drivers remains limited because previous global-scale approaches have largely relied on modelled hypothetical scenarios. Here, we advance this understanding by providing an observation-based association analysis of streamflow change and its drivers. We use observed streamflow data in 3,293 catchments globally and combine them with data on precipitation, evapotranspiration, water use, and damming. Building on a robust annual trend analysis covering years 1971–2010, we first determine flow regime change (FRC) classes, and then use them to investigate associations between streamflow change and its drivers. We find that 91% of all catchments are assigned to four main FRCs, which indicates globally consistent flow regime changes. By associating driver trends with the FRCs, we further characterise them by trends and changes in the four investigated drivers. We find that FRCs depicting decreasing streamflow quantity and variability are strongly associated with direct human drivers, either water use or damming. In contrast, associations with indirect drivers (precipitation and evapotranspiration) are more dominant in FRCs that depict increasing streamflow quantity and variability. Our key advance is that our comprehensive, observation-based association analysis substantiates the model-based findings of previous global-scale studies, and thus adds detail and validation to their interpretations. This may further support developing and adopting efficient measures to mitigate streamflow change and its subsequent impacts across scales. |
| format | Article |
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| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2515-7620 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
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| series | Environmental Research Communications |
| spelling | doaj-art-e907c674dfc44a0e8dfef8c844cceb7b2025-08-20T02:06:51ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Communications2515-76202024-01-0161111100710.1088/2515-7620/ad9439Archetypal flow regime change classes and their associations with anthropogenic drivers of global streamflow alterationsVili Virkki0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2603-3420Reetik Kumar Sahu1https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0681-0509Mikhail Smilovic2https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9651-8821Josias Láng-Ritter3https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3833-5450Miina Porkka4https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8285-6122Matti Kummu5https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5096-0163Water and Development Research Group, Aalto University ; Espoo, Finland; Water Security Research Group, Biodiversity and Natural Resources Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA); Laxenburg, A-2361, Austria; Department of Environmental and Biological Sciences, University of Eastern Finland ; Joensuu, FinlandWater Security Research Group, Biodiversity and Natural Resources Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA); Laxenburg, A-2361, AustriaWater Security Research Group, Biodiversity and Natural Resources Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA); Laxenburg, A-2361, AustriaWater and Development Research Group, Aalto University ; Espoo, Finland; GIScience for Sustainability Transitions Lab, Aalto University ; Espoo, FinlandWater and Development Research Group, Aalto University ; Espoo, Finland; Department of Environmental and Biological Sciences, University of Eastern Finland ; Joensuu, FinlandWater and Development Research Group, Aalto University ; Espoo, FinlandStreamflow—a key component of the water cycle—is experiencing drastic alteration due to human actions. The global extent and degree of this change have been widely assessed, but understanding of its drivers remains limited because previous global-scale approaches have largely relied on modelled hypothetical scenarios. Here, we advance this understanding by providing an observation-based association analysis of streamflow change and its drivers. We use observed streamflow data in 3,293 catchments globally and combine them with data on precipitation, evapotranspiration, water use, and damming. Building on a robust annual trend analysis covering years 1971–2010, we first determine flow regime change (FRC) classes, and then use them to investigate associations between streamflow change and its drivers. We find that 91% of all catchments are assigned to four main FRCs, which indicates globally consistent flow regime changes. By associating driver trends with the FRCs, we further characterise them by trends and changes in the four investigated drivers. We find that FRCs depicting decreasing streamflow quantity and variability are strongly associated with direct human drivers, either water use or damming. In contrast, associations with indirect drivers (precipitation and evapotranspiration) are more dominant in FRCs that depict increasing streamflow quantity and variability. Our key advance is that our comprehensive, observation-based association analysis substantiates the model-based findings of previous global-scale studies, and thus adds detail and validation to their interpretations. This may further support developing and adopting efficient measures to mitigate streamflow change and its subsequent impacts across scales.https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ad9439global changehydrologyfreshwater cyclefreshwater changestreamflowstreamflow change |
| spellingShingle | Vili Virkki Reetik Kumar Sahu Mikhail Smilovic Josias Láng-Ritter Miina Porkka Matti Kummu Archetypal flow regime change classes and their associations with anthropogenic drivers of global streamflow alterations Environmental Research Communications global change hydrology freshwater cycle freshwater change streamflow streamflow change |
| title | Archetypal flow regime change classes and their associations with anthropogenic drivers of global streamflow alterations |
| title_full | Archetypal flow regime change classes and their associations with anthropogenic drivers of global streamflow alterations |
| title_fullStr | Archetypal flow regime change classes and their associations with anthropogenic drivers of global streamflow alterations |
| title_full_unstemmed | Archetypal flow regime change classes and their associations with anthropogenic drivers of global streamflow alterations |
| title_short | Archetypal flow regime change classes and their associations with anthropogenic drivers of global streamflow alterations |
| title_sort | archetypal flow regime change classes and their associations with anthropogenic drivers of global streamflow alterations |
| topic | global change hydrology freshwater cycle freshwater change streamflow streamflow change |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ad9439 |
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