Land use strategies for achieving Chile’s nationally determined contributions
Chile’s Nationally determined contributions (NDCs) commit to carbon neutrality by 2050, with measures to reduce emissions and natural hazards while enhancing water security. The Forestry and Other Land Uses (FOLU) sectors are critical to Chile’s goal of carbon neutrality, as they serve as a net carb...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research: Ecology |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-664X/adf22f |
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| author | Onil Banerjee Martin Cicowiez Gonzalo García-Trujillo Kenneth J Bagstad Sebastian Dudek Justin Andrew Johnson Elías Albagli Mario Gonzalez Maria Antonia Yung |
| author_facet | Onil Banerjee Martin Cicowiez Gonzalo García-Trujillo Kenneth J Bagstad Sebastian Dudek Justin Andrew Johnson Elías Albagli Mario Gonzalez Maria Antonia Yung |
| author_sort | Onil Banerjee |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Chile’s Nationally determined contributions (NDCs) commit to carbon neutrality by 2050, with measures to reduce emissions and natural hazards while enhancing water security. The Forestry and Other Land Uses (FOLU) sectors are critical to Chile’s goal of carbon neutrality, as they serve as a net carbon sink. In this paper, we conduct policy scenario analysis focusing on FOLU strategies for meeting the NDCs. We implement the Integrated Economic-Environmental Modeling framework linked with spatial Land Use-Land Cover and Ecosystem Services (ES) Modeling (IEEM + ESM) to assess impacts on economic, environmental and social indicators. Our results show that the implementation of Chile’s FOLU strategies would reduce emissions, enhance wealth and economic growth and increase future flows of ES. Carbon dioxide emissions would be reduced (by 151 million tons by 2050) to levels that would be considerably better than current Government expectations. Gross Domestic Product and wealth would be bolstered by US$16 065 million and US$22 731 million, respectively. Water-related ES would improve including the quality of potable water, while more water would be maintained within forested ecosystems, thereby reducing the future risk of natural hazards such as landslides and floods. The FOLU strategies would create 72 800 new jobs and reduce poverty by 15 586 individuals. Analysis with IEEM + ESM demonstrates that reducing wildfire-driven forest loss would have outsized impacts and be the most effective and expedient way to contribute to meeting NDC targets. The IEEM + ESM approach is an example of an analytical framework that is meeting growing demand from Government institutions and multilateral development banks for understanding the effects and transition pathways of NDC strategies on economic, social and environmental outcomes. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-e8ff4b50dccb49a9ace82d3ba7fc733e |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2752-664X |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research: Ecology |
| spelling | doaj-art-e8ff4b50dccb49a9ace82d3ba7fc733e2025-08-20T03:58:36ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research: Ecology2752-664X2025-01-014303500210.1088/2752-664X/adf22fLand use strategies for achieving Chile’s nationally determined contributionsOnil Banerjee0https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4455-020XMartin Cicowiez1Gonzalo García-Trujillo2https://orcid.org/0009-0004-1661-1962Kenneth J Bagstad3Sebastian Dudek4Justin Andrew Johnson5https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9903-1787Elías Albagli6Mario Gonzalez7Maria Antonia Yung8RMGEO Consultants Inc , 951 Regent Street, Suite 216, Fredericton, NB, CanadaNational University of La Plata School of Economics National University of La Plata , Calle 6 between 47 and 48, 3rd floor, office 312, 1900 La Plata, ArgentinaCentral Bank of Chile Economic Research Unit Agustinas 1180 , floor 4th Santiago Municipality, Santiago, ChileUnited States Geological Survey Geosciences and Environmental Change Science Center , PO Box 25046, MS 980, Denver, CO 80225, United States of AmericaRMGEO Consultants Inc , 951 Regent Street, Suite 216, Fredericton, NB E3B-6Z2, CanadaUniversity of Minnesot Applied Economics 1994 Buford Avenue , Saint Paul, MN 55108, United States of AmericaCentral Bank of Chile Head of the Monetary Policy Division , Agustinas 1180, Santiago Municipality, Santiago, ChileCentral Bank of Chile Economic Research Unit , Agustinas 1180, floor 4th Santiago Municipality, Santiago, ChileCentral Bank of Chile Economic Research Unit Agustinas 1180 , floor 4th Santiago Municipality, Santiago, ChileChile’s Nationally determined contributions (NDCs) commit to carbon neutrality by 2050, with measures to reduce emissions and natural hazards while enhancing water security. The Forestry and Other Land Uses (FOLU) sectors are critical to Chile’s goal of carbon neutrality, as they serve as a net carbon sink. In this paper, we conduct policy scenario analysis focusing on FOLU strategies for meeting the NDCs. We implement the Integrated Economic-Environmental Modeling framework linked with spatial Land Use-Land Cover and Ecosystem Services (ES) Modeling (IEEM + ESM) to assess impacts on economic, environmental and social indicators. Our results show that the implementation of Chile’s FOLU strategies would reduce emissions, enhance wealth and economic growth and increase future flows of ES. Carbon dioxide emissions would be reduced (by 151 million tons by 2050) to levels that would be considerably better than current Government expectations. Gross Domestic Product and wealth would be bolstered by US$16 065 million and US$22 731 million, respectively. Water-related ES would improve including the quality of potable water, while more water would be maintained within forested ecosystems, thereby reducing the future risk of natural hazards such as landslides and floods. The FOLU strategies would create 72 800 new jobs and reduce poverty by 15 586 individuals. Analysis with IEEM + ESM demonstrates that reducing wildfire-driven forest loss would have outsized impacts and be the most effective and expedient way to contribute to meeting NDC targets. The IEEM + ESM approach is an example of an analytical framework that is meeting growing demand from Government institutions and multilateral development banks for understanding the effects and transition pathways of NDC strategies on economic, social and environmental outcomes.https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-664X/adf22fforestry and other land uses (FOLU)nationally determined contributions (NDCs)integrated economic-environmental model (IEEM)natural capital and ecosystem servicesclimate changeChile |
| spellingShingle | Onil Banerjee Martin Cicowiez Gonzalo García-Trujillo Kenneth J Bagstad Sebastian Dudek Justin Andrew Johnson Elías Albagli Mario Gonzalez Maria Antonia Yung Land use strategies for achieving Chile’s nationally determined contributions Environmental Research: Ecology forestry and other land uses (FOLU) nationally determined contributions (NDCs) integrated economic-environmental model (IEEM) natural capital and ecosystem services climate change Chile |
| title | Land use strategies for achieving Chile’s nationally determined contributions |
| title_full | Land use strategies for achieving Chile’s nationally determined contributions |
| title_fullStr | Land use strategies for achieving Chile’s nationally determined contributions |
| title_full_unstemmed | Land use strategies for achieving Chile’s nationally determined contributions |
| title_short | Land use strategies for achieving Chile’s nationally determined contributions |
| title_sort | land use strategies for achieving chile s nationally determined contributions |
| topic | forestry and other land uses (FOLU) nationally determined contributions (NDCs) integrated economic-environmental model (IEEM) natural capital and ecosystem services climate change Chile |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-664X/adf22f |
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