Impact of economic growth patterns on carbon quota allocation by industry in China: extensive or intensive
Abstract Economic growth is closely related to carbon emissions, and determining the appropriate emission reduction targets for various sectors under different economic models has always been a challenge. This paper utilizes an Energy-Economic-Environment CGE model to simulate two types of economic...
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| Format: | Article |
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Nature Portfolio
2025-04-01
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| Series: | Scientific Reports |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-91114-9 |
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| author | Lang Tang Peng Wang Xiaoyu Liu Songyan Ren Haihua Mo Hai Tao Jiabao Cao |
| author_facet | Lang Tang Peng Wang Xiaoyu Liu Songyan Ren Haihua Mo Hai Tao Jiabao Cao |
| author_sort | Lang Tang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Economic growth is closely related to carbon emissions, and determining the appropriate emission reduction targets for various sectors under different economic models has always been a challenge. This paper utilizes an Energy-Economic-Environment CGE model to simulate two types of economic growth models: extensive and intensive. Four economic growth scenarios are defined, and initial carbon quota allocations for various sectors are obtained for China at two key points: the peak year (2029) and the post-peak year (2035). The ZSG-DEA model is applied, considering the principles of fairness and efficiency, to iterate carbon efficiency across 33 industries and obtain quota adjustment values. The results indicate that the innovation-driven scenario, representing intensive growth, achieves a win-win outcome compared to other scenarios by enhancing GDP and avoiding additional carbon reduction costs. The initial carbon emission efficiency in agriculture, chemicals, steel, electronics, water supply, and services all reached 1. Comparative analysis reveals that the sectors of electricity, chemicals, coal, and cement face higher emission reduction pressures, while agriculture and services experience relatively lower pressures. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-e8645172b5fb4d82902eb2d5039f0398 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-04-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj-art-e8645172b5fb4d82902eb2d5039f03982025-08-20T03:18:32ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222025-04-0115111710.1038/s41598-025-91114-9Impact of economic growth patterns on carbon quota allocation by industry in China: extensive or intensiveLang Tang0Peng Wang1Xiaoyu Liu2Songyan Ren3Haihua Mo4Hai Tao5Jiabao Cao6School of Energy Science and Engineering, University of Science and Technology of ChinaGuangzhou Institute of Energy Conversion, Chinese Academy of SciencesGuangzhou Institute of Energy Conversion, Chinese Academy of SciencesGuangzhou Institute of Energy Conversion, Chinese Academy of SciencesSchool of Energy Science and Engineering, University of Science and Technology of ChinaGuangzhou Institute of Energy Conversion, Chinese Academy of SciencesGuangzhou Institute of Energy Conversion, Chinese Academy of SciencesAbstract Economic growth is closely related to carbon emissions, and determining the appropriate emission reduction targets for various sectors under different economic models has always been a challenge. This paper utilizes an Energy-Economic-Environment CGE model to simulate two types of economic growth models: extensive and intensive. Four economic growth scenarios are defined, and initial carbon quota allocations for various sectors are obtained for China at two key points: the peak year (2029) and the post-peak year (2035). The ZSG-DEA model is applied, considering the principles of fairness and efficiency, to iterate carbon efficiency across 33 industries and obtain quota adjustment values. The results indicate that the innovation-driven scenario, representing intensive growth, achieves a win-win outcome compared to other scenarios by enhancing GDP and avoiding additional carbon reduction costs. The initial carbon emission efficiency in agriculture, chemicals, steel, electronics, water supply, and services all reached 1. Comparative analysis reveals that the sectors of electricity, chemicals, coal, and cement face higher emission reduction pressures, while agriculture and services experience relatively lower pressures.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-91114-9Industry carbon quotasExtensive growthIntensive growthCGEZSG-DEA |
| spellingShingle | Lang Tang Peng Wang Xiaoyu Liu Songyan Ren Haihua Mo Hai Tao Jiabao Cao Impact of economic growth patterns on carbon quota allocation by industry in China: extensive or intensive Scientific Reports Industry carbon quotas Extensive growth Intensive growth CGE ZSG-DEA |
| title | Impact of economic growth patterns on carbon quota allocation by industry in China: extensive or intensive |
| title_full | Impact of economic growth patterns on carbon quota allocation by industry in China: extensive or intensive |
| title_fullStr | Impact of economic growth patterns on carbon quota allocation by industry in China: extensive or intensive |
| title_full_unstemmed | Impact of economic growth patterns on carbon quota allocation by industry in China: extensive or intensive |
| title_short | Impact of economic growth patterns on carbon quota allocation by industry in China: extensive or intensive |
| title_sort | impact of economic growth patterns on carbon quota allocation by industry in china extensive or intensive |
| topic | Industry carbon quotas Extensive growth Intensive growth CGE ZSG-DEA |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-91114-9 |
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