Pervasive glacier retreats across Svalbard from 1985 to 2023
Abstract A major uncertainty in predicting the behaviour of marine-terminating glaciers is ice dynamics driven by non-linear calving front retreat, which is poorly understood and modelled. Using 124919 calving front positions for 149 marine-terminating glaciers in Svalbard from 1985 to 2023, generat...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Nature Communications |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-55948-1 |
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| author | Tian Li Stefan Hofer Geir Moholdt Adam Igneczi Konrad Heidler Xiao Xiang Zhu Jonathan Bamber |
| author_facet | Tian Li Stefan Hofer Geir Moholdt Adam Igneczi Konrad Heidler Xiao Xiang Zhu Jonathan Bamber |
| author_sort | Tian Li |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract A major uncertainty in predicting the behaviour of marine-terminating glaciers is ice dynamics driven by non-linear calving front retreat, which is poorly understood and modelled. Using 124919 calving front positions for 149 marine-terminating glaciers in Svalbard from 1985 to 2023, generated with deep learning, we identify pervasive calving front retreats for non-surging glaciers over the past 38 years. We observe widespread seasonal cycles in calving front position for over half of the glaciers. At the seasonal timescale, peak retreat rates exhibit a several-month phase lag, with changes on the west coast occurring before those on the east coast, coincident with regional ocean warming. This spatial variability in seasonal patterns is linked to different timings of warm ocean water inflow from the West Spitsbergen Current, demonstrating the dominant role of ice-ocean interaction in seasonal front changes. The interannual variability of calving front retreat shows a strong sensitivity to both atmospheric and oceanic warming, with immediate responses to large air and ocean temperature anomalies in 2016 and 2019, likely driven by atmospheric blocking that can influence extreme temperature variability. With more frequent blocking occurring and continued regional warming, future calving front retreats will likely intensify, leading to more significant glacier mass loss. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-e8af6f12de9c455fb67fd381c5fd2691 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2041-1723 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
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| series | Nature Communications |
| spelling | doaj-art-e8af6f12de9c455fb67fd381c5fd26912025-01-19T12:30:54ZengNature PortfolioNature Communications2041-17232025-01-0116111110.1038/s41467-025-55948-1Pervasive glacier retreats across Svalbard from 1985 to 2023Tian Li0Stefan Hofer1Geir Moholdt2Adam Igneczi3Konrad Heidler4Xiao Xiang Zhu5Jonathan Bamber6Chair of Data Science in Earth Observation, Department of Aerospace and Geodesy, Technical University of MunichBristol Glaciology Centre, School of Geographical Sciences, University of BristolNorwegian Polar InstituteBristol Glaciology Centre, School of Geographical Sciences, University of BristolChair of Data Science in Earth Observation, Department of Aerospace and Geodesy, Technical University of MunichChair of Data Science in Earth Observation, Department of Aerospace and Geodesy, Technical University of MunichChair of Data Science in Earth Observation, Department of Aerospace and Geodesy, Technical University of MunichAbstract A major uncertainty in predicting the behaviour of marine-terminating glaciers is ice dynamics driven by non-linear calving front retreat, which is poorly understood and modelled. Using 124919 calving front positions for 149 marine-terminating glaciers in Svalbard from 1985 to 2023, generated with deep learning, we identify pervasive calving front retreats for non-surging glaciers over the past 38 years. We observe widespread seasonal cycles in calving front position for over half of the glaciers. At the seasonal timescale, peak retreat rates exhibit a several-month phase lag, with changes on the west coast occurring before those on the east coast, coincident with regional ocean warming. This spatial variability in seasonal patterns is linked to different timings of warm ocean water inflow from the West Spitsbergen Current, demonstrating the dominant role of ice-ocean interaction in seasonal front changes. The interannual variability of calving front retreat shows a strong sensitivity to both atmospheric and oceanic warming, with immediate responses to large air and ocean temperature anomalies in 2016 and 2019, likely driven by atmospheric blocking that can influence extreme temperature variability. With more frequent blocking occurring and continued regional warming, future calving front retreats will likely intensify, leading to more significant glacier mass loss.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-55948-1 |
| spellingShingle | Tian Li Stefan Hofer Geir Moholdt Adam Igneczi Konrad Heidler Xiao Xiang Zhu Jonathan Bamber Pervasive glacier retreats across Svalbard from 1985 to 2023 Nature Communications |
| title | Pervasive glacier retreats across Svalbard from 1985 to 2023 |
| title_full | Pervasive glacier retreats across Svalbard from 1985 to 2023 |
| title_fullStr | Pervasive glacier retreats across Svalbard from 1985 to 2023 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Pervasive glacier retreats across Svalbard from 1985 to 2023 |
| title_short | Pervasive glacier retreats across Svalbard from 1985 to 2023 |
| title_sort | pervasive glacier retreats across svalbard from 1985 to 2023 |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-55948-1 |
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