A Deep Learning Approach for General Aviation Trajectory Prediction Based on Stochastic Processes for Uncertainty Handling

General aviation trajectory prediction plays a crucial role in enhancing safety and operational efficiency at non-towered airports. However, current research faces multiple challenges including variable weather conditions, complex aircraft interactions, and flight pattern constraints specified by ge...

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Main Authors: Houru Hu, Ye Yuan, Qingwen Xue
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2025-06-01
Series:Applied Sciences
Subjects:
Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/15/12/6810
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author Houru Hu
Ye Yuan
Qingwen Xue
author_facet Houru Hu
Ye Yuan
Qingwen Xue
author_sort Houru Hu
collection DOAJ
description General aviation trajectory prediction plays a crucial role in enhancing safety and operational efficiency at non-towered airports. However, current research faces multiple challenges including variable weather conditions, complex aircraft interactions, and flight pattern constraints specified by general aviation regulations. This paper proposes a deep learning method based on stochastic processes aimed at addressing uncertainty issues in general aviation trajectory prediction. First, we design a probabilistic encoder–decoder structure enabling the model to output trajectory distributions rather than single paths, with regularization terms based on Lyapunov stability theory to ensure predicted trajectories maintain stable convergence while satisfying flight patterns. Second, we develop a multi-layer attention mechanism that accounts for weather factors, enhancing the model’s responsiveness to environmental changes. Validation using the TrajAir dataset from Pittsburgh-Butler Regional Airport (KBTP) not only advances deep learning applications in general aviation but also provides new insights for solving trajectory prediction problems.
format Article
id doaj-art-e8e3bdabbb4f48a7bac5e2842c8369d1
institution Kabale University
issn 2076-3417
language English
publishDate 2025-06-01
publisher MDPI AG
record_format Article
series Applied Sciences
spelling doaj-art-e8e3bdabbb4f48a7bac5e2842c8369d12025-08-20T03:32:31ZengMDPI AGApplied Sciences2076-34172025-06-011512681010.3390/app15126810A Deep Learning Approach for General Aviation Trajectory Prediction Based on Stochastic Processes for Uncertainty HandlingHouru Hu0Ye Yuan1Qingwen Xue2The College of Civil Aviation, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 211100, ChinaThe College of Civil Aviation, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 211100, ChinaThe College of General Aviation and Flight, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 211100, ChinaGeneral aviation trajectory prediction plays a crucial role in enhancing safety and operational efficiency at non-towered airports. However, current research faces multiple challenges including variable weather conditions, complex aircraft interactions, and flight pattern constraints specified by general aviation regulations. This paper proposes a deep learning method based on stochastic processes aimed at addressing uncertainty issues in general aviation trajectory prediction. First, we design a probabilistic encoder–decoder structure enabling the model to output trajectory distributions rather than single paths, with regularization terms based on Lyapunov stability theory to ensure predicted trajectories maintain stable convergence while satisfying flight patterns. Second, we develop a multi-layer attention mechanism that accounts for weather factors, enhancing the model’s responsiveness to environmental changes. Validation using the TrajAir dataset from Pittsburgh-Butler Regional Airport (KBTP) not only advances deep learning applications in general aviation but also provides new insights for solving trajectory prediction problems.https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/15/12/6810trajectory predictiondeep learninggeneral aviation
spellingShingle Houru Hu
Ye Yuan
Qingwen Xue
A Deep Learning Approach for General Aviation Trajectory Prediction Based on Stochastic Processes for Uncertainty Handling
Applied Sciences
trajectory prediction
deep learning
general aviation
title A Deep Learning Approach for General Aviation Trajectory Prediction Based on Stochastic Processes for Uncertainty Handling
title_full A Deep Learning Approach for General Aviation Trajectory Prediction Based on Stochastic Processes for Uncertainty Handling
title_fullStr A Deep Learning Approach for General Aviation Trajectory Prediction Based on Stochastic Processes for Uncertainty Handling
title_full_unstemmed A Deep Learning Approach for General Aviation Trajectory Prediction Based on Stochastic Processes for Uncertainty Handling
title_short A Deep Learning Approach for General Aviation Trajectory Prediction Based on Stochastic Processes for Uncertainty Handling
title_sort deep learning approach for general aviation trajectory prediction based on stochastic processes for uncertainty handling
topic trajectory prediction
deep learning
general aviation
url https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/15/12/6810
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