Forecasting the Cumulative Confirmed Cases with the FGM and Fractional-Order Buffer Operator in Different Stages of COVID-19
This study proposes to use the fractional-order accumulation grey model (FGM) combined with the fractional-order buffer operator to predict the cumulative confirmed cases in different stages of COVID-19. In the early stages of COVID-19 outbreak, when the cumulative confirmed cases increased rapidly,...
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| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2021-01-01
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| Series: | Journal of Mathematics |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2021/6178629 |
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| _version_ | 1850164652601769984 |
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| author | Yanhui Chen Minglei Zhang Kai Lisa Lo Jackson Jinhong Mi |
| author_facet | Yanhui Chen Minglei Zhang Kai Lisa Lo Jackson Jinhong Mi |
| author_sort | Yanhui Chen |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This study proposes to use the fractional-order accumulation grey model (FGM) combined with the fractional-order buffer operator to predict the cumulative confirmed cases in different stages of COVID-19. In the early stages of COVID-19 outbreak, when the cumulative confirmed cases increased rapidly, we used the strengthening buffer operator in the prediction process. After the government’s prevention measures started to take effect, the growth rate of cumulative confirmed cases slows down. Therefore, the weakening buffer operator is applied in the prediction process. The fractional order of the buffer operator is derived from the historical data, which are more relevant. The empirical analysis of seven countries’ data shows that the FGM with the fractional-order buffer operator achieves the best results for most cases. The fractional-order buffer operator improves the prediction accuracy of the FGM in this study. Our study also suggests a practical way for predicting the trend of epidemic diseases. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-e8ce5aadf4f4468a871e0ccb8d1bd995 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2314-4785 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2021-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Mathematics |
| spelling | doaj-art-e8ce5aadf4f4468a871e0ccb8d1bd9952025-08-20T02:21:57ZengWileyJournal of Mathematics2314-47852021-01-01202110.1155/2021/61786296178629Forecasting the Cumulative Confirmed Cases with the FGM and Fractional-Order Buffer Operator in Different Stages of COVID-19Yanhui Chen0Minglei Zhang1Kai Lisa Lo2Jackson Jinhong Mi3School of Economics and ManagementSchool of Economics and ManagementSchool of Economics and ManagementSchool of Economics and ManagementThis study proposes to use the fractional-order accumulation grey model (FGM) combined with the fractional-order buffer operator to predict the cumulative confirmed cases in different stages of COVID-19. In the early stages of COVID-19 outbreak, when the cumulative confirmed cases increased rapidly, we used the strengthening buffer operator in the prediction process. After the government’s prevention measures started to take effect, the growth rate of cumulative confirmed cases slows down. Therefore, the weakening buffer operator is applied in the prediction process. The fractional order of the buffer operator is derived from the historical data, which are more relevant. The empirical analysis of seven countries’ data shows that the FGM with the fractional-order buffer operator achieves the best results for most cases. The fractional-order buffer operator improves the prediction accuracy of the FGM in this study. Our study also suggests a practical way for predicting the trend of epidemic diseases.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2021/6178629 |
| spellingShingle | Yanhui Chen Minglei Zhang Kai Lisa Lo Jackson Jinhong Mi Forecasting the Cumulative Confirmed Cases with the FGM and Fractional-Order Buffer Operator in Different Stages of COVID-19 Journal of Mathematics |
| title | Forecasting the Cumulative Confirmed Cases with the FGM and Fractional-Order Buffer Operator in Different Stages of COVID-19 |
| title_full | Forecasting the Cumulative Confirmed Cases with the FGM and Fractional-Order Buffer Operator in Different Stages of COVID-19 |
| title_fullStr | Forecasting the Cumulative Confirmed Cases with the FGM and Fractional-Order Buffer Operator in Different Stages of COVID-19 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Forecasting the Cumulative Confirmed Cases with the FGM and Fractional-Order Buffer Operator in Different Stages of COVID-19 |
| title_short | Forecasting the Cumulative Confirmed Cases with the FGM and Fractional-Order Buffer Operator in Different Stages of COVID-19 |
| title_sort | forecasting the cumulative confirmed cases with the fgm and fractional order buffer operator in different stages of covid 19 |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2021/6178629 |
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