Bayesian network for predicting mandibular third molar extraction difficulty

Abstract Background This study aimed to establish a model for predicting the difficulty of mandibular third molar extraction based on a Bayesian network to meet following requirements: (1) analyse the interaction of the primary risk factors; (2) output quantitative difficulty-evaluation results base...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Tian Meng, Zhiyong Zhang, Xiao Zhang, Chao Zhang
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: BMC 2025-01-01
Series:BMC Oral Health
Subjects:
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1186/s12903-025-05432-5
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
_version_ 1850098834139512832
author Tian Meng
Zhiyong Zhang
Xiao Zhang
Chao Zhang
author_facet Tian Meng
Zhiyong Zhang
Xiao Zhang
Chao Zhang
author_sort Tian Meng
collection DOAJ
description Abstract Background This study aimed to establish a model for predicting the difficulty of mandibular third molar extraction based on a Bayesian network to meet following requirements: (1) analyse the interaction of the primary risk factors; (2) output quantitative difficulty-evaluation results based on the patient’s personal situation; and (3) identify key surgical points and propose surgical protocols to decrease complications. Methods Relevant articles were searched to identify risk factors. Clinical knowledge and experience were used to analyse the risk factors to establish the Bayesian network. First, the qualitative mechanism knowledge, including the effect of risk factors on the extraction difficulty and the causal relationships between risk factors, was analysed to establish the framework of the Bayesian network. Then, the quantitative knowledge, including the occurrence probability of the parent nodes and the conditional probability table of the nodes with causal relationships, was given by the surgeon experience and calculated using the Dempster-Shafer evidence theory. According to the framework and likelihoods and relationships of risk factors, the Bayesian network model was established. Results This Bayesian network model analysed the weight by sensitivity of each risk factor and expressed the interaction relationship among risk factors as well as the effect of risk factors on extraction difficulty quantitatively. This Bayesian network model showed quantitative analysis results for extraction difficulty and key risk factors. The Bayesian network model revealed that the relationship to the inferior alveolar nerve, surgeon experience and patient anxiety were the most important risk factors for extraction difficulty. By integrating these patient-specific risk factors across the entire surgical process, this model could be used during preoperative planning to identify high-risk cases and to optimize resource allocation; during intraoperative management to tailor surgical techniques; and during postoperative follow-up to establish targeted follow-up protocols for high-risk patients. Moreover, this Bayesian network model can flexibly improve inclusion factors and conditional probabilities with the development of relevant research and expert opinions, as well as change states and probabilities of relevant nodes based on actual clinical conditions. Conclusions A model for predicting the difficulty of mandibular third molar extraction was established based on a Bayesian network.
format Article
id doaj-art-e89d611a684a4a3abecd70905e413737
institution DOAJ
issn 1472-6831
language English
publishDate 2025-01-01
publisher BMC
record_format Article
series BMC Oral Health
spelling doaj-art-e89d611a684a4a3abecd70905e4137372025-08-20T02:40:36ZengBMCBMC Oral Health1472-68312025-01-012511810.1186/s12903-025-05432-5Bayesian network for predicting mandibular third molar extraction difficultyTian Meng0Zhiyong Zhang1Xiao Zhang2Chao Zhang3First Clinical Division, Peking University School and Hospital of Stomatology & National Center for Stomatology & National Clinical Research Center for Oral Diseases & National Engineering Research Center of Oral Biomaterials and Digital Medical Devices & Beijing Key Laboratory of Digital Stomatology & Research Center of Engineering and Technology for Computerized Dentistry Ministry of Health & NMPA Key Laboratory for Dental MaterialsFirst Clinical Division, Peking University School and Hospital of Stomatology & National Center for Stomatology & National Clinical Research Center for Oral Diseases & National Engineering Research Center of Oral Biomaterials and Digital Medical Devices & Beijing Key Laboratory of Digital Stomatology & Research Center of Engineering and Technology for Computerized Dentistry Ministry of Health & NMPA Key Laboratory for Dental MaterialsFirst Clinical Division, Peking University School and Hospital of Stomatology & National Center for Stomatology & National Clinical Research Center for Oral Diseases & National Engineering Research Center of Oral Biomaterials and Digital Medical Devices & Beijing Key Laboratory of Digital Stomatology & Research Center of Engineering and Technology for Computerized Dentistry Ministry of Health & NMPA Key Laboratory for Dental MaterialsSub-Institute of Public Safety Standardization, China National Institute of StandardizationAbstract Background This study aimed to establish a model for predicting the difficulty of mandibular third molar extraction based on a Bayesian network to meet following requirements: (1) analyse the interaction of the primary risk factors; (2) output quantitative difficulty-evaluation results based on the patient’s personal situation; and (3) identify key surgical points and propose surgical protocols to decrease complications. Methods Relevant articles were searched to identify risk factors. Clinical knowledge and experience were used to analyse the risk factors to establish the Bayesian network. First, the qualitative mechanism knowledge, including the effect of risk factors on the extraction difficulty and the causal relationships between risk factors, was analysed to establish the framework of the Bayesian network. Then, the quantitative knowledge, including the occurrence probability of the parent nodes and the conditional probability table of the nodes with causal relationships, was given by the surgeon experience and calculated using the Dempster-Shafer evidence theory. According to the framework and likelihoods and relationships of risk factors, the Bayesian network model was established. Results This Bayesian network model analysed the weight by sensitivity of each risk factor and expressed the interaction relationship among risk factors as well as the effect of risk factors on extraction difficulty quantitatively. This Bayesian network model showed quantitative analysis results for extraction difficulty and key risk factors. The Bayesian network model revealed that the relationship to the inferior alveolar nerve, surgeon experience and patient anxiety were the most important risk factors for extraction difficulty. By integrating these patient-specific risk factors across the entire surgical process, this model could be used during preoperative planning to identify high-risk cases and to optimize resource allocation; during intraoperative management to tailor surgical techniques; and during postoperative follow-up to establish targeted follow-up protocols for high-risk patients. Moreover, this Bayesian network model can flexibly improve inclusion factors and conditional probabilities with the development of relevant research and expert opinions, as well as change states and probabilities of relevant nodes based on actual clinical conditions. Conclusions A model for predicting the difficulty of mandibular third molar extraction was established based on a Bayesian network.https://doi.org/10.1186/s12903-025-05432-5Tooth extractionArtificial intelligenceClinical decision-makingRisk assessmentPreoperative periodIntraoperative complications
spellingShingle Tian Meng
Zhiyong Zhang
Xiao Zhang
Chao Zhang
Bayesian network for predicting mandibular third molar extraction difficulty
BMC Oral Health
Tooth extraction
Artificial intelligence
Clinical decision-making
Risk assessment
Preoperative period
Intraoperative complications
title Bayesian network for predicting mandibular third molar extraction difficulty
title_full Bayesian network for predicting mandibular third molar extraction difficulty
title_fullStr Bayesian network for predicting mandibular third molar extraction difficulty
title_full_unstemmed Bayesian network for predicting mandibular third molar extraction difficulty
title_short Bayesian network for predicting mandibular third molar extraction difficulty
title_sort bayesian network for predicting mandibular third molar extraction difficulty
topic Tooth extraction
Artificial intelligence
Clinical decision-making
Risk assessment
Preoperative period
Intraoperative complications
url https://doi.org/10.1186/s12903-025-05432-5
work_keys_str_mv AT tianmeng bayesiannetworkforpredictingmandibularthirdmolarextractiondifficulty
AT zhiyongzhang bayesiannetworkforpredictingmandibularthirdmolarextractiondifficulty
AT xiaozhang bayesiannetworkforpredictingmandibularthirdmolarextractiondifficulty
AT chaozhang bayesiannetworkforpredictingmandibularthirdmolarextractiondifficulty