Impact of economic growth patterns on carbon quota allocation by industry in China: extensive or intensive

Abstract Economic growth is closely related to carbon emissions, and determining the appropriate emission reduction targets for various sectors under different economic models has always been a challenge. This paper utilizes an Energy-Economic-Environment CGE model to simulate two types of economic...

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Main Authors: Lang Tang, Peng Wang, Xiaoyu Liu, Songyan Ren, Haihua Mo, Hai Tao, Jiabao Cao
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Nature Portfolio 2025-04-01
Series:Scientific Reports
Subjects:
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-91114-9
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author Lang Tang
Peng Wang
Xiaoyu Liu
Songyan Ren
Haihua Mo
Hai Tao
Jiabao Cao
author_facet Lang Tang
Peng Wang
Xiaoyu Liu
Songyan Ren
Haihua Mo
Hai Tao
Jiabao Cao
author_sort Lang Tang
collection DOAJ
description Abstract Economic growth is closely related to carbon emissions, and determining the appropriate emission reduction targets for various sectors under different economic models has always been a challenge. This paper utilizes an Energy-Economic-Environment CGE model to simulate two types of economic growth models: extensive and intensive. Four economic growth scenarios are defined, and initial carbon quota allocations for various sectors are obtained for China at two key points: the peak year (2029) and the post-peak year (2035). The ZSG-DEA model is applied, considering the principles of fairness and efficiency, to iterate carbon efficiency across 33 industries and obtain quota adjustment values. The results indicate that the innovation-driven scenario, representing intensive growth, achieves a win-win outcome compared to other scenarios by enhancing GDP and avoiding additional carbon reduction costs. The initial carbon emission efficiency in agriculture, chemicals, steel, electronics, water supply, and services all reached 1. Comparative analysis reveals that the sectors of electricity, chemicals, coal, and cement face higher emission reduction pressures, while agriculture and services experience relatively lower pressures.
format Article
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institution DOAJ
issn 2045-2322
language English
publishDate 2025-04-01
publisher Nature Portfolio
record_format Article
series Scientific Reports
spelling doaj-art-e8645172b5fb4d82902eb2d5039f03982025-08-20T03:18:32ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222025-04-0115111710.1038/s41598-025-91114-9Impact of economic growth patterns on carbon quota allocation by industry in China: extensive or intensiveLang Tang0Peng Wang1Xiaoyu Liu2Songyan Ren3Haihua Mo4Hai Tao5Jiabao Cao6School of Energy Science and Engineering, University of Science and Technology of ChinaGuangzhou Institute of Energy Conversion, Chinese Academy of SciencesGuangzhou Institute of Energy Conversion, Chinese Academy of SciencesGuangzhou Institute of Energy Conversion, Chinese Academy of SciencesSchool of Energy Science and Engineering, University of Science and Technology of ChinaGuangzhou Institute of Energy Conversion, Chinese Academy of SciencesGuangzhou Institute of Energy Conversion, Chinese Academy of SciencesAbstract Economic growth is closely related to carbon emissions, and determining the appropriate emission reduction targets for various sectors under different economic models has always been a challenge. This paper utilizes an Energy-Economic-Environment CGE model to simulate two types of economic growth models: extensive and intensive. Four economic growth scenarios are defined, and initial carbon quota allocations for various sectors are obtained for China at two key points: the peak year (2029) and the post-peak year (2035). The ZSG-DEA model is applied, considering the principles of fairness and efficiency, to iterate carbon efficiency across 33 industries and obtain quota adjustment values. The results indicate that the innovation-driven scenario, representing intensive growth, achieves a win-win outcome compared to other scenarios by enhancing GDP and avoiding additional carbon reduction costs. The initial carbon emission efficiency in agriculture, chemicals, steel, electronics, water supply, and services all reached 1. Comparative analysis reveals that the sectors of electricity, chemicals, coal, and cement face higher emission reduction pressures, while agriculture and services experience relatively lower pressures.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-91114-9Industry carbon quotasExtensive growthIntensive growthCGEZSG-DEA
spellingShingle Lang Tang
Peng Wang
Xiaoyu Liu
Songyan Ren
Haihua Mo
Hai Tao
Jiabao Cao
Impact of economic growth patterns on carbon quota allocation by industry in China: extensive or intensive
Scientific Reports
Industry carbon quotas
Extensive growth
Intensive growth
CGE
ZSG-DEA
title Impact of economic growth patterns on carbon quota allocation by industry in China: extensive or intensive
title_full Impact of economic growth patterns on carbon quota allocation by industry in China: extensive or intensive
title_fullStr Impact of economic growth patterns on carbon quota allocation by industry in China: extensive or intensive
title_full_unstemmed Impact of economic growth patterns on carbon quota allocation by industry in China: extensive or intensive
title_short Impact of economic growth patterns on carbon quota allocation by industry in China: extensive or intensive
title_sort impact of economic growth patterns on carbon quota allocation by industry in china extensive or intensive
topic Industry carbon quotas
Extensive growth
Intensive growth
CGE
ZSG-DEA
url https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-91114-9
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AT pengwang impactofeconomicgrowthpatternsoncarbonquotaallocationbyindustryinchinaextensiveorintensive
AT xiaoyuliu impactofeconomicgrowthpatternsoncarbonquotaallocationbyindustryinchinaextensiveorintensive
AT songyanren impactofeconomicgrowthpatternsoncarbonquotaallocationbyindustryinchinaextensiveorintensive
AT haihuamo impactofeconomicgrowthpatternsoncarbonquotaallocationbyindustryinchinaextensiveorintensive
AT haitao impactofeconomicgrowthpatternsoncarbonquotaallocationbyindustryinchinaextensiveorintensive
AT jiabaocao impactofeconomicgrowthpatternsoncarbonquotaallocationbyindustryinchinaextensiveorintensive